Eclipse: Poised to Move Into Quiet Ubiquity?
Jens Eckels
November 20, 2006
On November 7th, various cities around the globe (including my hometown of Dallas, hosted by MyEclipse) threw birthday parties for the Eclipse platform, which celebrated the 5th anniversary since the code was made available by IBM.
On holidays, it tends to be tradition to do a little self examining; reflection upon the past and pondering of the future. Eclipse is no different, and while most of us know how far Eclipse has come, where is it going? What will the next five years hold? What will the 10th birthday of Eclipse look like?
With that in mind, let's explore what I feel are the highlights in the thus far successful life of Eclipse, and where Eclipse may be going:
Inception to 3 Years Old
As a new and innovative player, Eclipse must prove itself. Everyone wanted their tools to be free, but developed a need for support of those free tools. This spawned the early commercial offerings (including MyEclipse). It also promoted a lot of firefights between those who saw the potential of Eclipse ecosystem and the naysayers who said it wouldn't last and that Eclipse-based commercial offerings were doomed. The downside of free tools at mass adoption begins to rear its ugly head: consumers begin to resort to free, do-it-yourself strategies and end up spending time capital and hard cash to cobble together their own solutions. This fuels growth of low-cost, supported solutions. Eclipse experiences 300% growth.
Four Years Old
Eclipse has expanded to commoditize every JEE spec. With the advent of WebTools, many other IDEs throw in the towel and base themselves off of Eclipse (Microsoft, IntelliJ and Sun's NetBeans remain the only significant bastions). Enterprise adoption of Eclipse grows rapidly as Eclipse-based tooling becomes a standard, not an exception. The enterprise is now looking for a value-based proposition, not necessarily a free solution, though many continue to utilize the base Eclipse JDK. Eclipse as an RCP emerges, with projects beginning in multiple verticals. Eclipse experiences 100% growth.
5 Years Old (Present Day)
The advent of Callisto and Eclipse project release alignment begins to further commoditize the market, resulting in fewer full-featured IDE players in the market. Cross-platform functionality emerges, as Genuitec incorporates NetBeans features into the Eclipse environment. RCP emerges as the standard for rich development. Sun scales back Java developer tools and begins cannibalizing features into the NetBeans platform. Sun also begins to open source portions of Java. Eclipse experiences 100% growth.
Years 6-10 – Looking Ahead
Eclipse continues to grow at a phenomenal rate per year to the point of being a given in the tech sector rather than a newsworthy item. Blended solutions of open standards and commercial IP take hold and relegate the do-it-yourself enthusiasts to a hobbyist level. RCP has grown into a standard base for rich applications. By year 10, Eclipse has quietly plunged into ubiquity, with a saturated market share that dominates the tools market. Other IDEs become small but vocal niches.
So what will the 10th birthday of Eclipse look like? It depends... If growth continues at this rate, Eclipse could become a household name by year 10. The catchphrase (borrowed from our friends at Intel) “Eclipse Inside” may make Eclipse notorious in brand, but simultaneously unexciting due to broad adoption in multiple verticals. We'll have to see, but no matter the exact positioning, the growth will be exciting. Stay tuned...
On holidays, it tends to be tradition to do a little self examining; reflection upon the past and pondering of the future. Eclipse is no different, and while most of us know how far Eclipse has come, where is it going? What will the next five years hold? What will the 10th birthday of Eclipse look like?
With that in mind, let's explore what I feel are the highlights in the thus far successful life of Eclipse, and where Eclipse may be going:
Inception to 3 Years Old
As a new and innovative player, Eclipse must prove itself. Everyone wanted their tools to be free, but developed a need for support of those free tools. This spawned the early commercial offerings (including MyEclipse). It also promoted a lot of firefights between those who saw the potential of Eclipse ecosystem and the naysayers who said it wouldn't last and that Eclipse-based commercial offerings were doomed. The downside of free tools at mass adoption begins to rear its ugly head: consumers begin to resort to free, do-it-yourself strategies and end up spending time capital and hard cash to cobble together their own solutions. This fuels growth of low-cost, supported solutions. Eclipse experiences 300% growth.
Four Years Old
Eclipse has expanded to commoditize every JEE spec. With the advent of WebTools, many other IDEs throw in the towel and base themselves off of Eclipse (Microsoft, IntelliJ and Sun's NetBeans remain the only significant bastions). Enterprise adoption of Eclipse grows rapidly as Eclipse-based tooling becomes a standard, not an exception. The enterprise is now looking for a value-based proposition, not necessarily a free solution, though many continue to utilize the base Eclipse JDK. Eclipse as an RCP emerges, with projects beginning in multiple verticals. Eclipse experiences 100% growth.
5 Years Old (Present Day)
The advent of Callisto and Eclipse project release alignment begins to further commoditize the market, resulting in fewer full-featured IDE players in the market. Cross-platform functionality emerges, as Genuitec incorporates NetBeans features into the Eclipse environment. RCP emerges as the standard for rich development. Sun scales back Java developer tools and begins cannibalizing features into the NetBeans platform. Sun also begins to open source portions of Java. Eclipse experiences 100% growth.
Years 6-10 – Looking Ahead
Eclipse continues to grow at a phenomenal rate per year to the point of being a given in the tech sector rather than a newsworthy item. Blended solutions of open standards and commercial IP take hold and relegate the do-it-yourself enthusiasts to a hobbyist level. RCP has grown into a standard base for rich applications. By year 10, Eclipse has quietly plunged into ubiquity, with a saturated market share that dominates the tools market. Other IDEs become small but vocal niches.
So what will the 10th birthday of Eclipse look like? It depends... If growth continues at this rate, Eclipse could become a household name by year 10. The catchphrase (borrowed from our friends at Intel) “Eclipse Inside” may make Eclipse notorious in brand, but simultaneously unexciting due to broad adoption in multiple verticals. We'll have to see, but no matter the exact positioning, the growth will be exciting. Stay tuned...
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