A victory for Hamas?
Claude Salhani
August 16, 2005
Will Israel's unilateral withdrawal from the Gaza Strip after 38 years of occupation, ironically be claimed as a unilateral victory by Hamas? Will the Israeli withdrawal offer the region another chance for peace? Or will it instead plunge the Middle East into greater turmoil and violence if Palestinian Islamist groups perceive this as a sign of weakness from Israel?
While most of the world -- and the media in particular -- is concentrating on the issue of the 8,000 Israeli settlers being forced out of 21 Gaza settlements and the humanitarian aspect of families forced to give up land, homes and communities, no doubt a tragedy in its own right, a more pertinent question should be, how will the Palestinians react to the evacuation. Will they see it as an opportunity to encourage Israel to follow up with more withdrawals from West Bank settlements, allowing them to build a viable state? Or instead, will they hinder the withdrawal with Qassam rockets and suicide bombings?
"The real story is how the Palestinians will handle this," Edward Walker Jr. president of the Middle East Institute, a former U.S. ambassador who served in Israel and Egypt, and a former deputy assistant secretary of state for Near Eastern Affairs, told United Press International.
What Walker means is if the Palestinians will try to show themselves and the world that they are able to adequately manage territory handed back to them, and in what manner will they govern those areas. Will the transition be smooth, or will the extremists get away with fomenting trouble and inciting violence?
"Thus far Abu Mazen (Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas) has done a fabulous job getting the (Palestinian) security forces into consultations with the Israelis. So far he has been able to meet the test," said Walker.
But tests in the Middle East have a habit of being tricky at the best of times.
Following Israel's decision to evacuate south Lebanon in May 2000 after 22 years of occupation, Hezbollah, the Lebanese Shiite paramilitary organization, claimed it was its unrelenting harassment of Israeli troops that finally forced out Israel. Hezbollah claimed it was the first real military victory by Arab forces over Israel.
While Israel's evacuation of south Lebanon may not have been a true defeat for Israel in any real military terms, Hezbollah, and particularly the Palestinian Islamist organizations such as the Islamic Resistance Movement, better known as Hamas, saw this as a great Arab victory.
Now Israel fears the same could happen with the Gaza pullout.
"I think that Hamas are smart and have smart people who will try to paint it (the withdrawal) as a victory. Just because you get rid of settlers does not mean you get rid of the occupation. The Israelis have the capacity to run back in," said Walker.
"There is no doubt Hamas will not view the withdrawal as a victory," David Makovsky, director of the Project on the Middle East Peace at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy told UPI.
And that worries Israel. Sometime last year when Israel first toyed with the idea of leaving Gaza, regardless of whether an agreement with the Palestinians was reached or not, an Israeli official who, at the time spoke on condition of anonymity, told UPI that "Israel would never again permit another South Lebanon."
He was of course referring to the evacuation of South Lebanon that gave Hezbollah its "victory" and hope to Hamas.
Hezbollah perceived Israel's sudden abandonment of southern Lebanon as a clear military victory. With the peace process all but dead -- Israel remains cognizant that it cannot afford a repetition of the Lebanon fiasco.
The Israeli official told UPI that under no circumstances would Hamas be allowed to look at Israel's Gaza pullout as a victory. "Israel," admitted a senior Israeli official "would never want to repeat the mistake of south Lebanon."
Shortly afterward, when Israel assassinated two top Hamas leaders -- Abdel Aziz Rantissi and Sheik Ahmad Yassin -- there was speculation this was being done so as not to leave Hamas feeling elated when then Gaza evacuation started.
If all goes well with the withdrawal -- and the Gaza pullout is "Gaza First, not Gaza Last," it could reignite the stalled peace talks. "If the pull out is successful, and people see it's quieter, it could embolden moderates on both sides," said Makovsky.
On the other hand, if the Israelis decide to stop after Gaza, then that could be the end of the "road map," and the beginning of trouble.
"I think they (the Palestinians) will be cautious. If Israel says no further steps, then there could be more violence," said Walker.
As Dennis Ross, a former U.S. Middle East negotiator noted in the San Jose Mercury News: "If they (the Palestinians) can show the world and the Israeli public that they can govern Gaza effectively and fulfill their security obligations, they will be in a strong position to argue that the Gaza model should also be applied to the West Bank.
"If they cannot, if Gaza devolves into chaos and violence, who is going to argue for Israel's turning over more territory for an eventual Palestinian state?"
For the moment the onus is entirely on the Palestinians.
(Comments may be sent to Claude@upi.com.)
Copyright 2005 by United Press International.
All rights reserved.
While most of the world -- and the media in particular -- is concentrating on the issue of the 8,000 Israeli settlers being forced out of 21 Gaza settlements and the humanitarian aspect of families forced to give up land, homes and communities, no doubt a tragedy in its own right, a more pertinent question should be, how will the Palestinians react to the evacuation. Will they see it as an opportunity to encourage Israel to follow up with more withdrawals from West Bank settlements, allowing them to build a viable state? Or instead, will they hinder the withdrawal with Qassam rockets and suicide bombings?
"The real story is how the Palestinians will handle this," Edward Walker Jr. president of the Middle East Institute, a former U.S. ambassador who served in Israel and Egypt, and a former deputy assistant secretary of state for Near Eastern Affairs, told United Press International.
What Walker means is if the Palestinians will try to show themselves and the world that they are able to adequately manage territory handed back to them, and in what manner will they govern those areas. Will the transition be smooth, or will the extremists get away with fomenting trouble and inciting violence?
"Thus far Abu Mazen (Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas) has done a fabulous job getting the (Palestinian) security forces into consultations with the Israelis. So far he has been able to meet the test," said Walker.
But tests in the Middle East have a habit of being tricky at the best of times.
Following Israel's decision to evacuate south Lebanon in May 2000 after 22 years of occupation, Hezbollah, the Lebanese Shiite paramilitary organization, claimed it was its unrelenting harassment of Israeli troops that finally forced out Israel. Hezbollah claimed it was the first real military victory by Arab forces over Israel.
While Israel's evacuation of south Lebanon may not have been a true defeat for Israel in any real military terms, Hezbollah, and particularly the Palestinian Islamist organizations such as the Islamic Resistance Movement, better known as Hamas, saw this as a great Arab victory.
Now Israel fears the same could happen with the Gaza pullout.
"I think that Hamas are smart and have smart people who will try to paint it (the withdrawal) as a victory. Just because you get rid of settlers does not mean you get rid of the occupation. The Israelis have the capacity to run back in," said Walker.
"There is no doubt Hamas will not view the withdrawal as a victory," David Makovsky, director of the Project on the Middle East Peace at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy told UPI.
And that worries Israel. Sometime last year when Israel first toyed with the idea of leaving Gaza, regardless of whether an agreement with the Palestinians was reached or not, an Israeli official who, at the time spoke on condition of anonymity, told UPI that "Israel would never again permit another South Lebanon."
He was of course referring to the evacuation of South Lebanon that gave Hezbollah its "victory" and hope to Hamas.
Hezbollah perceived Israel's sudden abandonment of southern Lebanon as a clear military victory. With the peace process all but dead -- Israel remains cognizant that it cannot afford a repetition of the Lebanon fiasco.
The Israeli official told UPI that under no circumstances would Hamas be allowed to look at Israel's Gaza pullout as a victory. "Israel," admitted a senior Israeli official "would never want to repeat the mistake of south Lebanon."
Shortly afterward, when Israel assassinated two top Hamas leaders -- Abdel Aziz Rantissi and Sheik Ahmad Yassin -- there was speculation this was being done so as not to leave Hamas feeling elated when then Gaza evacuation started.
If all goes well with the withdrawal -- and the Gaza pullout is "Gaza First, not Gaza Last," it could reignite the stalled peace talks. "If the pull out is successful, and people see it's quieter, it could embolden moderates on both sides," said Makovsky.
On the other hand, if the Israelis decide to stop after Gaza, then that could be the end of the "road map," and the beginning of trouble.
"I think they (the Palestinians) will be cautious. If Israel says no further steps, then there could be more violence," said Walker.
As Dennis Ross, a former U.S. Middle East negotiator noted in the San Jose Mercury News: "If they (the Palestinians) can show the world and the Israeli public that they can govern Gaza effectively and fulfill their security obligations, they will be in a strong position to argue that the Gaza model should also be applied to the West Bank.
"If they cannot, if Gaza devolves into chaos and violence, who is going to argue for Israel's turning over more territory for an eventual Palestinian state?"
For the moment the onus is entirely on the Palestinians.
(Comments may be sent to Claude@upi.com.)
Copyright 2005 by United Press International.
All rights reserved.
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