What next after the Mindanao Coal Fired Power Plant?
Mike Banos
January 06, 2007
While we take off our hats to them for finishing this critically needed power infrastructure in record time, we’re not so sure about sharing their exuberance at the project’s impact on the Mindanao power situation.
Although the grid is being weaned away from its traditional dependence on hydroelectric power plants, the bulk of generated power in the island is still being sourced from the Agus Hydroelectric Power Plants in Iligan City and Lanao del Sur and the Pulangi V Hydro-electric Power Plant in Maramag, Bukidnon.
The Regional Development Council in Region 10 (RDC-10) earlier sounded the alarm over the deteriorating power situation in Mindanao when Arsenio L. Sebastian III, RDC-10 vice-chairman and Dr. Modesto Babaylan, RDC 10 infrastructure committee co-chairman, disclosed that Pulangi is producing only 100-120MW of its 255MW rated capacity due to accumulated siltation in the Pulangi River feeding its catchment basin.
According to NPC, system gross reserve in Mindanao starting latter part of 2005 up to end 2006 would no longer be sufficient to meet the 11.9-percent load following/frequency reserve and spinning reserve requirements.
Given this, NPC president Cyril C. del Callar warns that “recurring power shortages are expected especially during peak periods, when generators and or associated transmission lines are on forced outage.”
The Mindanao coal-fired facility is seen easing the situation but energy officials say this would not be enough to make Mindanao immune from power outages. Del Callar said that from 2007 to 2008, power supply is stable as the system gross reserve is sufficient to meet the LFFR and spinning reserve with the entry of the 210 MW coal plant but additional new capacity of about 57 MW will again be needed by 2009 and thereafter, an average of 116 MW annually.
Environment watch dog Task Force Macajalar (TFM) claims there is no need for NPC to resort to other power sources because existing hydro power plants are enough to support Mindanao's power needs.
TFM spokesman BenCyrus Ellorin disclosed the Department of Energy (DoE) and NPC earlier said Mindanao's hydro power sources, if developed to full capacity, can produce 12,000 MW of power.
According to latest NPC estimates, the Mindanao power grid’s existing capacity only ranges from 982 MW to 1,500 MW. Independent power producers (IPPs) on the other hand are producing 543 MW.
It said Mindanao cannot depend on their traditional hydroelectric sources as they are “highly dependent on the availability of water supply, and watershed supply is dependent on (the state of) our watersheds.”
According to the NPC study, the island-region will increase power needs by 2,830 MW in 2011 with a projected growth rate of 11.8 percent from 2005 to 2010. NPC said it is only through the operation of the $305 million Mindanao coal-fired power plant that the demand in 2005 will be addressed.
But Ellorin said there is no need for a new power source when “we can reforest and protect our watersheds and rehabilitate the (existing) power plants.”
There is also a second option to tap the Luzon and Visayas grid, which now has an excess power supply of 5,000 MW which can possibly be tapped for Mindanao.
According to the Energy Department, the country will need an additional 5,450 megawatts (MW) for the period 2005-2014. For 2005, the country's total power demand is pegged at 9,603 MW while the existing dependable power capacity is at 13,959 MW. This affords the country a reserve margin of almost 30%.
It may seem that the country will not have a problem in meeting its power requirements given this reserve. But this figure hides the real situation in the various grids comprising the whole archipelago. Obviously, the country's power requirements should be analyzed on a grid basis to allow for the real impact of the projected power scenario up to 2014.
In Mindanao, the peak demand for power supply is projected to exceed existing power capacity by 2009. But it is expected that Mindanao will already start to experience shortfalls in power supply as early as 2005 because the of the low reserve margin for the island. A failure in one of Mindanao's power plants will spell trouble for the entire area. The average power supply reserve margin in the Mindanao grid from 2005 to 2008 is 7.26% which is expected to slip further to 3.93% in 2008.
The Mindanao grid has three sub-grids - North Mindanao, West Mindanao, and South Mindanao. Of the three sub-grids, only North Mindanao enjoys surplus capacity. Both West and South Mindanao grids have to “wheel in” additional power from the North Mindanao to address the peak power demand in their respective areas.
The PDP for 2005 to 2014 stresses the importance of putting up more power generating plants in order to avert a power shortfall in the major islands of the country, most especially in Mindanao with the reactivation of moth-balled heavy industries like the Global Steelworks International Inc. (formerly National Power Corp.) and the ferro-silicon plants in Phividec and Manticao, Misamis Oriental.
The average duration to construct power plants are six (6) years for coal, five (5) for hydro and geothermal, four (4) for high-capacity diesel, gas turbine, wind and low capacity diesel, and eight months (8) for power barge.
So there should be reason enough for today’s celebration that Steag managed to put the coal-fired power plant on-grid in record time, or half the usual duration. Mindanao owes the valiant executives, engineers and technicians from Germany and Japan for saving the island from possible recession. Our hats off too for the Filipinos who worked with them for making this dream come true.
But let’s get this party over quick and get back to the drawing board. As of the moment, no major basel load plant is coming online until the year 2010 and even if planned projects such as the Bulanog-Batang hydro-electric of the electric cooperatives, expansion of the Mt. Apo geothermal, or distributed generation projects of major utilities like Cepalco and Davao Light started construction today, not one of them would be finished in the next three years. Based on available information, not even one of them is close to financial closure.
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