Pelosi, Iran and the Window of Opportunity
Rizwan Ghani
April 10, 2007
At the individual level, released British naval crew has made it back home and leaving few all would have been rich by selling their stories, had MoD not withdrawn its permission to sell their stories. While in the corridors of power at the international level, Iran has offered a window of opportunity for the policy makers to choose between peace or darkness of death and destruction.
The capture and release of the royal naval crew, Blair’s resolve to give diplomacy a chance and timing of Pelosi’s ME visit and the Syrian role in light of ISG may all be part of the unfolding this (peace) opportunity. And if somehow a common ground is found this opportunity could be turned into a reality for collective good, peace in the region and cheaper oil.
In all probability Iran has used British crew’s release to make up for the lost opportunity to project country’s nuclear stance in last UNSC meeting. It is opined that by doing so he has sent a message to the world that if Iran is treated respectfully it can reciprocate with equal warmth.
Ahmadinejad’s handshakes ceremony was also an attempt to quell speculations about the split in ruling elite. And in all probability the step was also part of the strategy to seek return of five missing Iranian diplomats in Iraq on the humanitarian basis.
It is argued that it is time to engage Iran diplomatically to resolve the issues of Iranian diplomats and (its) nuclear standoff with the UNSC. Bush, EU and even EU-3 plus Germany support diplomatic engagement with Iran on its nuclear issue but precondition of freezing nuclear programme for a meaningful dialogue has frozen everything.
London’s use of diplomacy instead of force has eased situation both at the tactical and strategic level. By doing so Blair in addition to getting his marines back has also achieved three benefits. 1) Calmed the situation in capitals worldwide. 2) Minimized immediate prospects of another military confrontation in the region in presence of military hardware in the Gulf waters. 3) Has indirectly increased pressure on Bush to review his dead end policies in the region.
Pelosi’s ME trip has a role in these developments, also. Despite strong condemnation of her visit to Syria both by the Republicans and the Bush the release of crew backed with press reports shows that her presence made the crucial difference that in turn diffused prospects of another military confrontation in the region.
Similarly, in response to the Speaker’s visit Syria has reportedly shown willingness to engage in dialogue with Israel. It is equally encouraging news. President Assad statement to engage in dialogue with its neighbors reflects the resolve to restore peace in the neighborhood.
Reportedly, meeting has also resulted in steps that are likely to improve surveillance of Syrian- Iraq border by Damascus; there is hope over Lebanon with crossover to Iran. However, without progress on the issue of Golan Heights expecting an overnight change would be rather premature at this stage.
With the positive atmosphere created as a result of Pelosi’s ME visit there is need to further strengthen it. In this regard it is equally important to initiate steps to resolve the Palestine issue in accordance to UN Resolutions and Arab Peace Plan. This in turn can bring Arab world on single platform.
Olmert’s statement to hold discussions with Israeli neighbors has been welcomed but it needs to be substantiated with actions than words. The WB attacks and economic sanctions need to be reviewed to develop confidence as part of preparing a positive atmosphere to bring all parties back to the table in light of UN Resolutions and Arab peace plan having regional support for the initiation of the peace process.
It would be unrealistic to expect Pelosi’s well meaning “fact finding” visits to resolve ME’s chronic political and territorial standoffs in days but with willingness and trust there could always be light at the end of the tunnel. It is hoped that Pelosi equipped with first hand information would be more enlightened to help initiate the diplomatic processes to resolve these complex issues.
Despite Ahmadinejad’s claims of industrial scale uranium enrichment for power generation, Independent experts view Iran’s nuclear programme is still years away from achieving enrichment for military purposes. This leaves global community and IAEA with sufficient time to keep Iran in NPT therefore all out efforts should be made to engage Iran by offering economic and trade incentives instead of isolation and sanctions.
It will bring Iran back to international comity of nations, reduce poverty in the country and in turn sustain moderation at grassroots. In turn world will get a break in high oil prices held hostage to uncertainty in the Gulf. It will also help promote positive opinion about the modern world in Iranian public.
Since Iranian regime is willing to keep its nuclear sites open to IAEA inspections this opportunity should be availed with appropriate diplomacy.
In addition prospects of use of Russian technology of Light Enriched Uranium (LEU) for energy generation could be the way out over current Iranian nuclear standoff which is basically resting on international apprehensions about Iran’s actual nuclear ambitions. Installation of LEU technology can put to rest all such apprehensions and in turn help initiate diplomatic dialogue.
These developments can create a window of opportunity in which on one end IAEA will be able to perform its tasks in accordance to the agreed NPT protocols with unrestricted access to its nuclear sites including cameras while on the other end whatever apprehensions there are over Iran’s nuclear programme will end.
These developments will help to reduce oil price in international market.
Reportedly, today it takes 19-22 dollars to extract a barrel of oil and after processing it costs between 31-35 dollars. No one is able to understand as to why the barrel is trading around twice this price or even has sold around 80 dollars. There has been no real interruption in oil supply. International community needs to bring an end to price hike based on speculations and other unexplained reasons. International oil consumer watch dogs should take necessary steps to bring an end to this phenomenon to provide relief at grassroots. Majority of public in developing countries already living on dollar a day and hike in fuel prices adversely affects their plight.
Finally, London’s resolve in diplomacy not war, Pelosi’s courageous initiative to visit ME and Iran’s release of sailors has opened a window of opportunity to restore peace and security in the region for mutual benefits. It is time to further improve on these developments for multiple benefits. All of this may sound overly simplistic and optimistic but still it is doable. Look at the marines, who never thought of getting caught, then a quick release and now few if not all are set to make money out of their stories. Who says world is short of options. To me if there is a will there is a way. So let us push our diplomats to deliver so that we can fill up our SUVs and enjoy our weekends in sunshine and water or may be fly to some dreamland.
Rizwan Ghani
The capture and release of the royal naval crew, Blair’s resolve to give diplomacy a chance and timing of Pelosi’s ME visit and the Syrian role in light of ISG may all be part of the unfolding this (peace) opportunity. And if somehow a common ground is found this opportunity could be turned into a reality for collective good, peace in the region and cheaper oil.
In all probability Iran has used British crew’s release to make up for the lost opportunity to project country’s nuclear stance in last UNSC meeting. It is opined that by doing so he has sent a message to the world that if Iran is treated respectfully it can reciprocate with equal warmth.
Ahmadinejad’s handshakes ceremony was also an attempt to quell speculations about the split in ruling elite. And in all probability the step was also part of the strategy to seek return of five missing Iranian diplomats in Iraq on the humanitarian basis.
It is argued that it is time to engage Iran diplomatically to resolve the issues of Iranian diplomats and (its) nuclear standoff with the UNSC. Bush, EU and even EU-3 plus Germany support diplomatic engagement with Iran on its nuclear issue but precondition of freezing nuclear programme for a meaningful dialogue has frozen everything.
London’s use of diplomacy instead of force has eased situation both at the tactical and strategic level. By doing so Blair in addition to getting his marines back has also achieved three benefits. 1) Calmed the situation in capitals worldwide. 2) Minimized immediate prospects of another military confrontation in the region in presence of military hardware in the Gulf waters. 3) Has indirectly increased pressure on Bush to review his dead end policies in the region.
Pelosi’s ME trip has a role in these developments, also. Despite strong condemnation of her visit to Syria both by the Republicans and the Bush the release of crew backed with press reports shows that her presence made the crucial difference that in turn diffused prospects of another military confrontation in the region.
Similarly, in response to the Speaker’s visit Syria has reportedly shown willingness to engage in dialogue with Israel. It is equally encouraging news. President Assad statement to engage in dialogue with its neighbors reflects the resolve to restore peace in the neighborhood.
Reportedly, meeting has also resulted in steps that are likely to improve surveillance of Syrian- Iraq border by Damascus; there is hope over Lebanon with crossover to Iran. However, without progress on the issue of Golan Heights expecting an overnight change would be rather premature at this stage.
With the positive atmosphere created as a result of Pelosi’s ME visit there is need to further strengthen it. In this regard it is equally important to initiate steps to resolve the Palestine issue in accordance to UN Resolutions and Arab Peace Plan. This in turn can bring Arab world on single platform.
Olmert’s statement to hold discussions with Israeli neighbors has been welcomed but it needs to be substantiated with actions than words. The WB attacks and economic sanctions need to be reviewed to develop confidence as part of preparing a positive atmosphere to bring all parties back to the table in light of UN Resolutions and Arab peace plan having regional support for the initiation of the peace process.
It would be unrealistic to expect Pelosi’s well meaning “fact finding” visits to resolve ME’s chronic political and territorial standoffs in days but with willingness and trust there could always be light at the end of the tunnel. It is hoped that Pelosi equipped with first hand information would be more enlightened to help initiate the diplomatic processes to resolve these complex issues.
Despite Ahmadinejad’s claims of industrial scale uranium enrichment for power generation, Independent experts view Iran’s nuclear programme is still years away from achieving enrichment for military purposes. This leaves global community and IAEA with sufficient time to keep Iran in NPT therefore all out efforts should be made to engage Iran by offering economic and trade incentives instead of isolation and sanctions.
It will bring Iran back to international comity of nations, reduce poverty in the country and in turn sustain moderation at grassroots. In turn world will get a break in high oil prices held hostage to uncertainty in the Gulf. It will also help promote positive opinion about the modern world in Iranian public.
Since Iranian regime is willing to keep its nuclear sites open to IAEA inspections this opportunity should be availed with appropriate diplomacy.
In addition prospects of use of Russian technology of Light Enriched Uranium (LEU) for energy generation could be the way out over current Iranian nuclear standoff which is basically resting on international apprehensions about Iran’s actual nuclear ambitions. Installation of LEU technology can put to rest all such apprehensions and in turn help initiate diplomatic dialogue.
These developments can create a window of opportunity in which on one end IAEA will be able to perform its tasks in accordance to the agreed NPT protocols with unrestricted access to its nuclear sites including cameras while on the other end whatever apprehensions there are over Iran’s nuclear programme will end.
These developments will help to reduce oil price in international market.
Reportedly, today it takes 19-22 dollars to extract a barrel of oil and after processing it costs between 31-35 dollars. No one is able to understand as to why the barrel is trading around twice this price or even has sold around 80 dollars. There has been no real interruption in oil supply. International community needs to bring an end to price hike based on speculations and other unexplained reasons. International oil consumer watch dogs should take necessary steps to bring an end to this phenomenon to provide relief at grassroots. Majority of public in developing countries already living on dollar a day and hike in fuel prices adversely affects their plight.
Finally, London’s resolve in diplomacy not war, Pelosi’s courageous initiative to visit ME and Iran’s release of sailors has opened a window of opportunity to restore peace and security in the region for mutual benefits. It is time to further improve on these developments for multiple benefits. All of this may sound overly simplistic and optimistic but still it is doable. Look at the marines, who never thought of getting caught, then a quick release and now few if not all are set to make money out of their stories. Who says world is short of options. To me if there is a will there is a way. So let us push our diplomats to deliver so that we can fill up our SUVs and enjoy our weekends in sunshine and water or may be fly to some dreamland.
Rizwan Ghani
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