Bird Flu… Coming Soon to a Place Near You!
Thomas Dawson
August 22, 2005
This pandemic is for the birds! It appears that birds around the world will become infected. Certainly there is substantial danger that the avian flu could spread to people and become a threat to mankind. But the media is getting carried away, as if a human pandemic is a foregone conclusion. It is far more likely that we will suffer severe economic repercussions from the loss of birds and swine.
It is easy to view the migratory birds as the primary culprits in spreading the disease. They certainly have made it impossible for us to contain it. These migratory birds do not seem to be dying in very large numbers. This would indicate that they tend to develop immunity. It also means that they become carriers of the flu. Now, many of these infected birds are migrating toward Europe. In the coming weeks, many arctic birds will begin their migratory flights toward the North American continent. There is concern that some of these may be infected as well.
Aside from some migratory birds dying from the flu, the governments have been killing many thousands of infected domestic birds in Mongolia and China and more recently in Kazakhstan and Russia.
The avian flu will probably eventually infect our poultry and swine farmers in North America and Europe. This alone could be devastating and would increase the likelihood of multiple mutations. For this reason, domestic flocks will have to be eradicated as soon as the infection is discovered. If infections become widespread, the ensuing unavailability of pork and poultry could cause economic hardship. The price of other protein foods would skyrocket.
Depending whom you listen to, less than sixty people in Asia have died of avian flu in the past three years. Forty-two of them have died in Viet Nam. There are a number of variations of avian flu, but the consensus is that a particular strain (H5N1) poses the greatest danger to humans. It is known that this strain can be transmitted from birds to humans. This strain has also been known to infect and kill swine. It appears that this strain can acquire or exchange genetic attributes from other strains of flu. Swine flu not only easily infects humans but it is also able to spread from one human to another. This is one of the main reasons for the regular flu season we experience every year. It is thought that a very deadly strain is likely to develop when the H5N1 strain infects swine that already have swine flu and spreads from pig to person. It could then spread from person to person, causing a worldwide epidemic or pandemic.
Because it has been known to pass from birds to humans, a similar scenario could occur if a bird was to infect someone who already had a contagious flu.
The problem will not become out of control until a strain of deadly flu can migrate from person to person. When and if this does happen, people traveling from one place to another will spread the flu very quickly. Tens of thousands of people pass in and out of our ports and airfields from Asia every day. The same thing happens with Europe. Once this avian flu can pass between people, the whole world is endangered.
At this point in time, there are no vaccines for the H5N1 strain. Even if there were, chances are that any pandemic outbreak would be made by a mutation or different strain that had finally become infectious from person to person in humans. A new vaccine would have to be developed to handle the mutated strain.
There is an antiviral drug that is claimed to be effective against the H5N1 when used within 48 hours of infection. It is sold under the name Tamiflu. Another drug sold under the name Relenza is also supposed to be effective.
The World Health Organization (WTO) has real concerns that a contagious form of avian flu that infects people will develop, and will quickly spread around the world.
The government of Australia is encouraging input from the health sector and others for a potential plan to contain the virus, should it break out in Australia.
The Netherlands government has ordered all birds to be contained indoors, effective 8/22/2005.
It is a good thing to see that responsible governments and agencies are taking precautions, but lets not get into a panic before we have proof of a real emergency.
It is easy to view the migratory birds as the primary culprits in spreading the disease. They certainly have made it impossible for us to contain it. These migratory birds do not seem to be dying in very large numbers. This would indicate that they tend to develop immunity. It also means that they become carriers of the flu. Now, many of these infected birds are migrating toward Europe. In the coming weeks, many arctic birds will begin their migratory flights toward the North American continent. There is concern that some of these may be infected as well.
Aside from some migratory birds dying from the flu, the governments have been killing many thousands of infected domestic birds in Mongolia and China and more recently in Kazakhstan and Russia.
The avian flu will probably eventually infect our poultry and swine farmers in North America and Europe. This alone could be devastating and would increase the likelihood of multiple mutations. For this reason, domestic flocks will have to be eradicated as soon as the infection is discovered. If infections become widespread, the ensuing unavailability of pork and poultry could cause economic hardship. The price of other protein foods would skyrocket.
Depending whom you listen to, less than sixty people in Asia have died of avian flu in the past three years. Forty-two of them have died in Viet Nam. There are a number of variations of avian flu, but the consensus is that a particular strain (H5N1) poses the greatest danger to humans. It is known that this strain can be transmitted from birds to humans. This strain has also been known to infect and kill swine. It appears that this strain can acquire or exchange genetic attributes from other strains of flu. Swine flu not only easily infects humans but it is also able to spread from one human to another. This is one of the main reasons for the regular flu season we experience every year. It is thought that a very deadly strain is likely to develop when the H5N1 strain infects swine that already have swine flu and spreads from pig to person. It could then spread from person to person, causing a worldwide epidemic or pandemic.
Because it has been known to pass from birds to humans, a similar scenario could occur if a bird was to infect someone who already had a contagious flu.
The problem will not become out of control until a strain of deadly flu can migrate from person to person. When and if this does happen, people traveling from one place to another will spread the flu very quickly. Tens of thousands of people pass in and out of our ports and airfields from Asia every day. The same thing happens with Europe. Once this avian flu can pass between people, the whole world is endangered.
At this point in time, there are no vaccines for the H5N1 strain. Even if there were, chances are that any pandemic outbreak would be made by a mutation or different strain that had finally become infectious from person to person in humans. A new vaccine would have to be developed to handle the mutated strain.
There is an antiviral drug that is claimed to be effective against the H5N1 when used within 48 hours of infection. It is sold under the name Tamiflu. Another drug sold under the name Relenza is also supposed to be effective.
The World Health Organization (WTO) has real concerns that a contagious form of avian flu that infects people will develop, and will quickly spread around the world.
The government of Australia is encouraging input from the health sector and others for a potential plan to contain the virus, should it break out in Australia.
The Netherlands government has ordered all birds to be contained indoors, effective 8/22/2005.
It is a good thing to see that responsible governments and agencies are taking precautions, but lets not get into a panic before we have proof of a real emergency.
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