French Head for a Cliffhanger Vote
Rizwan Ghani
April 21, 2007
Therefore, logically she can be the first female president of France. But then defying logic is what politics is all about. Isn’t it? And that is why France is all set for cliffhanger vote.
Everything is open for the forthcoming first round of presidential election in which French will directly vote to elect (their) president for a five-year term. Second round of the election will be held on May 6.
Pundits predict a photo finish between Nicolas Sarkozy head of Union for a Popular Movement (UMP) and Segolene Royal leading Socialist Party (PS). Other leading contenders are Francois Bayrou from Union for French Democracy (UDF) and Jean-Marie Le Pen of National Front (FN). Reports and polls show that over 17 million voters are still undecided, predicting close results.
It has prompted calls from senior socialists prompting Royal to strike some sort of alliance with UDF to keep Sarkozy out of power. Royal has however said that she is keeping her calm and inner strength. She was skeptic of old socialist who she believes did little to simply things for her. In all probability, she was alluding to challenge of balancing social policies versus open market challenges. Sarkozy, on his part has ruled out any coalition.
However, in all probability Royale clearly is keeping her options open at this stage and there may be a shift in Sarkozy’s coalition posture based on 2nd round results. If he maintains his current no-alliance stance, it can easily push Royal to make history as the first female French president.
The polls predict that whatever the result in first round former FM Sarkozy will ultimately defeat Royal, aspiring to become first woman president of France with a narrow marging of 1.5 percent. The predictions are UMP will get 53.5 percent votes and PS 52 percent. However, there are other polls and media reports showing difference in victory margins as wide as 7 percent. But so are the 3 percent poll error margins and also the views depending on which newspaper is reporting- Right, center or far left or right.
What are the election issues? What is at stake in these elections? In addition, what will the world see and learn from the French elections.
Broadly speaking within France sluggish economy and growing number of jobless are big challenges for the leadership. Current plight of immigrant French and French identity is another challenge for politicians in wake of past promises resting on liberty, equality and fraternity. Schooling and school dropouts is another political hurdle.
Growing racial discrimination and allegations of failures on part of both political leadership and minority leaders to end it permanently is a burning election issue. Majority of minority voters believe they have been deceived by the politicians and leadership who failed to fulfill their promises. The French minorities feel deeply isolated, “ghettoized”, discriminated may it be routine affairs, jobs or police behavior.
After international reaction to last year’s police chase resulting in deaths followed by country wide protests including arson attacks presidential candidates have stressed on national identity. It has been termed as bad omen for French multiculturalism by international observers.
With flat cum falling birth rate and growing number of baby boomers, France should have been more open to immigration backed by equal opportunity atmosphere. The election manifestoes of four major political parties support selective immigration policies. Pen of FN has solicited to work for zero immigration.
Human resource experts however believe that controlling flow of immigrants are a drawback to country’s economy. And like Russia and most European states experiencing low birthrate will have to review their policies to keep their economies viable in international market. Financial incentives and other policies are simply not helping the population surge in these countries. And France is no exception.
But after last standoff between Paris and ghettoized minorities including residents of Marseille the experts have raised red flags including failure of French melting pot that rest of Europe was closely watching mainly from economic and market based needs.
French rural sector is also turning into a challenge. With calls for withdrawing subsidies, French leadership needs to find practical alternates to save country’s agri-sector failure resulting in more unemployment. It will be an additional burden in wake of deteriorating race relations and already sluggish economy.
Farm subsidies are at the center of future of French agri-sector that is the second largest exporter after US. What most opposers are unaware of is the subsidy percentage that reaches the average farmer. The misspent money is at the core problem. Unless French leaders address the issue as and when subsidies will be withdrawn it will hit country’s agri-sector the hardest.
Paris based experts including Pierre Boulanger, investigated the distribution of subsidies in France. It is believed that the money from Europe is misspent and runs against citizens' interests.
The lion's share goes to the giant agribusinesses and cereal farms in northern France, renowned for their heavy dependence on fertilizers and pesticides. "The fact is we are in a totally frozen situation," he says. "The past big beneficiaries are still the big beneficiaries of today and tomorrow."
Like African coffee growers who reportedly are getting almost same rates for decades their product the average French, and even American farmers have experienced little increase in annual income in last twenty years. In all probability in face of entrenched billionaire multinationals new political leadership like their outgoing predecessor will have little say.
International community with tongue in cheek style is predicting “warming-up” of relations. However, there is a consensus that there will be little progress on real issues and long term policies. With Bush pushing his Iraq troop surge strategy and no end to Iraq situation there is little that outside world or for that matter most of the Europe can do at this stage is but wait, and in all probability French leadership will follow the wait and see policy.
Interestingly, despite strong headway in international energy market both by Chinese and Russia through trade and commerce treaties both Britain and US are peddling in the opposite direction.
I am personally of the view that if Royal can manage to undo her public perception that she is an aristocrat trying to play nice to ordinary people she can narrow the difference with Sarkozy who has his own “rage” problems termed as “over-zealous” leader. And his past association with Chirac is not helping him either.
But it all depends on how Royale plays her photogenic charisma in both rounds. Reportedly, it were her feminine charms and mother of four appeal that won her the leadership of PS in the first place. If she manages to narrow the lead, she can undo her expected loss by entering into coalition.
I would extend the argument a step further and dare to add that at this stage French election is more about personalities than policies.
Therefore, logically she can be the first female president of France. But then defying logic is what politics is all about. Isn’t it? And that is why France is all set for cliffhanger vote.
Everything is open for the forthcoming first round of presidential election in which French will directly vote to elect (their) president for a five-year term. Second round of the election will be held on May 6.
Pundits predict a photo finish between Nicolas Sarkozy head of Union for a Popular Movement (UMP) and Segolene Royal leading Socialist Party (PS). Other leading contenders are Francois Bayrou from Union for French Democracy (UDF) and Jean-Marie Le Pen of National Front (FN). Reports and polls show that over 17 million voters are still undecided, predicting close results.
It has prompted calls from senior socialists prompting Royal to strike some sort of alliance with UDF to keep Sarkozy out of power. Royal has however said that she is keeping her calm and inner strength. She was skeptic of old socialist who she believes did little to simply things for her. In all probability, she was alluding to challenge of balancing social policies versus open market challenges. Sarkozy, on his part has ruled out any coalition.
However, in all probability Royale clearly is keeping her options open at this stage and there may be a shift in Sarkozy’s coalition posture based on 2nd round results. If he maintains his current no-alliance stance, it can easily push Royal to make history as the first female French president.
The polls predict that whatever the result in first round former FM Sarkozy will ultimately defeat Royal, aspiring to become first woman president of France with a narrow marging of 1.5 percent. The predictions are UMP will get 53.5 percent votes and PS 52 percent. However, there are other polls and media reports showing difference in victory margins as wide as 7 percent. But so are the 3 percent poll error margins and also the views depending on which newspaper is reporting- Right, center or far left or right.
What are the election issues? What is at stake in these elections? In addition, what will the world see and learn from the French elections.
Broadly speaking within France sluggish economy and growing number of jobless are big challenges for the leadership. Current plight of immigrant French and French identity is another challenge for politicians in wake of past promises resting on liberty, equality and fraternity. Schooling and school dropouts is another political hurdle.
Growing racial discrimination and allegations of failures on part of both political leadership and minority leaders to end it permanently is a burning election issue. Majority of minority voters believe they have been deceived by the politicians and leadership who failed to fulfill their promises. The French minorities feel deeply isolated, “ghettoized”, discriminated may it be routine affairs, jobs or police behavior.
After international reaction to last year’s police chase resulting in deaths followed by country wide protests including arson attacks presidential candidates have stressed on national identity. It has been termed as bad omen for French multiculturalism by international observers.
With flat cum falling birth rate and growing number of baby boomers, France should have been more open to immigration backed by equal opportunity atmosphere. The election manifestoes of four major political parties support selective immigration policies. Pen of FN has solicited to work for zero immigration.
Human resource experts however believe that controlling flow of immigrants are a drawback to country’s economy. And like Russia and most European states experiencing low birthrate will have to review their policies to keep their economies viable in international market. Financial incentives and other policies are simply not helping the population surge in these countries. And France is no exception.
But after last standoff between Paris and ghettoized minorities including residents of Marseille the experts have raised red flags including failure of French melting pot that rest of Europe was closely watching mainly from economic and market based needs.
French rural sector is also turning into a challenge. With calls for withdrawing subsidies, French leadership needs to find practical alternates to save country’s agri-sector failure resulting in more unemployment. It will be an additional burden in wake of deteriorating race relations and already sluggish economy.
Farm subsidies are at the center of future of French agri-sector that is the second largest exporter after US. What most opposers are unaware of is the subsidy percentage that reaches the average farmer. The misspent money is at the core problem. Unless French leaders address the issue as and when subsidies will be withdrawn it will hit country’s agri-sector the hardest.
Paris based experts including Pierre Boulanger, investigated the distribution of subsidies in France. It is believed that the money from Europe is misspent and runs against citizens' interests.
The lion's share goes to the giant agribusinesses and cereal farms in northern France, renowned for their heavy dependence on fertilizers and pesticides. "The fact is we are in a totally frozen situation," he says. "The past big beneficiaries are still the big beneficiaries of today and tomorrow."
Like African coffee growers who reportedly are getting almost same rates for decades their product the average French, and even American farmers have experienced little increase in annual income in last twenty years. In all probability in face of entrenched billionaire multinationals new political leadership like their outgoing predecessor will have little say.
International community with tongue in cheek style is predicting “warming-up” of relations. However, there is a consensus that there will be little progress on real issues and long term policies. With Bush pushing his Iraq troop surge strategy and no end to Iraq situation there is little that outside world or for that matter most of the Europe can do at this stage is but wait, and in all probability French leadership will follow the wait and see policy.
Interestingly, despite strong headway in international energy market both by Chinese and Russia through trade and commerce treaties both Britain and US are peddling in the opposite direction.
I am personally of the view that if Royal can manage to undo her public perception that she is an aristocrat trying to play nice to ordinary people she can narrow the difference with Sarkozy who has his own “rage” problems termed as “over-zealous” leader. And his past association with Chirac is not helping him either.
But it all depends on how Royale plays her photogenic charisma in both rounds. Reportedly, it were her feminine charms and mother of four appeal that won her the leadership of PS in the first place. If she manages to narrow the lead, she can undo her expected loss by entering into coalition.
I would extend the argument a step further and dare to add that at this stage French election is more about personalities than policies.
Therefore, logically she can be the first female president of France. But then defying logic is what politics is all about. Isn’t it? And that is why France is all set for cliffhanger vote.
Print
Email
