US$40B = 1yr.Surge or 10yr Edu? BNSF=SmartGrid RoW, SuperFreakonomics + Gladwell

Self-Deception is Unbecoming in a Secretary of State

You may recall, if you´ve been a loyal reader for a long, long time (more than a year, at least) that I told you I actually switched my voter registration from Independent to Democratic Party in order to vote for Hilary Clinton in the Democratic Presidential Primary election last year. I still have enormous respect and admiration for the Secretary of State´s intelligence and accomplishments. But I suspect that either she has been under the mistaken impression that President Reagan´s government and his policies had a primary role in the fall of the former Soviet Union, or repeating the myth that it was a military victory so many times (because as a staunch [large-D] Democrat she couldn´t call it a political victory: that would be a credit on the Republican side of the ledger that could almost never be balanced) that she has been self-deluded in believing the myth herself. Yes, the CIA and the Armed Forces has "something" to do with the end of the "Evil Empire" as Reagan called it, but to heap too much credit in that direction would be an error.

NO, quite clearly the "war" , the "cold war" against the Soviets (whom we often mistakenly called "the Russians") was won not by Reagan and the CIA, or even his nutty "Star Wars" defense shield program. The winners, in addition to the people of all the Soviet Socialist Republics, were Levi´s and Coca-Cola, The Beatles, The Beach Boys, and especially deserving of much of the credit was MTV.

Now it is okay if you don´t believe me. It is okay if most people in the world have not learned this important lesson in modern global politics. But it is a glaring mistake when the Secretary of State is not aware that she has not learned this lesson and blurts out her obvious ignorance on the Charlie Rose on PBS show when he interviewed her a few days ago in Germany on the anniversary of the fall of the Berlin Wall.

Nor am I even suggesting that she break with the "party line" of the public myth that it was the military-industrial complex and political policies that brought the Soviet Republics to their knees, but she should be aware enough of the real influences that changed the world that she would not make the statements that she did. Secretary Clinton said, "We fight wars in the strategic interests of the United States. Would it be nice if the level of education in Afghanistan was a little higher, I am sure it would. Would it serve America´s strategic interests? I don´t think so."

Someone needs to inform Madam Secretary that sending 10,000 "educational advisors" (to borrow and update the Vietnam euphemism) and pumping about US$40,000,000,000 into supporting the complete budget of the Afghan educational system for the next 10 years (all included in the US$40 billion) would pretty much guarantee the end of what Secretary Clinton called, "the new walls" of fanaticism and intolerance that divide the world since the end of the bipolar US-Soviet cold war, at least for the nation of Afghanistan. Make education of the country´s youth our top priority, and make sure it is a secular education with mandatory and universal attendance required. It certainly would go a long way to maintaining the peace of the land to outlaw assault weapons, and to confiscate and destroy any and all of them throughout the land, but I doubt that our American arms dealers would allow us to get such a law passed even in a country on the opposite side of the world that has been wracked by war, tribal skirmishes, and sectarian violence for 40 years, but it´s just a thought about how to help our peace-keeping forces actually keep the peace and avoid having their members being killed quite so often.

Message to the White House

If my suggestion of US$40 billion sounds expensive (for 10 years of total support for their education system, remember), let´s compare that to the military budget for a 40,000 man increase in American troops in Afghanistan. Let´s ignore the costs of getting them there, and just apply the figure that was quoted this Sunday on This Week with George Stephanopolous that it costs approximately US$1,000,000 per man per year to keep a US fighting soldier in a foreign country (partly because these days that usually also includes a corresponding "private contractor" in support). Therefore, US$40,000,000,000 is exactly ONE YEAR´S BUDGET for a 40,000 man surge.

Afghanistan has about 10 million school age children, about half of them not attending schools in large part (two-thirds) because of gender discrimination against girls. They have about 12000 schools, although half of those either meet outdoors or in a tent and it is impossible to say what percentage of those have no curriculum other than rote memorization of the Quran. A 40,000 TEACHER SURGE for 10 years, paying them US$60,000 (a positively princely salary for someone working in Afghanistan who is not in the government or the drug trade), would cost a total of US$24 billion, still leaving more than US$1.3 million per school for construction, books and equipment.

For those who are still worried about al-Qaeda in Afghanistan, the pundits tell us there are only about 50 or 60 serious al-Qaeda bad guys in the whole country now, the majority having skedaddled over the border into Pakistan, so about a dozen policemen should be able to take care of them.

How do you get all those kids to go to school every day? You give them iPhones and DO NOT GIVE THEM ANY CHARGERS, all of which are kept under close supervision at the school. Supply school lessons and internet access, plus free iTunes accounts and you would be amazed how quickly the country could be pacified. Oh, yes, if you can´t get Apple to participate in a VERY heavily discounted pricing scheme for the iPhones, you could always send them Motorola Droids instead. If you don´t believe me on this point, ask the younger members of the CIA who have studied the history of that organization in Southeast Asia.

In the section above I just passed on the apparently flippant remark that if sources are correct that Afghanistan now only contains about 50 or 60 serious al-Qaeda members that a dozen policemen should be able to handle them. I truly believe that unless the situation is being misrepresented to us that anti-terrorism should now be a police law enforcement matter. In fact, it should always have been a police law enforcement matter. Interpol, not US troops should have been the follow up to the ousting of the previous Taliban government. Yes, I recognize that in Afghanistan, where the CIA (and more particularly Charlie Wilson) had supplied the mujahedeen with thousands of AK-47´s (not to mention RPG´s and shoulder-held anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles ) that military support following the fall of the Taliban government might have been needed initially, but pay attention folks, please! We "toppled the government" when only 2500 US troops were on the ground in Afghanistan. How many modern soldiers, armed to the teeth does it take to disarm tribe after tribe, warlord after warlord of local warring factions, leaving just enough firepower for the chieftain to have his own "police force" to maintain local law and order.

Pumpkin Pies and Green Tech Prize

The cover of Bakery Management magazine this month is a vast rack of pumpkin pies in honor of that tradition associated with American holiday of Thanksgiving, but the headline that caught my attention from the IBA show in Germany was an award presented to MIWE for an innovation on a cooling system that uses a water-based coolant. The traditional ammonia coolant still has the greatest cooling effect, but the potential for toxicity (and especially the greenhouse gas effect if accidentally released) leads to optimism that MIWE´s new coolant and heat absorption system will make it a popular alternative. The current alternative coolant is usually lithium bromide, which can only cool down to somewhere in the +5 to +7 range (Celsius) compared to the new MIWE´s water-based coolant which does much better, in the -10 Celsius range.

The MIWE eco:freeze can produce up to 10KW of refrigeration and was considered so impressive it was awarded one of the 12 trophies by the IBA prize committee. The absorption system that uses lost heat from baking ovens to power freezing units. FoodProductionDaily.com carries the following quote: "Energy in Germany eats up between 3-5 per cent of the baking industry´s turnover," Miwe´s Dr Hans–Jurgen Stahl said. "More than 70 per cent of the electricity, which makes up 20 per cent of the total energy cost, is consumed for heating and refrigeration." His statement is a clear indication that Dr. Hans-Jurgen thinks this is significant, but what he meant remains a complete mystery to me.

Note to Warren Buffet

This is an open note to Warren Buffet regarding his purchase of BNSF Railroad and all of its assets. Congratulations, you may just have saved the nation hundreds of billions of dollars. You may also have just put BNSF in a position to absorb a good portion of the DOE offer of US$8 billion for development of the "smart grid". If you will indulge me for a moment, I believe I can show that Secretary Chu has already been introduced to this concept as I mention in my previous column of October 27, 2009. Here´s the relevant couple of paragraphs section:

"Not entirely surprisingly, eminent domain was a topic in the public questions for Secretaries Locke and Chu as well. This one was extremely perceptive, in my opinion, because it proposed that the use of eminent domain (the government´s right to [expropriate] property for public use, with fair compensation to the property owner) for Smart Grid transmission corridors could also provide the nation with new corridors for high speed passenger transport. Wouldn´t that be possible? Wouldn´t that be "smart" especially in light of the fact that almost all high speed rail is essentially electrically powered?"

"I know that smells like Haliburton to many people who at first glance fear that such a huge "government undertaking" would end up with more of a train wreck than a functioning train system, but … the historical precedents of Robber Barons building the nation´s first railroads … especially obvious in the history of the making of trans-national railroads, and the massive beyond-all-reason land grants that came with the privilege of doing so on the nation´s behalf. However doesn´t it just make sense to put the electric powered trains where the electric power is or rather "will be" when the new Smart Grid power lines are completed (in the spaces between populations centers in particular). Doesn´t it make sense to put those two important environmental issues on a single "track" that virtually eliminates fossil fuels for long distance travel by making a new transportation medium that competes with the high speed of airlines without the use of liquid fuels?"

Except in the case of Mr. Buffet and BNSF the case is inverted. BNSF already has clear right-of-way between and through most major cities for its railway. In most places on that right-of-way it has enough clearance on either side (or even both sides) for transmission towers, and indeed if they wanted to do so (and I certainly hope "they" would) they could actually make the extreme high voltage transmission system part of the same system that powers high speed railways. Which is not to say that BNSF should not also be converting their current diesel electric locomotives to run on biodiesel fuel or biodiesel-biobutanol combinations, but electric powered high speed rail is desperately needed in the USA and this looks to me like a perfect opportunity for one of the world´s richest men to make a significant contribution to the future of the nation which afforded him the opportunities to become so by upgrading this crucial infrastructure of railroad beds and smart grid transmission lines, together.

Perhaps I should be writing to Mr. Buffet himself, but I think chances are better that a few of his friends and advisors may read this, here. If they pass along this suggestion to him (as I sincerely hope they will) so that he hears it multiple times from those friends and advisors he knows and trusts, then perhaps he will give it some serious thought. Maybe he´ll even bring it up to Dr. Steven Chu. I can only hope, though if you happen to be one of those friends and advisors, please do pass this on to Dr. Chu and Mr. Buffet.

A Sympathetic Note to the Diesel Brewing Co.

Diesel Brewing is a biofuels company based in the Pacific Northwest who set out to make a product that was to be a mixture of alcohols as fuels. Their basic concept was to gasify wood waste (and other biomass) into "syn-gas" and from there use a proprietary iron-based catalyst (apparently licensed from UOP) to manipulate the gases into biobutanol, ethanol, and methanol, with the emphasis on biobutanol, since it can be used, like ethanol currently is as a blend stock with conventional gasoline, but can also be mixed with diesel (EPA approves up to 11% as a gasoline additive but Argonne National Laboratories demonstrations have shown 20% butanol in conventional diesel is also highly effective in diesel engines intended for 100% diesel, too), or just used as a "drop-in replacement" for gasoline. Reportedly they can tweak their process to tip the balance in favor of any of biobutanol, ethanol, methanol or biodiesel or biojet.

What is unusual about Diesel Brewing´s plans, and what has endeared them to me is the fact that they plan to use dairy cattle manure as their biomass feedstock to the process, although if they should ever run short of manure they can substitute wood product waste instead. Back about Apil of this year (2009) they announced that they expected to have a proof of concept facility up and operating by the end of this year. Now it looks more like they MAY be able to start construction somewhere in Salem, Oregon, by December of 2009. Their full 10 dry weight tons per day plant planned for Boardman, Oregon, next year will now probably be the following year, and they remain optimistic that they can get a 100 dry weight tons per day plant into operation sometime in the not TOO distant future, also in Boardman. With an estimated 2.6 million tons of dairy manure per year in Oregon that is perhaps 1.5% of the available feedstock, so let us hope that a few more will sprout after that.

Literary Entertainment

Okay, calling this "literature" may be elevating it above its proper station, but I am distinguishing this from a movie or television review. There are a couple of books out this week that deserve more attention than the one from that female moose killer.

What the Dog Saw: And Other Adventures is the latest book from Malcolm Gladwell, bestselling author of Outliers: The Story of Success and the even more famous, blink which still ranks #137 on Amazon´s bestseller lists today. All three books are worth a look, but the latest is focused on seeing things from unique perspectives. The title refers to Gladwell´s interpretation of what a dog´s impression might be of meeting and interacting with Cesar Milan, "the Dog Whisperer" from the television show of the same name.

Second book to make my list of recommendations this month is SuperFreakonomics: Global Cooling, Patriotic Prostitutes, and Why Suicide Bombers Should Buy Life Insurance by Steven D. Leavitt and Steven J. Dubner. Economist Leavitt is the "creative" thinker, whose statistical studies have led him to conclude that July 4th is the "hooker holiday", at least in Chicago, thus "patriotic prostitutes" of the title. But it is the "Global Cooling" that caught my attention. Leavitt and Dubner bring forth a number of ideas about climate change that are, like the unique Gladwell perspectives on topics, important yet innovative ways of looking at problems. Among the most interesting is the fact that one of the potential causes of global warming may be a lack, or at least a reduction in the number of available nuclei on which water droplets can form to create white, fluffy, reflective clouds which would reflect a larger percentage of the sunlight into space. One suggestion for meeting this challenge is to have boats cruising the oceans (wind powered, possibly robotic or re-mote piloted presumably) whose sole purpose is to spray fine mists of salt water into the air. Not for the purpose of adding moisture to the air, but rather that in very fine mists, when the water portion did evaporate the tiny salt crystals would be wafted higher into the atmosphere where they would form a solid nucleus on which water would condense and form more clouds, blocking more sun, and thus contributing to a cooler earth, provided such an activity was carried out on a sufficiently vast scale. That is one of the more obviously sensible suggestions. Others range from wackier to improbable.

But among the ideas in the Super Freakonomics book is one which stands out as an example of the "Law of Unintended Consequences". Leavitt suggests that at least in part, one of the reasons we may be seeing less cloud cover that results in greater warming of the earth´s climate and shifting weather patterns is the fact that we decided we had to clean up the particulate pollution from industrial smokestacks along with the hydrogen sulfide, sulfur dioxide and other sources of "acid rain". Environmental regulations greatly reduced the incidence of fly ash, soot, and innumerable other particulates coming from smelters, coal and petroleum fired electric generating facilities by the thousands. It is possible that we so effectively cleaned the air (despite some remaining urban smog conditions) that we brought about this shortage of nuclei that generate cloud formation.

Happy Thoughts

Let me tell you a little about my Holiday shopping this year. I received a catalogue in the mail this year with the bold statement across the cover, "The Most Important Gift Catalog in the World". I scoffed out loud at first, saying, "Yeah, right! Sure." Then I took a closer look.

I was ashamed at my cynicism. I do believe it was, at minimum, one of the most valuable catalogs I have ever received. I don´t mean it carried the most expensive gifts in the world like the Hammacher Schlemmer catalog, although if you have a tax problem that you need to divest yourself of a lot of cash before the end of the year, by all means, this catalog has two pages that offer either US$5,000 items or an item for US$10,000. There is also no question that the "spirit of the gift" is an important part too. But in this case, it IS the gift that "counts".

The catalog is from Heifer International. The basic concept is that the "gift" of an domesticated animal is the beginning of economic self-sufficiency for a family. The family also receives some basic training in appropriate animal husbandry, and takes on the obligation to pass on the gift. The "pass on the gift" pledge means that at least one of the off-spring of the animal (or animals) they receive will be given to another family to multiply the effect, and that family too, must continue the legacy by passing on one goat, sheep, heifer, camel, llama, or oxen, or duck. Camels and heifers are pricey even by North American standards but Heifer International also a "share of a pig" for US$10, in case giving a whole pig for US$120 is a bit fatter than your wallet this season. If a whole pig is only twice as much as you had in mind to spend, checek out whether you company might be willing to match your gift. Heifer International has a page listing some of the companies that have made such a generous commitment, making it easy to check. If you work for Google or AOL, they´ll match (although I don´t know about specific terms or limitations). If you work for Xerox, IBM or Exxon, you might want to check with your human resources department or public relations division to see about joining in on this work. Some 130,000 families were helped last year, with some training or other benefits for nearly a half million more.

Love and warm wishes,

Sincerely,

Stafford "Doc" Williamson

http://daochienergy.com