Is Iran the Progenitor of the New Cold War?

As we say in South Georgia, it´s fixin to get ugly! The world has just learned that Iranian and Russian nuclear experts made final preparations to start up Iran's first reactor after years of delays. The operation surely marks a milestone in what Tehran considers its right to produce nuclear energy at their Bushehr fuel loading facility in southern Iran.

Obviously, this is serious news for Israel and the free-world. Main stream media is a buzz with expert opinion and commentary…more cannon fodder for sure. The reality is, no one knows what to expect from Iran. It reminds me of the days immediately following the heinous and unprovoked attacks on American citizens, the western media scrambled for so-called experts in terrorism, middle-eastern studies, and Islam. Many of us were glued to our televisions, mesmerized by the continuous re-play of horrible scenes of 11 September 2001 – scenes that to this day cultivate a sense of hatred and misunderstanding of the middle-eastern culture.

Furthermore, 9/11 invoked a renewed since of urgency with regard to Iran and their often radicalized Muslim views. In Iran: Progenitor of the New Cold War, Dr. Michael Schnorr details a remarkably insightful study focused on the Iranian threat not merely with regard to Israel, but to Western society at large. My friend Dr. Schnorr authored this work in 2005 while I was one of the military analysts on the tube spouting the theory that Iran would have nukes within 2-3 years. As history tells us, I was wrong, yet Dr. Schnorr´s work was spot on.

If one studies the history of this unpredictable region, it is transparent to those well-informed that world opinion impacts our global inter-play, politics, and diplomacy – this is ever so true with regard to Iran.

During a visit to Israel, I had a lengthy dinner discussion with Dr. Martin Kramer, a Washington Institute Ira Weiner Fellow, regarding Iran´s nuclear weapons proliferation and the growing threat to Israel. Dr. Kramer, a former Professor of Middle Eastern Studies at Tel Aviv University, left an indelible mark on my view of Islam and the greater Muslim community as a whole. Scholars and diplomats the world over have written volumes on the threat to world order that Iran represents.

As Dr. Schnorr outlines in his seminal work, the threat is REAL! The case of Iran is much more dangerous and deleterious than Iraq ever was. With the benefit of hind-site, there is little doubt that Iraq´s intentions in invading Kuwait in 1990 were mainly economic and political. Iraq had been until April 2003, a dictatorial regime with secular orientation and aims. Conversely, Iran is a fundamentalist Muslim state with outspoken hostile intentions towards the West. Perhaps more unsettling, Iran is a known supporter of international terrorism.

Iran has long been considered the pioneer of the Islamic fundamentalism phenomenon in the 20th century. Shortly after 9/11, a time when our attention was rightly diverted, intelligence reports and satellite pictures appeared in the Islamic newspaper, Yediot Aharonot (September, 2001). Multiple intelligence sources had confirmed a marked increase in Iranian efforts to develop a nuclear plant for military purposes. As events unfolded and weeks turned into months, months into years, we suspected Iran was encroaching on the ability to develop nuclear technologies. Their success largely depended on support from sympathetic neighboring nation-states (thanks Russia!), corrupt oil-rich companies, foreign aid and scientific expertise.

We now know that Iran maintained contacts and friendly clandestine relationships with Russia. So, it´s not inconsequential that Russia has agreed to "monitor" the site. For years Iran also sought critical information from various European countries and the Chinese government before the United States applied overwhelming diplomatic pressures forcing the Iranian´s to cease and desist. So we thought. In reality, Iran wasn´t about to merely acquiesce and quickly turned their attention toward Russia and their experienced nuclear scientist pool. Again, thanks Russia!

Since 2004, when I began to closely study Iran, most intelligence reports placed Iran´s nuclear warhead completion at 2-3 years. The prevailing wisdom predicted this timeline potentially might be shortened if Iran was successful in obtaining atomic components, equipment, and production protocols from myriad black markets and rogue scientists. Many analysts also suggested that Iran is developing surface-to-surface missiles capable of carrying nuclear, biological, and chemical warheads which easily range much of Europe and the Middle East. In 2010, it appears our intelligence was less than accurate.

As I listened to Dr. Kramer´s poignant analysis, attempting to digest his theories, I was perplexed as to why the free-world chooses to exercise naivety regarding the true Iranian threat to world-order. In light of the terror attack on the pentagon and twin towers, western countries would be wise to treat any Muslim fundamentalist country as a direct threat to its national security. When nation´s act to protect their citizens from nuclear threats many are quick to condemn the action as illegal or immoral. As was the case when Israel attacked and destroyed a nuclear weapons plant in Iraq, many voices, American and Western European, openly condemned Israel for conducting the attack. Had Israel failed to act, the United States´ led coalition in the first Gulf War may have experienced a completely different military and diplomatic scenario in August 1990, the month that Saddam Hussein´s forces invaded their neighbor Kuwait.

Although our intelligence over the past few years may have been overly stated in some instances, unquestionably, Iran is a member of the web of terror and their insistence on building a nuclear weapon is alarming. The moment President Jimmy Carter allowed the overthrow of the Shah of Iran, radicalism spawned by Ayatollah Khomeini flourished. Iran was no longer considered an ally of America. The 1978-1979 Iranian revolution set in motion the creation of the first Islamic fundamentalist state. More than 3o years later, we still struggle with developing the best course of action for containing Iran. While our diplomats weigh options and our military strategists develop operation plans, Iran is anything but quiescent. Led by those who toppled the Shah, Iran has become a leading exporter of radical Islam and a leading supporter of Islamist terrorism.

Hopefully the news of Iran achieving this Bushehr fuel reactor milestone will serve as an awakening of our collective conscience. Iran has led us down a shadowy path of deception, terrorism, and proliferation that shows they continue to spawn a crafty web of ill-intentions toward the West. Defeating this increasingly dangerous threat may mean overthrowing the regime. The modern free-world must act quickly to denounce Iran´s weapons of mass destruction production and not allow this Bushehr plant to be used for enriching uranium. In addition, even if Iran officially ends its nuclear weapons development program, it is unlikely that the mullahs will cease fitting, training, and funding terror groups around the world.

Change we know is fundamentally never easy. It may require cultivating the growing support of domestic resistance to the mullahs and increased diplomatic pressures. We may awake very soon and find that Israel has little patience for such solutions. The Israeli´s know better than anyone that a nuclear armed Iran is unacceptable. Again, thanks Russia! Address all thank you cards to President Dmitry Medvedev, President of Russia, 23 Ilyinka Street, Moscow, 103132, Russia.