Iran's Hide and Seek Strategy
Ahmed Hany
July 27, 2010
Since the Shiite revolution in Iran and the term Shiite should be used because this revolution was at odds wit Sunni states and even the Iranian Sunni group, the main strategy of the regime is spreading influence in the Middle East and spreading the Shiite faith. In the 1980s Iran started to spread the Shiite faith in the Gulf States and started to spread it in African country.
The regime depended on its Republican Guard to control the country and to export the ideology of the revolution. After the Iraq-Iran war the regime decided not to go into uncalculated wars or confrontation using what could be called hide and seek strategy. This is done by changes of tactics or changes of programs.
Internally, when the regime felt pressure from the opposition and youth about openness it started recently to approach them in a different way rather than force. Iran hairdressers designed what the media called Islamic hair cut style for men and models presented them wearing ties. Few years ago the regime considered prohibited ties according to a religious edict as it is a sign of westernization. Now the regime considered it something disliked only.
When the Americans were preparing for the invading Iraq and they were talking about the presence of Mass Destructive Weapons the Iranian regime froze its nuclear project then after the Americans found that their adventure was a catastrophe the Iranian regime accelerated the nuclear program and it is likely that Iran will produce its first nuclear bomb before the Americans leave Iraq. The Russian president Dimitry Medvedev said that Iran will have the ability to produce a nuclear bomb after two years.
Always when the West shows serious signs to take actions against the Persian state the Iranian regime propose negotiating its regime and then aborts the negotiations. The Turkish-Brazilian-Iranian deal was not similar to the previous deal that Iran reached with group 5 + 1 as the first one asked Iran to send its one thousand and two hundreds kilograms low enriched uranium to Russia as lot then it receives gradual amounts of the twenty percent enriched uranium. The agreement that Iran had with Turkey and Brazil states that Iran sends the total amount gradually to Turkey. The trust between Russia and Iran is lost recently and the Medvedev described President Ahmadi Nejad as a demagogue after the Iranian president attacked Russia.
The sanctions that were imposed by the UN Security Council and other sanctions imposed by the US and the EU will affect the Iranian people but the regime will benefit from them. Mahdi Karobi the presidential nominee and now one of the opposition leaders said that the Republican Guard won millions of dollars due to these sanctions.
The ring of money laundry that was arrested in the Kuwait and Bahrain cleared that the Republican Guard finances some companies and high officials to do the job. All the accused were Shiite in the dormant cells that are controlled by the Republican Guard. However a Bahraini minister was one of them. Some of them were from different Nationalities and this sends a clear message to Arab states that the Republican Guard succeeded in having dormant cells ready for serving Iranian causes.
Iran invested in the Nile Basin countries to affect Egyptian vital strategic domain. At the same time the Hezbo-Allah and Houthis are examples of armed groups that are ready to fight by proxy.
It is clear that Iran uses Palestine and supports it verbally only. After Israel attacked the Turkish flotilla Iran declared that it would send a ship to Gaza. Then it accused Suez Canal authorities of not approving crossing the canal. When the Canal Authorities declared frankly that it will allow the ship to cross the canal Iran did not respond and declared that it canceled the ship trip. Hezbo-Allah made it clear from day one that it will not shared in the Lebanese ship that sailed towards Gaza not to give Israel a reason to attack its forces. Until now Hamas ruins any effort to have reconciliation with Fattah to keep this card for Iranian bargain with the US.
As it is clear that the sanctions affect the poor Iranians but empower the Republican Guard and when President Obama said that it is unlikely that Israel would attack Iran without telling the US then the US takes policies that keep Iran a paper tiger for the Gulf States and trouble maker for Egypt in Nile Basin with Israel to press on the sponsors of the Palestinian Authority before direct negotiations. Even if Iran could have a nuclear bomb this is unlikely to affect the Israeli security as both Iran and Israel have nothing common to fight each other about. But the Iranian nuclear bomb will drastically affect the Gulf States and will terrorize them to succumb to the American will to protect them.
Hamas leaders should be sincere in the reconciliation to give an opportunity for the efforts to go to the UN to declare the Palestinian State.
The regime depended on its Republican Guard to control the country and to export the ideology of the revolution. After the Iraq-Iran war the regime decided not to go into uncalculated wars or confrontation using what could be called hide and seek strategy. This is done by changes of tactics or changes of programs.
Internally, when the regime felt pressure from the opposition and youth about openness it started recently to approach them in a different way rather than force. Iran hairdressers designed what the media called Islamic hair cut style for men and models presented them wearing ties. Few years ago the regime considered prohibited ties according to a religious edict as it is a sign of westernization. Now the regime considered it something disliked only.
When the Americans were preparing for the invading Iraq and they were talking about the presence of Mass Destructive Weapons the Iranian regime froze its nuclear project then after the Americans found that their adventure was a catastrophe the Iranian regime accelerated the nuclear program and it is likely that Iran will produce its first nuclear bomb before the Americans leave Iraq. The Russian president Dimitry Medvedev said that Iran will have the ability to produce a nuclear bomb after two years.
Always when the West shows serious signs to take actions against the Persian state the Iranian regime propose negotiating its regime and then aborts the negotiations. The Turkish-Brazilian-Iranian deal was not similar to the previous deal that Iran reached with group 5 + 1 as the first one asked Iran to send its one thousand and two hundreds kilograms low enriched uranium to Russia as lot then it receives gradual amounts of the twenty percent enriched uranium. The agreement that Iran had with Turkey and Brazil states that Iran sends the total amount gradually to Turkey. The trust between Russia and Iran is lost recently and the Medvedev described President Ahmadi Nejad as a demagogue after the Iranian president attacked Russia.
The sanctions that were imposed by the UN Security Council and other sanctions imposed by the US and the EU will affect the Iranian people but the regime will benefit from them. Mahdi Karobi the presidential nominee and now one of the opposition leaders said that the Republican Guard won millions of dollars due to these sanctions.
The ring of money laundry that was arrested in the Kuwait and Bahrain cleared that the Republican Guard finances some companies and high officials to do the job. All the accused were Shiite in the dormant cells that are controlled by the Republican Guard. However a Bahraini minister was one of them. Some of them were from different Nationalities and this sends a clear message to Arab states that the Republican Guard succeeded in having dormant cells ready for serving Iranian causes.
Iran invested in the Nile Basin countries to affect Egyptian vital strategic domain. At the same time the Hezbo-Allah and Houthis are examples of armed groups that are ready to fight by proxy.
It is clear that Iran uses Palestine and supports it verbally only. After Israel attacked the Turkish flotilla Iran declared that it would send a ship to Gaza. Then it accused Suez Canal authorities of not approving crossing the canal. When the Canal Authorities declared frankly that it will allow the ship to cross the canal Iran did not respond and declared that it canceled the ship trip. Hezbo-Allah made it clear from day one that it will not shared in the Lebanese ship that sailed towards Gaza not to give Israel a reason to attack its forces. Until now Hamas ruins any effort to have reconciliation with Fattah to keep this card for Iranian bargain with the US.
As it is clear that the sanctions affect the poor Iranians but empower the Republican Guard and when President Obama said that it is unlikely that Israel would attack Iran without telling the US then the US takes policies that keep Iran a paper tiger for the Gulf States and trouble maker for Egypt in Nile Basin with Israel to press on the sponsors of the Palestinian Authority before direct negotiations. Even if Iran could have a nuclear bomb this is unlikely to affect the Israeli security as both Iran and Israel have nothing common to fight each other about. But the Iranian nuclear bomb will drastically affect the Gulf States and will terrorize them to succumb to the American will to protect them.
Hamas leaders should be sincere in the reconciliation to give an opportunity for the efforts to go to the UN to declare the Palestinian State.
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