NASCAR Notebook: California
If the pressure of making the Chase hasn’t caught up to the 11 drivers fighting for 10 positions yet, you can rest assured by the time the green flag waves at the California Speedway Sunday evening it will have hit them in full force.
With just two races until the field for the 2006 Chase for the Nextel Cup is locked in there is absolutely no room for a mistake that is likely to dash one driver’s dreams and fulfill another’s.
Scott Riggs will not be one of the drivers holding his breathe lap after lap Sunday but he will be one that contends for the win.
Riggs, currently 19th in points, has finished inside the top 15 in each of his last two races, including an impressive fourth place finish last week at Bristol.
Despite failing to qualify his new race team for the Daytona 500 Riggs has done a suburb job all season in the No. 10 Valvoline Dodge and will look to continue preparing for 2007 by earning a solid finish at California.
As the post-season continues to get closer and closer all eyes will be on the No. 48 Lowe’s Chevy of Jimmie Johnson.
Johnson has held the point lead for the majority of each of the last two seasons only to fall short of the ultimate prize.
As the circuit travels to California Johnson, along with Matt Kenseth, can breathe a little easier knowing he has already clinched a spot to race for the title but that doesn’t mean he won’t be looking to race for a win.
The No. 48 team has been outstanding on the cookie-cutter tracks this year and came close to beating Kenseth in the spring race before earning a second place finish.
Look for Johnson to make a run at the pole and then the checkered flag as he continues his quest to prove he and his race team are capable of hoisting NASCAR’s ultimate prize once we get to Homestead.
The man who held off Johnson for the win in the spring, Kenseth, has to be considered the hottest driver on the circuit right now.
With consecutive wins in Michigan and Bristol the No. 17 DeWalt Ford team is certainly peaking at the right time of the season.
Look for Kenseth, the last driver to win a championship before the Chase for the Nextel Cup was implemented, to mimic his performance from February as he looks to make it three in a row.
I think our chance is much better [to win the championship] as far as pure performance than what it was in 2003,” said Kenseth. “So it's a great opportunity for us and we're going to do everything we can to capitalize on it.”
Look for Kenseth to qualify mid pack, as usual, and not only compete for the checkered flag but the points lead as well, after all, he will head into Fontana just seven points shy of Johnson and the top spot in points.
Greg Biffle led an amazing 168 laps in February’s California race before an engine failure, a devastating prelude to the type of season last year’s runner up to the championship would eventually go on to have, prevented him from finishing the race.
Before the rare Roush/Yates engine failure, however, Biffle came close to putting half the field a lap down his No. 16 National Guard Ford Fusion was so fast, so don’t be surprised if he and his race team bring the same car, minus the engine, to Fontana this Sunday.
Though technically Biffle still has an outside shot at making the Chase, his comments after his 19th place finish Saturday night in Bristol said it all.
We’re screwed,” Biffle said.
Currently in the 12th position in points Biffle would need virtually two wins in a row plus the misfortune of one drive two weeks in a row to even have a sniff at the Chase but that doesn’t mean he won’t be looking for his second win of 2006.
Expect Biffle to win the pole award and lead as many laps as he can as he continues to fight and claw his way to an amazing and improbably run at the playoffs.
If there is one thing the No. 16 team has shown in the past it is not to count them out and a win in California could be just what the doctor ordered for the race team that has been on life support on more than one occasion this season.
Prediction: When the Chase for the Nextel Cup was implemented in NASCAR it was designed to create more intrigue during the 26 races leading up to the 10 race shootout.
While it has done that with a great deal of success it has also given drivers like Kasey Kahne a lot of sleepless nights in the final races leading up to the Chase.
Just a few short weeks ago Kahne and the No. 9 Dodge Dealers Dodge team was sitting comfortably in fourth position in points, until two last lap crashes in a row in Indianapolis and Watkins Glen put Kahne on the outside looking in faster than a blink of an eye.
Currently in 11th position and realistically the only driver outside the top 10 with a shot at making the post-season look for Kahne, who has absolutely dominated cookie-cutter tracks in 06’ with three of his four wins coming on mile-and-a-half tracks.
Kahne has proven he belongs with the big boys in 2006 and until his late season luck turned bad he earned eight top 15 finishes in 14 races.
Look for the No. 9 Dodge to get out in front early and fight with everything its got to stay there as long as possible, bonus points for leading a lap and leading the most laps will be critical to its cause.
Kahne will display his true talent as a driver Sunday and solidify his place in the Chase by doing so.
New Set of Chase Victims Are Left Scratching Their Heads
Last year it was Dale Earnhardt Jr. and Jeff Gordon, arguably the two biggest names in motor sports.
The four-time Cup champion and the son of a legend were looking ahead at 2006 when the 10-race Chase for the Nextel Cup kicked off in New Hampshire having failed to qualify in the 26 previous races.
Meanwhile, Greg Biffle was second in points, winner of five races at that point and looking to win the first championship of his career.
Carl Edwards was also rolling right along in what amounted to be his rookie season, he ended up finishing third in points and winner of five races himself.
Kurt Busch was also competing for a championship, at least for the first two laps of New Hampshire before Ryan Newman spun him out and put an end to that.
And though his season ended two races short before making the switch to Penske Racing Busch still earned three wins and qualified for the Chase.
My oh my how times have changed.
As the third installment of the Chase for the Nextel Cup prepares to get under way Gordon and Earnhardt are both in the field, at least for now, and Biffle, Edwards and Busch are on the outside looking in.
For Biffle it has been a rollercoaster of a year he’d like to forget sooner rather than later.
After starting the season with three DNF’s in the first seven races Biffle was forced to claw his way back inside the top 10, something he and the No. 16 race team did twice throughout the season before another spout of bad luck dropped them as far down as 13th in points.
The failure to make the playoffs has left a bad taste in the mouth of last year’s runner up.
If you're not in the Chase, you're nobody,” Biffle said. "Those are kind of harsh words, but that's what everybody wants, they want to be in the Chase.”
Edwards has had similar bad luck in 06’
After an exciting year in 2005 Edwards has finished 20th or worse in 10 races this season and has run just 95 percent of the possible laps run.
Despite earning fourth place in last week’s Sharpie 500 Edwards chances at making the post-season are all but mathematically gone and he and the No. 99 team are looking ahead at 2007.
We're going to use these next 12 or 13 races to test for '07,” a disappointed Edwards said on pit road after last Saturday’s race. “We've kind of had a long, rough year with the luck, so we'll just make the most of it and go on and have a good time.”
After winning the spring Bristol race Busch appeared to be well on his way to at least getting a shot at his second Cup title in three years but a string of bad luck and bad decisions left him outside the title picture for the first time in several years.
Despite a desperate run over the last three or four weeks to get in by the skin of their teeth Busch was officially eliminated from contention last Saturday night after getting involved a in a crash that left him in 37th position.
The idea of the Chase has to be considered a gleaming success on NASCAR’s part but that success has to be taken with a grain of salt, knowing that in each year at least a handful of popular frontrunners will miss out on all the excitement.
Nevertheless, the Chase has forced every race team to bring their “A” game with them every week or else they are thrown by the waste side, a demanding yet necessary factor in today’s ultra competitive world of motor sports.
Random Thoughts
Whether it was the fact that every driver was on eggshells because of the looming Chase or some other inexplicable reason but I couldn’t help but think what a tame race Bristol turned out to be last Saturday.
Four top 20’s in his last five races isn’t exactly setting the world on fire but Kenny Schrader and the No. 21 Little Debbie’s team has to be happy with the direction that race team is going.
With the NFL reaching out to the weeknight, primetime format to kick off its season it makes you wonder if scheduling a race or two on a Thursday night wouldn’t do the same good for NASCAR.
If Kasey Kahne battles his way into the Chase that means one of the current top 10 drivers will be out…my guess…Jeff Burton.