National Mood on Iraq Turns GOP into Sinking Ship

Republican Retrenchment Signals Panic Among GOP Incumbents.

As national polls and newspapers stories nationwide continue to reflect voters’ sour mood towards Congress and the war in Iraq, the Republican Party is retrenching its efforts and redeploying its assets in a defensive mode. The dispatch of President Bush to what should be safe House and Senate seats in Missouri and the South, and the fact that Dennis Hastert, Speaker of the House, is campaigning in his own district, rather than in the 30 House districts in which he was scheduled to campaign, is viewed by many experts as a sign of panic among the GOP leadership.

Some experts say that it is not just the polling data that is causing GOP candidates and advisors to focus on salvaging what few seriously contested seats they can, but also what candidates are hearing on the stump and the “buzz” of anti-war and anti-incumbent sentiment on the Internet.

Democrats are seizing the opportunity and trying to ensure that their candidates catch the wave of public sentiment by engaging in an aggressive “get out the vote” (GOTV) campaign. An example of this is California’s 11th Congressional District, which is currently held by Republican Richard Pombo, who Chairs the House Resources Committee and was considered to have a safe seat just a few months ago. Republicans’ only hope in this race, according to experts, is for a low turnout. Democrats from throughout California are pouring into the District to ensure that Democrats and Independent voters get to the polls because they know that if these voters cast their ballots, they will vote for challenger Jerry McNerney.

Senator Conrad Burns of Montana was also considered to be very safe just a few months ago because Montana is so overwhelmingly Republican. Now, with Burns behind in the polls, Bush has been dispatched to try to salvage Burns’ desperate campaign, although many Republicans fear that the public’s concern with the “directionless” Bush policy in Iraq, will make the President’s visit a liability, rather than an advantage for the beleaguered incumbent. A victory by moderate Democrat Jon Tester could be the sixth seat necessary to give the Democrats a majority in the U.S. Senate for the first time in a dozen years.

Experts disagree about the number of seats which will turn over to the Democrats, in part because it is hard to know what effect the recent scandals will have on GOP turnout. These scandals include the Jack Abramoff bribery scandal, the Mark Foley teenage sex scandal, the Randy “Duke” Cunningham bribery scandal, and “Scooter” Libby perjury/cover-up scandal. However, most experts are predicting a Democratic victory in the House of Representatives and a cliff-hanger in the U.S. Senate.