The Israeli - Turkish relations
Ahmed Hany
January 30, 2010
Are the contradicting signs of the diplomatically troubled relation a reflection of a strategic change? Could Israel or Turkey afford severing this relation? Could the Turkish government go to the end of the road against the will of military institution? Does Turkish government follow the rule of the region which is talk about Palestine to win hearts then do anything?
To address these question one should return to the basis that made these two countries allies. Turkey is a NATO member and it hosts the biggest American air force base Ingrlik in the region. The Americans store arms in Israel. Apart from the global strategies that oblige them to have a certain level of alliance both countries have problems with a common neighbor that Syria. Until now Israel occupies Golan Heights and Syria did not recognize Iskandrona region a Turkish territory. Syria complains that Turkish projects decreased its quota of riversī water that came from Turkey. It is expected that water will be a major security subject that may lead to wars.
Yet the geopolitical facts add to controversy. Turkey is surrounded by two historical enemies that are Russia and Iran. Before the Islamic revolution both Turkey and Iran were in the Western block but after the revolution the Turkish-Iranian relation witnessed disturbances. Regarding the Russian factor Turkey needs a southern ally to form a depth. Egypt served this role during the Ottoman Empire and the Egyptian army saved Turkey during Mohamed Ali era. The improved relations with Russia and Iran are a compromise and accommodation to decrease the risk. However until there is a real alliance between Russia and the West and there is a satisfactory end for the Iranian nuclear file Turkey cannot change its strategic alliances in the region from the geopolitical point of view.
Israel needs Turkey now as well. Russia sees the Israeli nuclear arms a direct threat. Israel serves the Western and American strategy in the region and it was one of the main arms suppliers to Georgia. However both Russia and Israel have common strategic interest to separate Turkey from its geopolitical normal Egypt not to have another Eastern Empire. This explains the progress of the Russian-Israeli relations after the US reached the point of reconciliation with the Islamic World. And this explains also the increasing tension of the Turkish-Israeli relation. In other dimension the row between Turkey and Israel may reflect change of alliances if the peace process succeeded. Failure of peace process makes Turkey a vital ally because Russia will not sever its relations with Syria to have influence in the Eastern Mediterranean.
Some analysts talked about the internal political situation in Turkey and the desire of the Turkish government to change internal balance to downsize the influence of army generals by decreasing the external risk with neighbors. In this case the government may let relations with Israel deteriorate as it does not pose a direct risk for the Turkish homeland even the Zionist project does not affect the Turkish territories.
Another dimension is the Turkish will to exert its regional role through playing the role of a political mediator whether in the Syrian track or in the Iranian nuclear file. This dimension put a ceiling for any Turkish-Israeli conflict. There is a direct Iranian desire to let Turkey play this role not give all files of the peace process to Egypt and Saudi Arabia so that it could use the Palestinian cause to serve its nuclear file. Syria the Iranian ally did not ask Egypt or Jordan to mediate between it and Israel despite being common members in the Arab League and having relations with Israel. This explains the improved Iranian-Turkish relations lately. And this explains why the Turkish government took stiff reaction to Gaza war and it did not take similar steps during the previous years of conservative Islamic party rule in Turkey.
Some analysts talked about American-Israeli-Turkish plan to improve the Turkish face so that Turkey can play a role in the American new Middle East plans. The supporters of this view told about the military cooperation between Turkey and Israel that has never stopped. Turkey bought unmanned military warplanes at one hundred and eighty million dollars from Israel. The strategic agreement between the two countries gives Turkey accessibility to the advanced Israeli military technology. After the diplomatic row and before the visit of the Israeli Defence Minister Ehud Barak to Ankara, a Turkish high profile military delegate visited Tel Aviv. There are four air force exercises between the two countries yearly. The security cooperation between the two countries never stopped. Israel has relations with the Iraqi Kurds and stirring troubles through them annoys Turkey.
The conclusion is both the Turkish military institutions and the government adjust the tempo of the Turkish-Israeli relations according to serve the Turkish strategy and its foreign policy. In Israel this tempo is also adjusted by the army mainly. The Turkish government applies the regional rule of talking about Palestine to advance its foreign policy and letting the army to do the real job strategically.
To address these question one should return to the basis that made these two countries allies. Turkey is a NATO member and it hosts the biggest American air force base Ingrlik in the region. The Americans store arms in Israel. Apart from the global strategies that oblige them to have a certain level of alliance both countries have problems with a common neighbor that Syria. Until now Israel occupies Golan Heights and Syria did not recognize Iskandrona region a Turkish territory. Syria complains that Turkish projects decreased its quota of riversī water that came from Turkey. It is expected that water will be a major security subject that may lead to wars.
Yet the geopolitical facts add to controversy. Turkey is surrounded by two historical enemies that are Russia and Iran. Before the Islamic revolution both Turkey and Iran were in the Western block but after the revolution the Turkish-Iranian relation witnessed disturbances. Regarding the Russian factor Turkey needs a southern ally to form a depth. Egypt served this role during the Ottoman Empire and the Egyptian army saved Turkey during Mohamed Ali era. The improved relations with Russia and Iran are a compromise and accommodation to decrease the risk. However until there is a real alliance between Russia and the West and there is a satisfactory end for the Iranian nuclear file Turkey cannot change its strategic alliances in the region from the geopolitical point of view.
Israel needs Turkey now as well. Russia sees the Israeli nuclear arms a direct threat. Israel serves the Western and American strategy in the region and it was one of the main arms suppliers to Georgia. However both Russia and Israel have common strategic interest to separate Turkey from its geopolitical normal Egypt not to have another Eastern Empire. This explains the progress of the Russian-Israeli relations after the US reached the point of reconciliation with the Islamic World. And this explains also the increasing tension of the Turkish-Israeli relation. In other dimension the row between Turkey and Israel may reflect change of alliances if the peace process succeeded. Failure of peace process makes Turkey a vital ally because Russia will not sever its relations with Syria to have influence in the Eastern Mediterranean.
Some analysts talked about the internal political situation in Turkey and the desire of the Turkish government to change internal balance to downsize the influence of army generals by decreasing the external risk with neighbors. In this case the government may let relations with Israel deteriorate as it does not pose a direct risk for the Turkish homeland even the Zionist project does not affect the Turkish territories.
Another dimension is the Turkish will to exert its regional role through playing the role of a political mediator whether in the Syrian track or in the Iranian nuclear file. This dimension put a ceiling for any Turkish-Israeli conflict. There is a direct Iranian desire to let Turkey play this role not give all files of the peace process to Egypt and Saudi Arabia so that it could use the Palestinian cause to serve its nuclear file. Syria the Iranian ally did not ask Egypt or Jordan to mediate between it and Israel despite being common members in the Arab League and having relations with Israel. This explains the improved Iranian-Turkish relations lately. And this explains why the Turkish government took stiff reaction to Gaza war and it did not take similar steps during the previous years of conservative Islamic party rule in Turkey.
Some analysts talked about American-Israeli-Turkish plan to improve the Turkish face so that Turkey can play a role in the American new Middle East plans. The supporters of this view told about the military cooperation between Turkey and Israel that has never stopped. Turkey bought unmanned military warplanes at one hundred and eighty million dollars from Israel. The strategic agreement between the two countries gives Turkey accessibility to the advanced Israeli military technology. After the diplomatic row and before the visit of the Israeli Defence Minister Ehud Barak to Ankara, a Turkish high profile military delegate visited Tel Aviv. There are four air force exercises between the two countries yearly. The security cooperation between the two countries never stopped. Israel has relations with the Iraqi Kurds and stirring troubles through them annoys Turkey.
The conclusion is both the Turkish military institutions and the government adjust the tempo of the Turkish-Israeli relations according to serve the Turkish strategy and its foreign policy. In Israel this tempo is also adjusted by the army mainly. The Turkish government applies the regional rule of talking about Palestine to advance its foreign policy and letting the army to do the real job strategically.
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