Changing Strategy: peace is never late
Dr. Tanvir Orakzai
October 31, 2006
There was some skepticism in the beginning about the FATA (NWFP) peace process, but things seem to be working. One major shift can be seen even in the President Bush rhetoric “change of tactics”; a strategy which has been initiated by NWFP Governor Orakzai earlier. An inherent mistake in US war of terror has been going after wrong targets. The militants plan is to gain popular support; which seems to work when thousands of innocent people are killed mistakenly. Such mistakes become tools of propaganda to the extremist’s cause. One recent incident took place in Bajur agency which resulted in killing 83 innocent students jeopardizing the peace process. Pakistan army has claimed the responsibility for the attack; but the wide spread belief among the tribal people is that US launched this attack. Ironically the peace deal was believed to be signed on Monday; which seems to be out of sight now. It took months to take tribal elders into confidence; this immense use of force is once again a reminder that US is not learning the lesson from Iraq. The situation in Pakistan and Afghan borders is still under control; however repeated killings can put NATO and US forces in deep trouble. It is crucial for US and its allies including Pakistan to stress more on dialogue and alienate the main militant leadership from popular support. The real issue would be to focus on few hardcore supporters who are bent on harming US and its allies rather than massive killing. However for long-term peace; a crucial step would be to understand the "root causes" of terrorism; a stance urged by President Musraff.
When President Bush started the campaign of war on terror, he had massive support for his cause at home. After three years on course, situation in Iraq has become worse; a fact acknowledged by Sen. Lindsey Graham that Iraq is on the “verge of chaos”. Finally President Bush under pressure from Democrats and Republican has decided to follow Pakistan’s strategy. One key development is the ongoing negotiation with Sunni insurgents to pave the way for peace and disarmament in Iraq. This current move is ample evidence for critics; who were blaming Pakistan for talking peace. This U-turn arrived at time when October proved to be the bloodiest month for US forces in Iraq. Amid the chaos, US voters are preparing for midterm election. Even though President Bush has been doing emergency talks with Generals to come up with a quick solution; analyst believe White House will face the music during the midterm election. Had dialogue been adopted earlier; the result could have been drastically different.
Wars can never be won by might or force alone. For any campaign to be successful, popular support is very crucial. During WWII, Germany conquered most of the Europe within three months; being occupiers, it was easy for Allied forces to root them out. Occupation is only about fighting and winning; creating fear in mob; a strategy far from rule of law and governance. The same thing is happening in Afghanistan and Iraq. US and NATO forces claimed to be liberators, but ended up as occupiers. Afghanistan needs rule of law and good governance which can only take place, if fighting stops and all ethnic groups are represented in the government. The NATO forces have shown flexibility and have recently entered a peace deal with the militants following the Pakistan’s strategy; however part of solution is including all the ethnic groups; with enough financial resources to provide economic progress for the region and its people.
The US administration needs to calculate; how much it has lost due to the miscalculated strategy. Analysts mention that un-flexible policy in War on Terror has alienated many of US allies. It has also thinned US forces; US can no longer afford to deploy its forces outside Iraq and Afghanistan; even if there are credible threats. The recent North Korea nuclear detonation is one classic example, which has happened due to too much focus on winning the invisible enemy. North Korea is well-known for taking risks; a nuclear bomb in North Korea hands is worse than Al-Qaeda.
The top commander of British Army has pointed out that presence of troops on foreign land is the main reasons to “exacerbate the security situation”. Such voices of discontent are present at the highest level in the British politics. Lord Guthrie felt frustrated about situation in Afghanistan “anyone who had read any history, anyone who knew the Afghans or had seen the terrain, anyone who had thought about the Taliban resurgence, anyone who understood what was going on across the border in Baluchistan and Waziristan (in Pakistan, to launch the British Army in with the numbers there are, while still going on in Iraq, is cuckoo.” The former head of the UN mission in Kabul also gave warning that NATO was “staring failure in the face” in Afghanistan. Mr Brahimi said that the international community had “made a lot of mistakes” in Afghanistan. Its time to make no further mistakes and accelerate the negotiation in Afghanistan and Pakistan, which will also provide an honorable exit to the US and NATO troops.
When President Bush started the campaign of war on terror, he had massive support for his cause at home. After three years on course, situation in Iraq has become worse; a fact acknowledged by Sen. Lindsey Graham that Iraq is on the “verge of chaos”. Finally President Bush under pressure from Democrats and Republican has decided to follow Pakistan’s strategy. One key development is the ongoing negotiation with Sunni insurgents to pave the way for peace and disarmament in Iraq. This current move is ample evidence for critics; who were blaming Pakistan for talking peace. This U-turn arrived at time when October proved to be the bloodiest month for US forces in Iraq. Amid the chaos, US voters are preparing for midterm election. Even though President Bush has been doing emergency talks with Generals to come up with a quick solution; analyst believe White House will face the music during the midterm election. Had dialogue been adopted earlier; the result could have been drastically different.
Wars can never be won by might or force alone. For any campaign to be successful, popular support is very crucial. During WWII, Germany conquered most of the Europe within three months; being occupiers, it was easy for Allied forces to root them out. Occupation is only about fighting and winning; creating fear in mob; a strategy far from rule of law and governance. The same thing is happening in Afghanistan and Iraq. US and NATO forces claimed to be liberators, but ended up as occupiers. Afghanistan needs rule of law and good governance which can only take place, if fighting stops and all ethnic groups are represented in the government. The NATO forces have shown flexibility and have recently entered a peace deal with the militants following the Pakistan’s strategy; however part of solution is including all the ethnic groups; with enough financial resources to provide economic progress for the region and its people.
The US administration needs to calculate; how much it has lost due to the miscalculated strategy. Analysts mention that un-flexible policy in War on Terror has alienated many of US allies. It has also thinned US forces; US can no longer afford to deploy its forces outside Iraq and Afghanistan; even if there are credible threats. The recent North Korea nuclear detonation is one classic example, which has happened due to too much focus on winning the invisible enemy. North Korea is well-known for taking risks; a nuclear bomb in North Korea hands is worse than Al-Qaeda.
The top commander of British Army has pointed out that presence of troops on foreign land is the main reasons to “exacerbate the security situation”. Such voices of discontent are present at the highest level in the British politics. Lord Guthrie felt frustrated about situation in Afghanistan “anyone who had read any history, anyone who knew the Afghans or had seen the terrain, anyone who had thought about the Taliban resurgence, anyone who understood what was going on across the border in Baluchistan and Waziristan (in Pakistan, to launch the British Army in with the numbers there are, while still going on in Iraq, is cuckoo.” The former head of the UN mission in Kabul also gave warning that NATO was “staring failure in the face” in Afghanistan. Mr Brahimi said that the international community had “made a lot of mistakes” in Afghanistan. Its time to make no further mistakes and accelerate the negotiation in Afghanistan and Pakistan, which will also provide an honorable exit to the US and NATO troops.
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