Economic impact of the pending Somalia civil war
Gemeda Humnasa
December 06, 2006
The result of the looming Somali civil war; also accompanied by its various proxy wars, has vast significance on the development of Ethiopia and Somalia. Initially, the current near 10% economic growth of Ethiopia’s GDP will be damaged. But in the long run, if Ethiopia, T.F.G. and Puntland find victory against U.I.C. & Eritrea, it would set a great foundation for economic development in the Horn of Africa.
As many Somali-Ethiopians said this week, it is a mistake to even assume that the Union of Islamic Courts will ever bring stability in Somalia or the horn of Africa. But some people still praise the U.I.C. There were two “improvements” or rather changes which the U.I.C. made in Mogadishu. The first was bringing “law and order.” And the second was banning the narcotic Khat. But clearly, knowing thousands of Somalis are fleeing from Kismayo and other areas because of the extremism of U.I.C. doesn’t sound like freedom or security. Somalia does not need one clan or one “clan family” that can think and decide for the other thousands. It hasn’t worked so far and it will never work. And it certainly does not need imported jihadists and their politicized Islam. It does not need one clan to enforce its culture on others. Ethiopian Emperors tried that on our southerner & Oromo people for many years since 1890’s and it never worked; it only created numerous Liberation fronts like TPLF, OLF and EPLF. And the result of that is clear, for even after having a voluntarily united & multi-cultural government in Ethiopia, Oromo people are finding it hard to break the vanity of OLF and sway its leadership to leave its old mentality and bitterness. So U.I.C. is a project not worth the money and blood of Somalis. As the information Minister of Puntland Abdurahman Mohammed Bankah said, Somalia does not want extremists who “flog the vulnerable.” This extremism and uncompromising attitude will never bring positive results in Somalia. The Somali Transitional Federalist Government (T.F.G.) asked simple requirements for peace but still, U.I.C. and its jihadist leadership couldn’t compromise. Instead they sent suicide bombers and tried to assassinate the government leaders. The fact that most of these suicide bombers were imported jihadists showed even more that indeed the U.I.C. native Somali base did not even share the same extremist culture of the jihadists.
Secondly, banning drugs like Khat is something that Ethiopia wants to do too. But a nation can’t ban the income of millions of its citizens without having a great replacement for it. And to even think about having a replacement and applying it, a nation would at least need a flourishing economy which both Ethiopia and Somlia lack. The jihadists controlling U.I.C know neither economics nor common sense. However they have one goal in mind and that is to bring radical and politicized Islam to sub-Sahara Africa. The jihadists are not there because they love and care for East Africans. As many people have already said, the Sudan case with the Darfar genocide is the only result of this “fake Arab” that will be imposed on Somalis and later, on Ethiopians and Kenyans.
Most importantly, we can’t have roommates that are enemies at the same time. That is why the Prime Minister of Somali Transitional Federalist Government having good relations with Kenya and Ethiopia was important for East Africa. Also a country’s economy will not grow while its sovereignty is still in question. That’s also why the Meles Zenawi administration is doing the dirty work for future Ethiopian governments. Ethiopian opposition parties like CUD, UEDP and UEDF are even more passionate about the Ogaden region than EPRDF. So it was great to see opposition parties like UEDP and SPDP supporting EPRDF. Looking at how much difficult it has been for the ethnic Somali-Ethiopians to do development projects is a good example of why ONLF and its supporters in Mogadishu have to be stopped. Generally, America would not have been as economically successful if its enemy Iran was its neighbor. Even having the moderate Mexican governments claiming New Mexico State of America would have been a roadblock for US. Fortunately America doesn’t have such concerns.
Animosity between neighboring nations will never bring stability, especially with the large amount of Christians in Ethiopia as well as the more than 65% Christian population of Kenya. The moderate religions, both Islam and Christian, in Ethiopia are and should be an example for others to follow. Not many other nations around the world, with a near 50/50 Christian & Muslim population, enjoy such high level of religious tolerance. Certainly both politically and religiously, Somalia and Ethiopia would not last long if U.I.C. takes over Somalia. It would be a disaster. That is why the EPRDF-led government has been occupied more with security issues than development issues in Ogaden. Somali-Ethiopians supporting the T.F.G. and Ethiopia was not a fluke. They know what is right and wrong for they have experienced it all.
Ethiopia and Somalia does not have to make a great coalition like the Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania’s East African Community (EAC.) But at least having peace and stability is important and the only way forward for both nations. U.I.C. making an alliance with the dying regime of Eritrea was a strategic mistake. The Eritrean government never cared much about its people and its economy. Also it never kept its promise for Ethiopia to use Assab and other ports, but instead it launched the Ethio-Eritrean war by bombing a school in Ethiopia. With its small population, Eritrea could have become stable enough to have a fast economic growth. But now, hundreds of Eritreans are going back to Ethiopia as refugees and persecuted protestant Christians are sheltering in northern Ethiopia. The Eritrea government’s job has been sponsoring rebel groups in East Sudan (Hamesh), eastern Somalia, and southern Somalia. While Isaias Afewerki’s Tigrean friend, from their jungle days, improved himself, educated himself and brought a foundation for democracy & development; Isaias’s government still doesn’t have a single private media and it has never held a multi-party election. The only “achievement” the Eritrean government has made in more than a decade is freezing the East Sudan rebels which it originally created itself. Otherwise, Isaias is still occupied in backward politics more than economics while labeling western nations as “imperialists,” “colonialists” and “invaders.” East Africa doesn’t need such leaders; even the much better Meles Zenawi government is too corrupt to stay in power four more years. What we need is smart leaders that are more serious & informed about democracy and economic development. The T.F.G. and Puntland should remove U.I.C. and use this opportunity to move forward economically. When we look back to this year after 50 years; the T.F.G. and EPRDF should be portrayed as the two governments that set a decent foundation for future authentic, smart and better governments that are focused on development. They should be seen as the governments that made peace between the brotherly nations. If this doesn’t happen, we will be seeing many more wars in East Africa and many more American T.V. “save the children” commercials showing Ethiopians and Somalis suffering under violence & famine.
At this time, U.I.C. is the hero of only two groups of Somalis. The first are few Diaspora Somalis that are living comfortably and care more about politics than the economic situation on the ground of the poor Somalis in Somalia and Kenyan refugees. And the second group is the few Somalis in Mogadishu that have already given up on life and are pessimistic & shortsighted enough to be allied with jihadists and the dying Eritrean regime. The hopeful, optimistic and educated Somalis, even in Mogadishu, know the importance and long-term benefit of having brotherly states at peace
As many Somali-Ethiopians said this week, it is a mistake to even assume that the Union of Islamic Courts will ever bring stability in Somalia or the horn of Africa. But some people still praise the U.I.C. There were two “improvements” or rather changes which the U.I.C. made in Mogadishu. The first was bringing “law and order.” And the second was banning the narcotic Khat. But clearly, knowing thousands of Somalis are fleeing from Kismayo and other areas because of the extremism of U.I.C. doesn’t sound like freedom or security. Somalia does not need one clan or one “clan family” that can think and decide for the other thousands. It hasn’t worked so far and it will never work. And it certainly does not need imported jihadists and their politicized Islam. It does not need one clan to enforce its culture on others. Ethiopian Emperors tried that on our southerner & Oromo people for many years since 1890’s and it never worked; it only created numerous Liberation fronts like TPLF, OLF and EPLF. And the result of that is clear, for even after having a voluntarily united & multi-cultural government in Ethiopia, Oromo people are finding it hard to break the vanity of OLF and sway its leadership to leave its old mentality and bitterness. So U.I.C. is a project not worth the money and blood of Somalis. As the information Minister of Puntland Abdurahman Mohammed Bankah said, Somalia does not want extremists who “flog the vulnerable.” This extremism and uncompromising attitude will never bring positive results in Somalia. The Somali Transitional Federalist Government (T.F.G.) asked simple requirements for peace but still, U.I.C. and its jihadist leadership couldn’t compromise. Instead they sent suicide bombers and tried to assassinate the government leaders. The fact that most of these suicide bombers were imported jihadists showed even more that indeed the U.I.C. native Somali base did not even share the same extremist culture of the jihadists.
Secondly, banning drugs like Khat is something that Ethiopia wants to do too. But a nation can’t ban the income of millions of its citizens without having a great replacement for it. And to even think about having a replacement and applying it, a nation would at least need a flourishing economy which both Ethiopia and Somlia lack. The jihadists controlling U.I.C know neither economics nor common sense. However they have one goal in mind and that is to bring radical and politicized Islam to sub-Sahara Africa. The jihadists are not there because they love and care for East Africans. As many people have already said, the Sudan case with the Darfar genocide is the only result of this “fake Arab” that will be imposed on Somalis and later, on Ethiopians and Kenyans.
Most importantly, we can’t have roommates that are enemies at the same time. That is why the Prime Minister of Somali Transitional Federalist Government having good relations with Kenya and Ethiopia was important for East Africa. Also a country’s economy will not grow while its sovereignty is still in question. That’s also why the Meles Zenawi administration is doing the dirty work for future Ethiopian governments. Ethiopian opposition parties like CUD, UEDP and UEDF are even more passionate about the Ogaden region than EPRDF. So it was great to see opposition parties like UEDP and SPDP supporting EPRDF. Looking at how much difficult it has been for the ethnic Somali-Ethiopians to do development projects is a good example of why ONLF and its supporters in Mogadishu have to be stopped. Generally, America would not have been as economically successful if its enemy Iran was its neighbor. Even having the moderate Mexican governments claiming New Mexico State of America would have been a roadblock for US. Fortunately America doesn’t have such concerns.
Animosity between neighboring nations will never bring stability, especially with the large amount of Christians in Ethiopia as well as the more than 65% Christian population of Kenya. The moderate religions, both Islam and Christian, in Ethiopia are and should be an example for others to follow. Not many other nations around the world, with a near 50/50 Christian & Muslim population, enjoy such high level of religious tolerance. Certainly both politically and religiously, Somalia and Ethiopia would not last long if U.I.C. takes over Somalia. It would be a disaster. That is why the EPRDF-led government has been occupied more with security issues than development issues in Ogaden. Somali-Ethiopians supporting the T.F.G. and Ethiopia was not a fluke. They know what is right and wrong for they have experienced it all.
Ethiopia and Somalia does not have to make a great coalition like the Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania’s East African Community (EAC.) But at least having peace and stability is important and the only way forward for both nations. U.I.C. making an alliance with the dying regime of Eritrea was a strategic mistake. The Eritrean government never cared much about its people and its economy. Also it never kept its promise for Ethiopia to use Assab and other ports, but instead it launched the Ethio-Eritrean war by bombing a school in Ethiopia. With its small population, Eritrea could have become stable enough to have a fast economic growth. But now, hundreds of Eritreans are going back to Ethiopia as refugees and persecuted protestant Christians are sheltering in northern Ethiopia. The Eritrea government’s job has been sponsoring rebel groups in East Sudan (Hamesh), eastern Somalia, and southern Somalia. While Isaias Afewerki’s Tigrean friend, from their jungle days, improved himself, educated himself and brought a foundation for democracy & development; Isaias’s government still doesn’t have a single private media and it has never held a multi-party election. The only “achievement” the Eritrean government has made in more than a decade is freezing the East Sudan rebels which it originally created itself. Otherwise, Isaias is still occupied in backward politics more than economics while labeling western nations as “imperialists,” “colonialists” and “invaders.” East Africa doesn’t need such leaders; even the much better Meles Zenawi government is too corrupt to stay in power four more years. What we need is smart leaders that are more serious & informed about democracy and economic development. The T.F.G. and Puntland should remove U.I.C. and use this opportunity to move forward economically. When we look back to this year after 50 years; the T.F.G. and EPRDF should be portrayed as the two governments that set a decent foundation for future authentic, smart and better governments that are focused on development. They should be seen as the governments that made peace between the brotherly nations. If this doesn’t happen, we will be seeing many more wars in East Africa and many more American T.V. “save the children” commercials showing Ethiopians and Somalis suffering under violence & famine.
At this time, U.I.C. is the hero of only two groups of Somalis. The first are few Diaspora Somalis that are living comfortably and care more about politics than the economic situation on the ground of the poor Somalis in Somalia and Kenyan refugees. And the second group is the few Somalis in Mogadishu that have already given up on life and are pessimistic & shortsighted enough to be allied with jihadists and the dying Eritrean regime. The hopeful, optimistic and educated Somalis, even in Mogadishu, know the importance and long-term benefit of having brotherly states at peace
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