The Challenges Nepal Faces
Media Communications Center
October 23, 2006
by Vikram S. Basnyat
Taking into account what went in the past and the current environment politically, diplomatically and militarily, the Maoists strategy and the SPA's future course of action should be adopted systematically and in co-ordination with other instruments of power and the international community. The democratic political parties and the Nepalese Army (NA) must have the pivotal role to for see a democratic Nepal with Constitutional Monarchy. The focal point is the sovereignty, democracy and the peace loving people of the kingdom.
The Seven Party Alliance (SPA) is gradually waning in the Maoists communists ruse, but very surprisingly the other instruments of power and the international community especially China, UK and the Scandinavians has not appeared translucent to how to go about the Nepalese crisis especially in the query of arms. US have made it comprehensive that it is against the national policy of the United States to support a government that acquire a political party with weapons. They cannot see another Lebanon or Palestine. India seems to give the impression of concern but require enforcing their political and security national policy. Does India support or not support an arms group in the government? India the biggest democracy should insist that all the political parties especially Maoists to disarms and be a legitimate political party who deem in ballots not bullets. The disarming of the Maoists will not just help Nepal to obtain peace, development and democracy the people so desire and require but will help India, the regional power harvest support for the fight against terrorism in India as a contribution to the global fight against terrorism.
Maoists discuss of managing the crisis by Nepalese because of their confidence cause of the arms and fear installed in the population, geography and the lack of confidence in the 7 political parties. Besides Nepali Congress (NC), Nepali Congress Democratic (NCD) and Nepal Sadhavawana Party (NSP) (Ananda Devi) all the other parties representing SPA are communists. How much confidence does the people have on NC, NCD and NSP (Ananda Devi)? It can be rest assured that the people live in fear, lack confidence and existence of terror, extortion, kidnapping in some form or the other. The highways have the attendance of People Liberation Army of the Maoists (PLAM) extracting money from the people in the name of feeding the PLAM and the militias. Why can't the people feed the PLAM and the militias on their will if the Maoists are so confident and the cause they think is for the people of Nepal? The Maoists must conviction in people not arms nor the SPA.
There are republicans who encourage the Maoists as the only process to bring about political change, but do they realise that they are supporting communist arms insurrection and guns not ballot in this century. The republicans must bear in mind and take into account the geopolitical situation and the political and security commotion that may appear in the future.
The dilemma in our land is arms, weapons the PLAM and the militias hold, the PLAM and the militias that were around the Rt. Hon'ble PM's quarter at Baluwataar few days ago and the Maoists assertive leaders. Declaration of raising of arms struggle against a democratic government of Sher Bahadur Deuba and the legitimate representatives of the people is the cause to why the people are not achieving peace and democracy that is required and desired. The people must be free to use their individuals' rights.
Maoists Strategy
The end of the Maoists cease-fire is coming close in about 2 weeks. The Maoists standing on the republican stature before the Constituent Assembly (CA) and a CA for a new constitution issue without separating their weapons claiming for the welfare, celebration and demands put forth by the people, various groups including some of the political parties. These are all part of the strategy for the continuation of the so-called people's war. The concept is to change from decentralisation of operation to a centralisation system. It can be viewed that the ultimate objective is to establish a Communist People's Republic where as the call has been for a new model of democracy.
The Maoist's assumption of leaping forward after the resumption of hostility may be too ambitious to start with and declaration of a republic is another strategy to confuse the people and the security forces. This may be to create a playground for the political parties to resume their party interest and inter-party difference once again as well as to engage them or show how they can come to power by which they may be able to create a favourable environment for the cause of establishing a republic before CA. This is another attempt to expose the political parties of their inefficiencies that they have thrust amongst their followers and sympathisers. This is well played by the Maoists to drag and confuse for their benefit. The Maoists want an atmosphere where they may be able to infiltrate as many as possible in all sectors so that all may unite to act against Nepal Government (NG) and the Institution of Monarchy (IoM). IoM is the focal point for the Maoists. They stress and acknowledge that they are the alternative to IoM. The Maoists will try to create an atmosphere to come to power even if they may have to go to ballots by embracing the political parties challenging the IoM. It is believed that Maoists are 20000 strong and has extended to almost all the districts of the Kingdom. The strategy designed to strike terror and create fear among the general population appears to have been adopted and seems to be succeeding to a larger extent.
Politically IoM and militarily Nepalese Army (NA) is the centre of gravity for the Maoists. The Maoists will not come to a solution with peaceful measures. The Maoists will not be alienated as for the illegal benefits both the leaders and the cadres are receiving in this civilised world.
Nepal is not just the nation in South Asia experiencing acts of terror and destruction b y rebel groups, but India and many other nations have similar inconvenience. Nepal cannot and should not deal with the Maoists crisis on her own but require assistance, co-ordination and co-operation from the international community especially India which will have to face the blunt in the coming future from her terrorist organisations as well.
Can we really see the 25-point agreements being carried effectively by the Maoists?
Are we eager to see extortion, kidnapping, abductions, killings and PLAM's presence not just in highways but also at international borders?
Who is accountable for all the destruction and the deaths after the agreements?
Any agreements have very little meaning when there is no effective mechanism for monitoring and verification. Accountability is the key to such agreements. There needs to be both local and international monitoring system.
UN Involvement
UN cannot be denied as a body representing the international community that has not just assisted nations in distress but has in fact fought for humanity may it be in different forms. Nepal must be clear and specific after understanding the UN method of working and politics the role of the UN. Nepal must specify the role envisioned. The 5-point agreement between the NG and the Maoists serve the basis of UN involvement. The understanding has solicited to acquire civilian personnel to monitor the Code of Conduct and verify the confinement of the Maoists combatants to their relevant cantonment. The 5-point agreement, like the cease-fire agreement also presumes that monitoring of Maoists arms and ammunitions can only be completed when DDR process is instigates. Our land cannot be a site for opportunity, it should be converted to a land where human rights in all forms are respected, freedom is seen and democracy expanded.
Advantages
Bring all side into negotiating table.
Pledge the financial support from donors.
A legitimate organization, which enjoys global respect and recognition.
Will probably try to find a settlement in "all-inclusive basis".
Maoist could safe-land in the mainstream with the involvement of UN, provided their main demands are addressed.
Disadvantages
Not very successful in similar crisis in other parts of world.
Once involved, tries to stay for longer period and try to interfere in all areas of national affairs. National authorities will have to face tremendous pressure with the UN presence.
May prolong the crisis in order to make the case for its employees to find a secure job.
Try to address most of the demands made by rebels thereby limiting the sphere of influence and rights of government side including monarchy.
Will address the demand of constitutional assembly.
Once involved, then this problem will formally be internationalized and there will no point of return. Rebels may enjoy equal advantages as government.
UN may have a standard model or a model that the two opposing parties may come to agreement. The UN should have a model not to encourage the Maoists or any rebel group not just in Nepal but anywhere in the world and the use of arms against a legitimate democratic government for political change through arms insurrection. UN should have a mechanism to bring the guilty to Justice. UN cannot act on their own but require to understand the regional settings and the impact the envisaged model will affect on other nations and rebel groups. India as a regional power and a bordering nation must be taken into consultation before any mechanism is identified and finalised.
What are required are the regional powers to see the regional armed groups problem and its implication in the world. India must take a clear lead in this remark as the communists may shatter the political structure in the region.
Conclusion
The arms the Maoists hold either by the PLAM or the so called militia must be destroyed for political stability and people's security to opt for the better future of a democratic Nepal and South Asia may it be in favour of Maoists ideology or not.
The so called October revolution or a urban insurrection announced or planned by the Maoists need not be taken into priority immediately but may need attention for future courses of action. If the Maoists trust and believe on the people they must act as any other political party.
Prachanda and his allies should face trial or be pardoned. The people need to decide through referendum weather to pardon Maoists dogmatic leaders to participate in the democratic process or trial them for all the loss of property and lives that the Maoists initiated. This will not just give justice to the people but will warn the terrorists and the terror activities not just in Nepal but international.
Nepalese people given a choice to opt the same to the Maoists leaders as in Peru who raised arms against the democratically elected government or the legitimate representatives of the people, which the people may have forgotten. The problem in this nation to acquire peace and democracy the people so desire and require is the arms, militias and the leadership of the Maoists who opted for arms insurrection in this century. Imagine the inanity of the Maoists leaders of an arms insurrection for political change in this century.
IoM and the democratic political parties have to come to better understanding and attention. Nepal Police (NP) and Armed Police Force (APF) must be deployed all over the country to establish conductive and secure atmosphere. The role of the NA will be to assist the NP, APF and the Administration to create a peaceful environment. The democratic political parties must visit all the nook and corner of the country and explain to the people of no more fear and the ones that create fear will be brought to justice. Government machinery and political activities must roll as early as possible before the Maoists opt for more destruction.
China may see her interest being met by enhancing and expediting support to the Maoists.
NG has committed and is prepared to face any eventuality and is aware, capable and ready to protect the life and property of its citizens and defend the sovereignty of the country, freedom of the people, multiparty democracy and constitutional monarchy. The NG should establish time framed objectives so that all the instruments can act upon for the better of the Nepalese people. The attention to the people's cause of dissatisfaction and the root causes of the Maoists issue that has severely caused disorder needs immediate execution with credible options.
Maoists will be defeated for the attainment of their aim of a establishment of a Communist People's Republic if NG modernises the security forces, create a peaceful environment, applause the IoM and addresses the political, social and cultural differences through constitutional amendments.
Yes, from a short-term point of view, you're right. All the items you list below are challenges the state currently faces.
However, I would add that every item you list is an “effect” and not a “cause.” The primary cause in my humble opinion is the abject leadership that emanates from every nook and cranny in Nepal’s structural build. The mentality of “me” before “we” and “them” after “us” is disgusting. The leadership track record across the board is absolutely repulsive and the institutionalized corruption is shameful.
Every leader we’ve seen seems to have grand plans and pie in the sky predictions but has neither a thought-out plan of execution nor a concrete agenda that is remotely selfless. Words like “peace” and “democracy” are hollow if all one can do is utter them and at the same time, have absolutely no concept of how to achieve them.
To wonder why the Maoists (despite what they’ve done) have such a dedicated support base is redundant. It’s because people at the grass roots have seen no evidence of credible options – at least the Maoist dream (however unrealistic it may seem to us), feeds these people and keeps them clothed. Which government has done this in the past?
Yes, the leadership currently in command doesn’t have a glowing history. In fact, they are probably the most discredited of the lot because they screwed up even when opportunities were ripe. But what alternatives are on the plate for Nepalese to choose from?
The Maoist assault on the state will never be justified but neither will the injustices that were (and continue to be) inflicted on the population by a politically savvy elite.
I think the “stupidity” you outline at the conclusion of your message is better stated this way: “Imagine the stupidity of Nepali leaders, thinking that in this day and age, they could continue to promise people a utopian solution, no plan in mind and no delivery capacity in sight.” How's this for stupidity?
Just my two cents.........
The King of Jordan says "Democracy means different things to different nations"
Taking into account what went in the past and the current environment politically, diplomatically and militarily, the Maoists strategy and the SPA's future course of action should be adopted systematically and in co-ordination with other instruments of power and the international community. The democratic political parties and the Nepalese Army (NA) must have the pivotal role to for see a democratic Nepal with Constitutional Monarchy. The focal point is the sovereignty, democracy and the peace loving people of the kingdom.
The Seven Party Alliance (SPA) is gradually waning in the Maoists communists ruse, but very surprisingly the other instruments of power and the international community especially China, UK and the Scandinavians has not appeared translucent to how to go about the Nepalese crisis especially in the query of arms. US have made it comprehensive that it is against the national policy of the United States to support a government that acquire a political party with weapons. They cannot see another Lebanon or Palestine. India seems to give the impression of concern but require enforcing their political and security national policy. Does India support or not support an arms group in the government? India the biggest democracy should insist that all the political parties especially Maoists to disarms and be a legitimate political party who deem in ballots not bullets. The disarming of the Maoists will not just help Nepal to obtain peace, development and democracy the people so desire and require but will help India, the regional power harvest support for the fight against terrorism in India as a contribution to the global fight against terrorism.
Maoists discuss of managing the crisis by Nepalese because of their confidence cause of the arms and fear installed in the population, geography and the lack of confidence in the 7 political parties. Besides Nepali Congress (NC), Nepali Congress Democratic (NCD) and Nepal Sadhavawana Party (NSP) (Ananda Devi) all the other parties representing SPA are communists. How much confidence does the people have on NC, NCD and NSP (Ananda Devi)? It can be rest assured that the people live in fear, lack confidence and existence of terror, extortion, kidnapping in some form or the other. The highways have the attendance of People Liberation Army of the Maoists (PLAM) extracting money from the people in the name of feeding the PLAM and the militias. Why can't the people feed the PLAM and the militias on their will if the Maoists are so confident and the cause they think is for the people of Nepal? The Maoists must conviction in people not arms nor the SPA.
There are republicans who encourage the Maoists as the only process to bring about political change, but do they realise that they are supporting communist arms insurrection and guns not ballot in this century. The republicans must bear in mind and take into account the geopolitical situation and the political and security commotion that may appear in the future.
The dilemma in our land is arms, weapons the PLAM and the militias hold, the PLAM and the militias that were around the Rt. Hon'ble PM's quarter at Baluwataar few days ago and the Maoists assertive leaders. Declaration of raising of arms struggle against a democratic government of Sher Bahadur Deuba and the legitimate representatives of the people is the cause to why the people are not achieving peace and democracy that is required and desired. The people must be free to use their individuals' rights.
Maoists Strategy
The end of the Maoists cease-fire is coming close in about 2 weeks. The Maoists standing on the republican stature before the Constituent Assembly (CA) and a CA for a new constitution issue without separating their weapons claiming for the welfare, celebration and demands put forth by the people, various groups including some of the political parties. These are all part of the strategy for the continuation of the so-called people's war. The concept is to change from decentralisation of operation to a centralisation system. It can be viewed that the ultimate objective is to establish a Communist People's Republic where as the call has been for a new model of democracy.
The Maoist's assumption of leaping forward after the resumption of hostility may be too ambitious to start with and declaration of a republic is another strategy to confuse the people and the security forces. This may be to create a playground for the political parties to resume their party interest and inter-party difference once again as well as to engage them or show how they can come to power by which they may be able to create a favourable environment for the cause of establishing a republic before CA. This is another attempt to expose the political parties of their inefficiencies that they have thrust amongst their followers and sympathisers. This is well played by the Maoists to drag and confuse for their benefit. The Maoists want an atmosphere where they may be able to infiltrate as many as possible in all sectors so that all may unite to act against Nepal Government (NG) and the Institution of Monarchy (IoM). IoM is the focal point for the Maoists. They stress and acknowledge that they are the alternative to IoM. The Maoists will try to create an atmosphere to come to power even if they may have to go to ballots by embracing the political parties challenging the IoM. It is believed that Maoists are 20000 strong and has extended to almost all the districts of the Kingdom. The strategy designed to strike terror and create fear among the general population appears to have been adopted and seems to be succeeding to a larger extent.
Politically IoM and militarily Nepalese Army (NA) is the centre of gravity for the Maoists. The Maoists will not come to a solution with peaceful measures. The Maoists will not be alienated as for the illegal benefits both the leaders and the cadres are receiving in this civilised world.
Nepal is not just the nation in South Asia experiencing acts of terror and destruction b y rebel groups, but India and many other nations have similar inconvenience. Nepal cannot and should not deal with the Maoists crisis on her own but require assistance, co-ordination and co-operation from the international community especially India which will have to face the blunt in the coming future from her terrorist organisations as well.
Can we really see the 25-point agreements being carried effectively by the Maoists?
Are we eager to see extortion, kidnapping, abductions, killings and PLAM's presence not just in highways but also at international borders?
Who is accountable for all the destruction and the deaths after the agreements?
Any agreements have very little meaning when there is no effective mechanism for monitoring and verification. Accountability is the key to such agreements. There needs to be both local and international monitoring system.
UN Involvement
UN cannot be denied as a body representing the international community that has not just assisted nations in distress but has in fact fought for humanity may it be in different forms. Nepal must be clear and specific after understanding the UN method of working and politics the role of the UN. Nepal must specify the role envisioned. The 5-point agreement between the NG and the Maoists serve the basis of UN involvement. The understanding has solicited to acquire civilian personnel to monitor the Code of Conduct and verify the confinement of the Maoists combatants to their relevant cantonment. The 5-point agreement, like the cease-fire agreement also presumes that monitoring of Maoists arms and ammunitions can only be completed when DDR process is instigates. Our land cannot be a site for opportunity, it should be converted to a land where human rights in all forms are respected, freedom is seen and democracy expanded.
Advantages
Bring all side into negotiating table.
Pledge the financial support from donors.
A legitimate organization, which enjoys global respect and recognition.
Will probably try to find a settlement in "all-inclusive basis".
Maoist could safe-land in the mainstream with the involvement of UN, provided their main demands are addressed.
Disadvantages
Not very successful in similar crisis in other parts of world.
Once involved, tries to stay for longer period and try to interfere in all areas of national affairs. National authorities will have to face tremendous pressure with the UN presence.
May prolong the crisis in order to make the case for its employees to find a secure job.
Try to address most of the demands made by rebels thereby limiting the sphere of influence and rights of government side including monarchy.
Will address the demand of constitutional assembly.
Once involved, then this problem will formally be internationalized and there will no point of return. Rebels may enjoy equal advantages as government.
UN may have a standard model or a model that the two opposing parties may come to agreement. The UN should have a model not to encourage the Maoists or any rebel group not just in Nepal but anywhere in the world and the use of arms against a legitimate democratic government for political change through arms insurrection. UN should have a mechanism to bring the guilty to Justice. UN cannot act on their own but require to understand the regional settings and the impact the envisaged model will affect on other nations and rebel groups. India as a regional power and a bordering nation must be taken into consultation before any mechanism is identified and finalised.
What are required are the regional powers to see the regional armed groups problem and its implication in the world. India must take a clear lead in this remark as the communists may shatter the political structure in the region.
Conclusion
The arms the Maoists hold either by the PLAM or the so called militia must be destroyed for political stability and people's security to opt for the better future of a democratic Nepal and South Asia may it be in favour of Maoists ideology or not.
The so called October revolution or a urban insurrection announced or planned by the Maoists need not be taken into priority immediately but may need attention for future courses of action. If the Maoists trust and believe on the people they must act as any other political party.
Prachanda and his allies should face trial or be pardoned. The people need to decide through referendum weather to pardon Maoists dogmatic leaders to participate in the democratic process or trial them for all the loss of property and lives that the Maoists initiated. This will not just give justice to the people but will warn the terrorists and the terror activities not just in Nepal but international.
Nepalese people given a choice to opt the same to the Maoists leaders as in Peru who raised arms against the democratically elected government or the legitimate representatives of the people, which the people may have forgotten. The problem in this nation to acquire peace and democracy the people so desire and require is the arms, militias and the leadership of the Maoists who opted for arms insurrection in this century. Imagine the inanity of the Maoists leaders of an arms insurrection for political change in this century.
IoM and the democratic political parties have to come to better understanding and attention. Nepal Police (NP) and Armed Police Force (APF) must be deployed all over the country to establish conductive and secure atmosphere. The role of the NA will be to assist the NP, APF and the Administration to create a peaceful environment. The democratic political parties must visit all the nook and corner of the country and explain to the people of no more fear and the ones that create fear will be brought to justice. Government machinery and political activities must roll as early as possible before the Maoists opt for more destruction.
China may see her interest being met by enhancing and expediting support to the Maoists.
NG has committed and is prepared to face any eventuality and is aware, capable and ready to protect the life and property of its citizens and defend the sovereignty of the country, freedom of the people, multiparty democracy and constitutional monarchy. The NG should establish time framed objectives so that all the instruments can act upon for the better of the Nepalese people. The attention to the people's cause of dissatisfaction and the root causes of the Maoists issue that has severely caused disorder needs immediate execution with credible options.
Maoists will be defeated for the attainment of their aim of a establishment of a Communist People's Republic if NG modernises the security forces, create a peaceful environment, applause the IoM and addresses the political, social and cultural differences through constitutional amendments.
Yes, from a short-term point of view, you're right. All the items you list below are challenges the state currently faces.
However, I would add that every item you list is an “effect” and not a “cause.” The primary cause in my humble opinion is the abject leadership that emanates from every nook and cranny in Nepal’s structural build. The mentality of “me” before “we” and “them” after “us” is disgusting. The leadership track record across the board is absolutely repulsive and the institutionalized corruption is shameful.
Every leader we’ve seen seems to have grand plans and pie in the sky predictions but has neither a thought-out plan of execution nor a concrete agenda that is remotely selfless. Words like “peace” and “democracy” are hollow if all one can do is utter them and at the same time, have absolutely no concept of how to achieve them.
To wonder why the Maoists (despite what they’ve done) have such a dedicated support base is redundant. It’s because people at the grass roots have seen no evidence of credible options – at least the Maoist dream (however unrealistic it may seem to us), feeds these people and keeps them clothed. Which government has done this in the past?
Yes, the leadership currently in command doesn’t have a glowing history. In fact, they are probably the most discredited of the lot because they screwed up even when opportunities were ripe. But what alternatives are on the plate for Nepalese to choose from?
The Maoist assault on the state will never be justified but neither will the injustices that were (and continue to be) inflicted on the population by a politically savvy elite.
I think the “stupidity” you outline at the conclusion of your message is better stated this way: “Imagine the stupidity of Nepali leaders, thinking that in this day and age, they could continue to promise people a utopian solution, no plan in mind and no delivery capacity in sight.” How's this for stupidity?
Just my two cents.........
The King of Jordan says "Democracy means different things to different nations"
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