NASCAR Notebook: Homestead
Barry F. Hess
November 17, 2006
The Heat is On in Miami
NASCAR and championship weekend has finally arrived down in Homestead Miami and the Chase for the Nextel Cup has never been closer!
With all eyes on Jimmie Johnson and the No. 48 Lowe’s Chevy team only time and 267 nail biting laps will tell if he can hold on to the point lead to win his first ever Nextel Cup Championship.
Another driver chomping at the bit to see the green flag fly this Sunday is Martin Truex Jr.
The driver of the No. 1Pro Bass Shop Chevy had, by far, the best car when the circuit tested in Homestead just a few short weeks ago and believes he can earn his first Nextel Cup win in the final race of what has been a mediocre season for the two-time defending Busch Series Champion.
Look for Truex, four top 10 finishes and 20th in points, to start near the front and with a little bit of luck, something he has not had very much of in his rookie season, to end there as well.
Truex’s car may have been the fastest in the test session but the car two-time Nextel Cup Champion, Tony Stewart, unloaded in Homestead is not just a proven winner but a proven dominator.
Look for Stewart to make a run at the pole award before he drives the same No. 20 Home Depot Chevy that earned him back-to-back wins at Atlanta and Texas, leading nearly 500 laps between the two.
With nothing to lose expect Stewart to get his money’s worth when the field takes the green flag for the last time until the Daytona 500 next season.
Kasey Kahne’s title chances went up in smoke not long after he and the rest of the No. 9 Dodge Dealers Dodge team qualified to participate in the 10-driver Chase.
But that has not stopped the young driver from enjoying every bit of what has become the best season of his green career.
With a league-high six wins to his credit this year look for Kahne to end 2006 with a bang.
Kahne, who finished 16th in this race one year ago and enters this year’s event ninth in points, will look to keep the momentum going as his team prepares for the Daytona 500 by making a run at both the pole as well as the checkered flag.
The driver Jimmie Johnson will be most concerned about, at least when the race starts, will be the man steering the no. 17 DeWalt Ford Fusion, former Nextel Cup Champion, Matt Kenseth.
Kenseth’s race cars have been notoriously poor over the last four to six races yet the calm veteran has managed to salvage decent finishes in most cases.
A decent finish Sunday, however, is likely to not get the job done if he wishes to end his day hoisting the Nextel Cup for the second time in his career.
Look for Robbie Reiser and the rest of the Roush armada to do everything in their power to give Kenseth the best possible car Sunday as he battles for his fifth win of the year but more importantly the Series title.
Prediction: There are two tracks on the schedule that make Greg Biffle more excited than a little kid on Christmas morning, Darlington and Homestead.
After making it three wins in a row in Darlington earlier this year Biffle will look to earn the three-peat Sunday at Homestead as well.
Look for last year’s runner up to the championship to qualify near the front before getting the No. 16 National Guard Ford Fusion in front of the rest of the field.
With his teammate Kenseth driving for the title look for Biffle to do all he can to help his long time friend get his second championship….that is until the last 25 laps of the race where he will be looking for his second checkered flag of his most disappointing 2006.
Championship Prediction
When Jimmie Johnson starts his engine Sunday and takes the track for the Ford 400 there will mathematically be four other drivers with a shot to surpass the two-time runner up and win the championship, none however, has as good a shot (at least statistically) than Matt Kenseth.
The “X” factor in all this however, remains the poor handling race cars Kenseth and crew have consistently brought to the track for the majority of the Chase for the Nextel Cup.
Though Kenseth has salvaged many races with top 15 finishes that will hardly be enough to get the job done Sunday evening and his team owner Jack Roush knows that.
Needing a finish of 12th or better to clinch the title look for Johnson to be conservative as you can be driving around an oval at nearly 200 miles per hour.
If Kenseth’s recent streak of bad performing cars keeps up Johnson realistically would need a finish of just 20th or better to hold off Denny Hamlin, Dale Earnhardt Jr. and Kevin Harvick.
Don’t be surprised to see one, or more, of the four competing drivers get involved in a wreck caused by driving their cars to hard as the race moves on and chances become far more diminished.
It’s been said before and I will say it again, the only person who can beat Jimmie Johnson, who fell as low as eighth in the Chase at one point, and steal the title from him is Johnson himself….though we need not forget the three straight weeks of mechanical failures Hendrick Motor Sports cars’ suffered earlier in the Chase!
His cars have performed far to well in recent weeks to allow Earnhardt Jr., the biggest threat in my humble opinion, to get within comfortable striking range.
Look for Johnson and the No. 48 team that started the year hoisting the Daytona 500 trophy to end it hoisting the Nextel Cup.
Expect Earnhardt Jr. and Kenseth to finish the point standings second and third respectively.
Random Thoughts
Next week will be the final edition of the NASCAR Notebook until the week of the Gatorade Duals kick off Speed Week in February next year…thanks to all the loyal fans that logged on every week and read the report. Hope to hear from you all again next year!
Kudos to Jeff Burton for turning his career around with a surprisingly good 2006, his win at Dover was without a doubt one of the best moments of the year. Hopefully he will keep it up next year and make another strong run at the Nextel Cup.
For those of you eager to see Juan Pablo Montoya’s debut in the Nextel Cup you’ll likely have to wait until next year to do so. Chip Ganassi has decided to let Montoya try and qualify for the race on time via the No. 30 Dodge rather than let him take the seat of the No. 42 he will drive next year claiming he will get more respect from the drivers if he earns his way into the race…sorry Chip, drivers earn respect by getting to Victory Lane something Montoya won’t have a shot at doing if he’s sitting on the pit stall next to you watching the race and not driving in it!
NASCAR and championship weekend has finally arrived down in Homestead Miami and the Chase for the Nextel Cup has never been closer!
With all eyes on Jimmie Johnson and the No. 48 Lowe’s Chevy team only time and 267 nail biting laps will tell if he can hold on to the point lead to win his first ever Nextel Cup Championship.
Another driver chomping at the bit to see the green flag fly this Sunday is Martin Truex Jr.
The driver of the No. 1Pro Bass Shop Chevy had, by far, the best car when the circuit tested in Homestead just a few short weeks ago and believes he can earn his first Nextel Cup win in the final race of what has been a mediocre season for the two-time defending Busch Series Champion.
Look for Truex, four top 10 finishes and 20th in points, to start near the front and with a little bit of luck, something he has not had very much of in his rookie season, to end there as well.
Truex’s car may have been the fastest in the test session but the car two-time Nextel Cup Champion, Tony Stewart, unloaded in Homestead is not just a proven winner but a proven dominator.
Look for Stewart to make a run at the pole award before he drives the same No. 20 Home Depot Chevy that earned him back-to-back wins at Atlanta and Texas, leading nearly 500 laps between the two.
With nothing to lose expect Stewart to get his money’s worth when the field takes the green flag for the last time until the Daytona 500 next season.
Kasey Kahne’s title chances went up in smoke not long after he and the rest of the No. 9 Dodge Dealers Dodge team qualified to participate in the 10-driver Chase.
But that has not stopped the young driver from enjoying every bit of what has become the best season of his green career.
With a league-high six wins to his credit this year look for Kahne to end 2006 with a bang.
Kahne, who finished 16th in this race one year ago and enters this year’s event ninth in points, will look to keep the momentum going as his team prepares for the Daytona 500 by making a run at both the pole as well as the checkered flag.
The driver Jimmie Johnson will be most concerned about, at least when the race starts, will be the man steering the no. 17 DeWalt Ford Fusion, former Nextel Cup Champion, Matt Kenseth.
Kenseth’s race cars have been notoriously poor over the last four to six races yet the calm veteran has managed to salvage decent finishes in most cases.
A decent finish Sunday, however, is likely to not get the job done if he wishes to end his day hoisting the Nextel Cup for the second time in his career.
Look for Robbie Reiser and the rest of the Roush armada to do everything in their power to give Kenseth the best possible car Sunday as he battles for his fifth win of the year but more importantly the Series title.
Prediction: There are two tracks on the schedule that make Greg Biffle more excited than a little kid on Christmas morning, Darlington and Homestead.
After making it three wins in a row in Darlington earlier this year Biffle will look to earn the three-peat Sunday at Homestead as well.
Look for last year’s runner up to the championship to qualify near the front before getting the No. 16 National Guard Ford Fusion in front of the rest of the field.
With his teammate Kenseth driving for the title look for Biffle to do all he can to help his long time friend get his second championship….that is until the last 25 laps of the race where he will be looking for his second checkered flag of his most disappointing 2006.
Championship Prediction
When Jimmie Johnson starts his engine Sunday and takes the track for the Ford 400 there will mathematically be four other drivers with a shot to surpass the two-time runner up and win the championship, none however, has as good a shot (at least statistically) than Matt Kenseth.
The “X” factor in all this however, remains the poor handling race cars Kenseth and crew have consistently brought to the track for the majority of the Chase for the Nextel Cup.
Though Kenseth has salvaged many races with top 15 finishes that will hardly be enough to get the job done Sunday evening and his team owner Jack Roush knows that.
Needing a finish of 12th or better to clinch the title look for Johnson to be conservative as you can be driving around an oval at nearly 200 miles per hour.
If Kenseth’s recent streak of bad performing cars keeps up Johnson realistically would need a finish of just 20th or better to hold off Denny Hamlin, Dale Earnhardt Jr. and Kevin Harvick.
Don’t be surprised to see one, or more, of the four competing drivers get involved in a wreck caused by driving their cars to hard as the race moves on and chances become far more diminished.
It’s been said before and I will say it again, the only person who can beat Jimmie Johnson, who fell as low as eighth in the Chase at one point, and steal the title from him is Johnson himself….though we need not forget the three straight weeks of mechanical failures Hendrick Motor Sports cars’ suffered earlier in the Chase!
His cars have performed far to well in recent weeks to allow Earnhardt Jr., the biggest threat in my humble opinion, to get within comfortable striking range.
Look for Johnson and the No. 48 team that started the year hoisting the Daytona 500 trophy to end it hoisting the Nextel Cup.
Expect Earnhardt Jr. and Kenseth to finish the point standings second and third respectively.
Random Thoughts
Next week will be the final edition of the NASCAR Notebook until the week of the Gatorade Duals kick off Speed Week in February next year…thanks to all the loyal fans that logged on every week and read the report. Hope to hear from you all again next year!
Kudos to Jeff Burton for turning his career around with a surprisingly good 2006, his win at Dover was without a doubt one of the best moments of the year. Hopefully he will keep it up next year and make another strong run at the Nextel Cup.
For those of you eager to see Juan Pablo Montoya’s debut in the Nextel Cup you’ll likely have to wait until next year to do so. Chip Ganassi has decided to let Montoya try and qualify for the race on time via the No. 30 Dodge rather than let him take the seat of the No. 42 he will drive next year claiming he will get more respect from the drivers if he earns his way into the race…sorry Chip, drivers earn respect by getting to Victory Lane something Montoya won’t have a shot at doing if he’s sitting on the pit stall next to you watching the race and not driving in it!
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