If YOU Were The Decider

Keith Hazelton
A billion here, a billion there and pretty soon you're talking some real money, as it often is inaccurately attributed to late Illinois Senator Everett Dirksen.

The cost of our unilateral global war on terror since 9/11 is approaching a very real $500 billion, all financed “off budget, off balance sheet,” by the Federal Reserve, a privately held corporation owned by its member-banks, which creates Treasury Bonds from its magic, never-overdrawn checkbook.

A half-trillion of additional national debt which now approaches $9 Trillion, not even counted with “normal” budget deficits (about $2.4 trillion in this administration alone), but together comprising this already staggering burden our children and grandchildren will inherit.

Treasury bonds created out of thin air by the Fed are sold to investors, more than half now to foreign governments, including China and Saudi Arabia, on which we now are dependent for financing to keep our economic and war machines running.

As New York Times columnist Paul Krugman has observed, “These days Americans make a living by selling each other houses, paid for with money borrowed from China.” He's not far off when it comes to our newfound dependence on our foreign “friends.” How long into the future may we count on their largesse?

No wonder our economy is doing well. $500 billion of fiscal stimulus, over and above the several trillion of high-end tax cuts in 2001 and 2003. What better way to help stimulate an economy than to keep giving money to those whose occupation is to break very expensive things like cruise missiles and fighter jets and tanks. Things that constantly must be replaced, and quickly, lest the fighting “over there” become fighting “over here.”

(Forget you ever heard that the Iraq War, Operation Iraqi Freedom, originally – Freudianly – code named Operation Iraqi Liberation – "OIL," would pay for itself with the sale of Iraqi oil.)

To some though, the amount is practically insignificant. At $100 billion a year, the global war on terror represents only four percent of a $2.5 trillion annual government budget, and a mere 0.8 of one percent of the country's annual Gross Domestic Product of $12.5 trillion. But it does help stimulate the economy.

It is important to note, however, that government spending of any kind helps stimulate the economy, a John Maynard Keynes theory proven in the Great Depression, and military spending is but one example.

Much else – much good – could have been done with a half-trillion Washingtons in the last five years, equally economically stimulative. What would you have done with $500 billion if you were the Decider? Here are several ideas on my list:


With $500 billion, for example, we could have given $1,600 checks payable to every man, woman, child and illegal immigrant residing in this country to spend or save as they saw fit.

2,000 a year could have been spent on health care and health care insurance for each of the 50 million uninsured or underinsured Americans.

Non-defense research and development, about $300 billion a year, could have been increased by a third - $100 billion - each year. Maybe those cures for cancer or diabetes or AIDS instead would have been discovered.

Each of the 25 million 18-23-year-olds in the country could have been given $16,000 for four years of undergraduate college education ($4,000 each year).

How about $25,000 for installation of solar electric and heating capability in each of 20 million homes around the country?

One million new teachers, professors, doctors, nurses and social workers could have been hired at an average wage and benefit compensation of $100,000 per year.

Or maybe the 100 largest US metropolitan areas could have received $5 billion each over the last 5 years to build, upgrade and subsidize mass transit systems which would reduce our dependence on imported oil.

For crying out loud, we could have built 2,000 bridges to nowhere, at $250 million each - 40 in each state, not only one in Alaska - and not a shot would have been fired, not a single instance of traumatic brain injury or limb amputation and, even better, no collateral damage, that reprehensible “1984 newspeak” term for war-zone maiming and murdering of innocent civilians including children.

Even the interest alone on $500 billion, say $20 billion a year for the next, well, forever, could have been used for something far more beneficial to Americans than hand grenades and body armor.

Or, and it's just a thought, we could have decided not to engage in a pre-emptive, regime-changing, unpopular war, ruining our image and further damaging our credit worldwide in the process, and saved all that money, reducing the crushing burden of debt we are in the process of dumping upon our next generations. Likely they will not look kindly on their "inheritance."

How would you spend $500 billion if you were the Decider? Send me an email with your ideas.
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Keith Hazelton

Keith Hazelton is a wealth manager and economic adviser living the American Dream in Oklahoma City with wife Suellen and three dogs, all of whom closely supervised by a flame-tip Persian cat.

Two quotes from many years ago seem apropos to the themes discussed in my essays.

The first, from English author Robert Hardy (1840-1928): "If a path to the better there be, it begins with a look at the worst."

The second, attributed to many who came later but the original idea of French writer Paul Valery (1871-1945): "The trouble with our times is that the future is not what it used to be."

Anecdotal Economics is devoted to commentary about current economic events, of which there are many...

It's title derives from the eventual failure of many, if not most, mathematical models devised by economists, market strategists, futurists, astrologers and other prognosticators to predict an unknowable future. The models always work beautifully, until they don't. Then we start over and build new models...

My other website's title, Keith Hazelton's Provisional Truth, is derived from my belief all truth is provisional, that is, "conditional, provided for a temporary need but subject to change," according to Webster's.

Like an earth-centric universe, yesterday's "truth" has become today's fables, superstitions and discarded dogmas and doctrines. Today's "heresy" may become tomorrow's truth. As such - like tax law - truth is provisional and always subject to change.

Everything we "know" yet may be altered, refined, perhaps someday proven wrong, so it's advantageous to keep an open mind.

But what do I know? Send me an email, I welcome your version of the truth.