RUMORS, RUMORS AND MORE RUMORS
Earl J. Prignitz
February 09, 2007
Martin Luther King, Jr. once said, "Our lives begin to end the day we become silent about things that matter."
Well, there are a lot of things that matter to me, but the one that really concerns me the most right now is all the rumors of war with Iran that keep surfacing. We are hearing the same kinds of rhetoric that we heard during the months building up to the war with Iraq. You will recall the drumbeat about the dangers of Iraq's nuclear weaponry and what we were going to do about it, and then before long we went to war. We are hearing similar threats repeated once again.
Then there are the drumbeats of war that are beginning to sound from several other directions. In Washington, the transfer of Admiral William 'Fox' Fallon from Pacific Command to run Central Command (which runs the Iraq war and the Afghan mission) startled the Army and Marines, who had seen these as ground wars. But Central Command also includes Iran.
And what's going on with the current bustle around U.S. naval stations? According to Time, the Navy has issued “Prepare to Deploy Orders” (PTDOs) to a strike group including minesweepers, a submarine, an Aegis class cruiser, and a mine hunter. Taken alongside disclosures that the chief of naval operations asked his planners for a rundown of how a blockade of Iranian oil ports would work, these military preparations led Time to conclude cautiously that the United States “may be preparing for war with Iran.”
Military officials downplay these recent moves as routine. But given the administration's recent history of manufacturing threat, misreading intelligence, and misrepresenting war plans, it is tempting to read between the lines—especially when increasingly hot rhetoric is coming from Washington.
Then there are the Iranians, who for their part, seem to be closing ranks against what they perceive as the mounting threat of military action. Former President Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, who is seen as a relative moderate in Tehran terms and was defeated in the last presidential election by the fiery Mahmoud Ahmedinejad, said last week that "the enemies of the Islamic Republic have plans against the country."
Rafsanjani warned the "arrogant powers" (the United States and Britain) against launching a new crisis in the Middle East. "They are creating problems for themselves and the region that will not be confined to Iran. This is a fire that could burn many others," he went on. "They are looking for a pretext."
Think of the Absurdity of War
Given the ongoing conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan, and the sheer cost of existing military commitments, it would seem that the last thing the United States can afford right now is another war. But as retired Air Force Colonel Sam Gardiner observes, the Bush administration didn't apply the “making sense” filter over the past four years in Iraq. It is therefore unlikely to use common sense in evaluating whether to attack Iran.
I hope you can understand why I am concerned!
Well, there are a lot of things that matter to me, but the one that really concerns me the most right now is all the rumors of war with Iran that keep surfacing. We are hearing the same kinds of rhetoric that we heard during the months building up to the war with Iraq. You will recall the drumbeat about the dangers of Iraq's nuclear weaponry and what we were going to do about it, and then before long we went to war. We are hearing similar threats repeated once again.
Then there are the drumbeats of war that are beginning to sound from several other directions. In Washington, the transfer of Admiral William 'Fox' Fallon from Pacific Command to run Central Command (which runs the Iraq war and the Afghan mission) startled the Army and Marines, who had seen these as ground wars. But Central Command also includes Iran.
And what's going on with the current bustle around U.S. naval stations? According to Time, the Navy has issued “Prepare to Deploy Orders” (PTDOs) to a strike group including minesweepers, a submarine, an Aegis class cruiser, and a mine hunter. Taken alongside disclosures that the chief of naval operations asked his planners for a rundown of how a blockade of Iranian oil ports would work, these military preparations led Time to conclude cautiously that the United States “may be preparing for war with Iran.”
Military officials downplay these recent moves as routine. But given the administration's recent history of manufacturing threat, misreading intelligence, and misrepresenting war plans, it is tempting to read between the lines—especially when increasingly hot rhetoric is coming from Washington.
Then there are the Iranians, who for their part, seem to be closing ranks against what they perceive as the mounting threat of military action. Former President Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, who is seen as a relative moderate in Tehran terms and was defeated in the last presidential election by the fiery Mahmoud Ahmedinejad, said last week that "the enemies of the Islamic Republic have plans against the country."
Rafsanjani warned the "arrogant powers" (the United States and Britain) against launching a new crisis in the Middle East. "They are creating problems for themselves and the region that will not be confined to Iran. This is a fire that could burn many others," he went on. "They are looking for a pretext."
Think of the Absurdity of War
Given the ongoing conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan, and the sheer cost of existing military commitments, it would seem that the last thing the United States can afford right now is another war. But as retired Air Force Colonel Sam Gardiner observes, the Bush administration didn't apply the “making sense” filter over the past four years in Iraq. It is therefore unlikely to use common sense in evaluating whether to attack Iran.
I hope you can understand why I am concerned!
Print
Email
