Facts from Waziristan to Islamabad and Back
Why did the militants turn against their mentors is clear: once they were powerful and unified, they wanted to establish their own writ. More importantly, several militant groups of Punjabi origin who were trained and brainwashed to fight in Kashmir could not tolerate the humiliation when their organization was dissolved and they were banned by the Pakistani state in a bid to improve relations with India. Later on, these groups shifted their activities to Waziristan and other tribal areas, and besides training and supporting the Afghan insurgents, encouraged the Pakistani Taliban to revolt against the state and the government. They did, and were able to challenge and shake the foundations of the Pakistani state.
To prove its ability of establishing its writ and showing the world that it is committed in the war against terror, the government of Pakistan launched several military operations against the militants who were hostile to Pakistan. Yet, elements inside the army and the ISI remained loyal to them. They reportedly continued to train and finance the Taliban and other extremist groups in the region. In December 2008, a Pakistani army officer told media that all the militant groups, including Baitullah Mehsud and Mulla Fazlullah, were ´patriot Pakistanis.´ In response, some militant leaders announced that they will send suicide bombers to target Indian cities. This, political analysts think, resulted into Pakistan forcing the international community to interfere and stop India from attacking Pakistan. India was widely supposed to be preparing for launching an attack on Pakistan, or at least to target terrorists inside Pakistan, after the November 27 attacks that killed nearly 200 people, including a high number of foreigners, and terrorized the whole nuclear-armed, largest South Asian country.
Just few days before the Waziristan operation, on Oct. 13, the new Pakistani Taliban leader, Hakimullah Mehsud, in an interview with a British newspaper, expressed the same views. He said that, ´he would send his soldiers to the Indian border to fight once Pakistan had been turned into an Islamic state.´ This is what the Pakistan army would love, but not the civilian government of President Asif Ali Zardari. Hence, the army still seems to be sympathetic to the terrorists in Waziristan. ´There is no government presence in South Waziristan. [The government] should first come to the area and identify who are terrorists and who are not. After that, it should make a plan and then launch operations. In the current military operation, most of the damage is inflicted on innocent civilians,´ said another person from the South Waziristan interviewed by BBC Urdu. Yet, the Pakistan army´s claims of successes against terrorists are much different: it has claimed to have killed more than 100 terrorists so far. But reporters are not allowed in the area, so there is no independent source to verify this information.
As a result, people think that, the ongoing Waziristan operation, though important, is not going to be decisive against the terrorist networks. However, it may change policies, or even the political situation, in Islamabad. Pakistani army and intelligence services are already ´furious at the observations made on Pakistan´s security establishment in the Kerry-Lugar bill´ that provides $ 7.5 million in aid to Pakistan for 5 years. The Bill was initially welcomed by the political leadership, but the army forced President Zardari to ask the US to change the ´insulting language´ about the army and the ISI. The Taliban leader´s offer to the army of ´stop attacking us and we will stop attacking you´ and the increasing militant attacks on military targets which have put the whole country into an emergency state may again bring both the forces to a tacit agreement which will not be acceptable to the political leadership and the United States. The outcome will be an aggravation in tension between the government and the army that, as a result, may turn things upside down in Islamabad. The recent reports of differences between the Pakistan Peoples Party´s leadership and the army, the rumors of a military coup in Pakistan, and the statement by Indian officials of being ready to fight against the Taliban strongly support this argument.

