Turkey's global and regional roles
Ahmed Hany
November 10, 2009
The last Turkish political moves initiated divisions between political analysts. The first group thinks that Turkey is in the way towards a strategic shift. The second group considers these moves a well tailored plan to serve the European membership negotiations. After blocking a NATO military exercise to close doors for Israel to share, the Turkish President Raceb Taieb Ardogan went to Tehran where she expressed sympathy with the Persian state in its nuclear file negotiations with the great powers.
What is the Turkish strategy? What is the Turkish role in the global strategy of the West as a NATO member? What is the Turkish regional role to serve its global role? Does a Turkish bigger role in the Islamic World serve the global Western strategy or not? What are the internal constraints that form the ceiling of the Turkish moves? The answers of these questions clear the last political moves and determine their strategic or tactic nature.
Before addressing these questions, the role of any country is a geopolitical fact more than a political option. In other words, stability of the world and its regions depends on the proper recognition of nations´ roles and allowing these nations to exert their roles. Destabilizing any region is the result of blocking a geopolitical role of a country or countries and this process is time limited whether this time is few or many years in the history as nations struggle to be in a harmony with its geopolitical facts and as geopolitical facts play in favor of nations the rebalance process succeeds. To stabilize any region the great forces allow regional forces to properly exert their roles. However when a regional force exaggerates in exerting its role another source of destabilization is present.
Any country that is between two cultural blocks is either an ally of one of them in wartime or an area of cultural exchange during peace. This is reflected on its internal hierarchy legal, political and economic. This is the Turkish case that in the medieval era was the leader and frontier of the Islamic World and in the Cold War was an ally of the West. Since the fall of the late Soviet Union and the start of globalization, cultural exchange has been the function of Turkey especially that reconciliation with the Islamic World became a strategy of the Global force and the West in general.
And that is why during globalization it is doubtful that Turkey will be an EU member not to diminish its role as a cultural exchange center and this is valid for any Eastern or Southern Mediterranean country except only in one case which is establishing an Asian force that extends from China to Iran or may be Iraq passing through Afghanistan to form a block that is hostile to the West. This possibility is the real drive of EU partnership not membership at least now with East and South Mediterranean countries including Turkey. One should remember the Turkish hesitation and suspicion of the Mediterranean Union that may be the available option for its relation with the EU. And this is the real drive behind the American-Islamic reconciliation. More, this is the real drive behind Chinese support to Iran. One should compare the Russian blocking of S-300 missiles and its support for new sanctions if Iran does not comply with Western proposals with the refusal of China to impose more sanctions on Iran or even North Korea.
To exert its role in the phase of reconciliation with Islam, Turkey had to devalue its relations with Israel to a certain extent. Comparing between War on Lebanon, 2006 during Bush legacy and War on Gaza, 2008 during the transitional phase of administration exchange in the US the same Turkish government showed more sympathy with the victims of the Israeli war crimes. The same Turkish government dealt differently with Gaza siege that started with Hamas coup and the first few days of this siege showed a Turkish support for the Palestinian Authority. Whether the Turkish government cancelled the military exercise with NATO and Israel due to show Israel its angriness because of Gaza siege or because of delay of delivery of the thirty unmanned military planes that the same government bought from the Hebrew state, the stiff political stance serves the Turkish mission within the global strategy.
Internally, the Turkish government has to consider the army and the constitutional court before deciding any strategy that may change Kamal Ataturk teachings. Constitutionally, the army serves as a guard for the secularity of the state, the Turkish nationality, the integrity of the nation and the European dimension of the nation. Governments win and lose in elections because of three factors. The first is the economy, the second is the Kurdish problem and the third is the EU membership dream. In fact during most of the times during the Cold War Turkey was not a democracy and it witnessed some military coups, however that did not affect its position in NATO as the second biggest army after the US.
The Turkish government announced that it aborted a military coup and the abettors are now under trial. The relations between the army and the government is tense and despite that the ruling party won a landslide elections last year the secular forces lost by only few votes in each electorate. This means that about forty five to leas than fifty percent of voters are opponents. The Turkish ruling party knows that if the army took power the EU opposition would be limited to the media. Even if economic sanctions are imposed it would not affect the country. Previously economic sanctions were imposed on Pakistan however the West was in alliance with Purviz Mesharaf due to geopolitical factors. Even after the Iranian revolution both Israel and the US smuggled weapons to the Iranian regime to keep the war as long as they can. It is doubtful that Turkey will not take a hostile stance against Iran if the later developed a nuclear weapon. Yet democracy to some extent should be present in Turkey as one of its main functions is to represent a formula between moderate Islam and the secular state for the Islamic World. That is why military coups usually end after a transitional phase that prepares for controlled elections.
Therefore, given the internal and the geopolitical factors, the Turkish government uses tactic maneuvers to empower its position in membership negotiations. At the same time distancing the nation from Israel serves the global role. No capital in the West commented with hostility on the visit of the Turkish president to Tehran. There are some circles that may constitute mutual benefits for both Arabs and Turkey. But first the Arabs should define precisely their role in the world and in the global strategies.
What is the Turkish strategy? What is the Turkish role in the global strategy of the West as a NATO member? What is the Turkish regional role to serve its global role? Does a Turkish bigger role in the Islamic World serve the global Western strategy or not? What are the internal constraints that form the ceiling of the Turkish moves? The answers of these questions clear the last political moves and determine their strategic or tactic nature.
Before addressing these questions, the role of any country is a geopolitical fact more than a political option. In other words, stability of the world and its regions depends on the proper recognition of nations´ roles and allowing these nations to exert their roles. Destabilizing any region is the result of blocking a geopolitical role of a country or countries and this process is time limited whether this time is few or many years in the history as nations struggle to be in a harmony with its geopolitical facts and as geopolitical facts play in favor of nations the rebalance process succeeds. To stabilize any region the great forces allow regional forces to properly exert their roles. However when a regional force exaggerates in exerting its role another source of destabilization is present.
Any country that is between two cultural blocks is either an ally of one of them in wartime or an area of cultural exchange during peace. This is reflected on its internal hierarchy legal, political and economic. This is the Turkish case that in the medieval era was the leader and frontier of the Islamic World and in the Cold War was an ally of the West. Since the fall of the late Soviet Union and the start of globalization, cultural exchange has been the function of Turkey especially that reconciliation with the Islamic World became a strategy of the Global force and the West in general.
And that is why during globalization it is doubtful that Turkey will be an EU member not to diminish its role as a cultural exchange center and this is valid for any Eastern or Southern Mediterranean country except only in one case which is establishing an Asian force that extends from China to Iran or may be Iraq passing through Afghanistan to form a block that is hostile to the West. This possibility is the real drive of EU partnership not membership at least now with East and South Mediterranean countries including Turkey. One should remember the Turkish hesitation and suspicion of the Mediterranean Union that may be the available option for its relation with the EU. And this is the real drive behind the American-Islamic reconciliation. More, this is the real drive behind Chinese support to Iran. One should compare the Russian blocking of S-300 missiles and its support for new sanctions if Iran does not comply with Western proposals with the refusal of China to impose more sanctions on Iran or even North Korea.
To exert its role in the phase of reconciliation with Islam, Turkey had to devalue its relations with Israel to a certain extent. Comparing between War on Lebanon, 2006 during Bush legacy and War on Gaza, 2008 during the transitional phase of administration exchange in the US the same Turkish government showed more sympathy with the victims of the Israeli war crimes. The same Turkish government dealt differently with Gaza siege that started with Hamas coup and the first few days of this siege showed a Turkish support for the Palestinian Authority. Whether the Turkish government cancelled the military exercise with NATO and Israel due to show Israel its angriness because of Gaza siege or because of delay of delivery of the thirty unmanned military planes that the same government bought from the Hebrew state, the stiff political stance serves the Turkish mission within the global strategy.
Internally, the Turkish government has to consider the army and the constitutional court before deciding any strategy that may change Kamal Ataturk teachings. Constitutionally, the army serves as a guard for the secularity of the state, the Turkish nationality, the integrity of the nation and the European dimension of the nation. Governments win and lose in elections because of three factors. The first is the economy, the second is the Kurdish problem and the third is the EU membership dream. In fact during most of the times during the Cold War Turkey was not a democracy and it witnessed some military coups, however that did not affect its position in NATO as the second biggest army after the US.
The Turkish government announced that it aborted a military coup and the abettors are now under trial. The relations between the army and the government is tense and despite that the ruling party won a landslide elections last year the secular forces lost by only few votes in each electorate. This means that about forty five to leas than fifty percent of voters are opponents. The Turkish ruling party knows that if the army took power the EU opposition would be limited to the media. Even if economic sanctions are imposed it would not affect the country. Previously economic sanctions were imposed on Pakistan however the West was in alliance with Purviz Mesharaf due to geopolitical factors. Even after the Iranian revolution both Israel and the US smuggled weapons to the Iranian regime to keep the war as long as they can. It is doubtful that Turkey will not take a hostile stance against Iran if the later developed a nuclear weapon. Yet democracy to some extent should be present in Turkey as one of its main functions is to represent a formula between moderate Islam and the secular state for the Islamic World. That is why military coups usually end after a transitional phase that prepares for controlled elections.
Therefore, given the internal and the geopolitical factors, the Turkish government uses tactic maneuvers to empower its position in membership negotiations. At the same time distancing the nation from Israel serves the global role. No capital in the West commented with hostility on the visit of the Turkish president to Tehran. There are some circles that may constitute mutual benefits for both Arabs and Turkey. But first the Arabs should define precisely their role in the world and in the global strategies.
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