The US Revises Strategies.
Ahmed Hany
October 28, 2009
The US revises its strategy in Afghanistan. Does this need revision of the global strategy or the new Afghanistan strategy will just be integrated within the global one? This makes one asks about the flexibility of the American global strategy and its ability to contain new changes.
In fact after the fall of the ex-Soviet Union, the British ex-Premier Margaret Thatcher principal of considering Islam the enemy to keep the West united until China poses the greatest threat was suggested. This principal called for reconciliation with Islamic World after preparing it to accept the Western values to build an alliance capable of confronting China. The success of George Bush the father to gather the European and the Arabic and Islamic countries under his leadership to liberate the Kuwait boosted the strategy of the Pax-Americana.
What went wrong were the advancement in Central Asia without defining an applicable aim and without planning for the flexibility needed for military tactics. When to end the war in Afghanistan and later on in Iraq were the other grave mistakes. These mistakes came from the deviation of George Bush the son and the Neo Cons from the main strategy of controlling the energy to serve Pax-Americana to creative chaos theory as Neo-Cons planners thought that disintegrating the region from Iraq to Pakistan will positively affect the ability of local allies to take power. This did not happen and the excessive force used by the Americans just helped terrorist groups to recruit new fighters.
The absence of clear achievable development plans for the Middle East and Central Asia with the double standard policies along with the use of democracy as an aim to press on governments not as a tool for good governance made governments at odds with the great power. Losing people by excessive killings and torture and losing governments by spreading chaos through the American request for sudden not gradual democratization made all not interested in American victory neither in Iraq nor in Afghanistan.
The Western prediction that China will be an international player by the year 2050 was another mistake and the yellow giant became an international player that did not threat the West in its markets only but in Africa also where resources are present. Russia overcame its financial trouble and the discoveries of oil and gas made it one of the forces that control energy for Europe. The BRIC group Brazil, Russia, India and China had a higher voice. They now ask for replacement dollar by another currency and while China became a great investor in Africa the Russian army returned to Latin America.
Obama Administration inherited the deteriorating strategic situation in military field with the recession that threats the ability to supply the combating forces. The internal pressure by lobbies especially the Zionist one made it difficult for his external policy to take the proper steps needed to reform alliances with regional forces. It took about a year for President Obama to freeze the anti-missile missiles in Europe to open the door for better Russian relations. Until now the greatest power cannot force Israel to freeze settlement projects to create favorable conditions for negotiations. Its pressure on the Palestinian President Mahmood Abbas to postpone discussing Gordonīs report about war crimes in Gaza just harmed its ally among the Palestinian factions and made people remember double standard policies that harmed the American interests.
However the US still has the greatest military power and economy. Its allies in Europe and the Middle East are willing to cooperate with it. Still the US holds ninety nine percent of cards to solve the Palestinian problem but non-solving it will just accelerate the cooperation between the emerging forces and the Middle East countries while the Americans lost their ability to impose solutions militarily in Iraq and Afghanistan.
To build another strategy for Afghanistan the US needs its allies in the Middle East. It also needs Russia to use its air fields to supply forces in Afghanistan. It needs cooperation from the Pakistani army to limit the presence of Taliban in border region. It needs the European to continue fighting there. It needs political channels with Taliban to disengage them from Al-Qaeda. It needs the change of the quality of combating forces to enable them to fight in mountains and to control them. It needs maximum control over nuclear spread in the Middle East. To achieve this target it should address the nuclear files in region and to encourage the peaceful purposes while addressing both the Israeli and Iranian nuclear files. The Americans fight their empire existence war in Afghanistan. If they won it they could continue in their Pax-Americana strategy. If the Americans withdrew defeated they would have no choice but accepting multilateral international global system. In this multilateral system countries may be in alliance for one target while the same countries may competitors in other fields.
The good news for the Americans is that Afghanistan neighbors do not want the Americans to withdraw before creating stability not to send their own forces to fight there. The bad news is that historically Afghanistan proved to be a hard rock for empires.
However, solving the Middle Problems in general pass through Jerusalem. Could Obama take the proper decisions within the frame of all these constraints and to achieve a real reconciliation with the Islamic World? He became a Nobel Prize Winner because he said that. Now it is time to decide.
In fact after the fall of the ex-Soviet Union, the British ex-Premier Margaret Thatcher principal of considering Islam the enemy to keep the West united until China poses the greatest threat was suggested. This principal called for reconciliation with Islamic World after preparing it to accept the Western values to build an alliance capable of confronting China. The success of George Bush the father to gather the European and the Arabic and Islamic countries under his leadership to liberate the Kuwait boosted the strategy of the Pax-Americana.
What went wrong were the advancement in Central Asia without defining an applicable aim and without planning for the flexibility needed for military tactics. When to end the war in Afghanistan and later on in Iraq were the other grave mistakes. These mistakes came from the deviation of George Bush the son and the Neo Cons from the main strategy of controlling the energy to serve Pax-Americana to creative chaos theory as Neo-Cons planners thought that disintegrating the region from Iraq to Pakistan will positively affect the ability of local allies to take power. This did not happen and the excessive force used by the Americans just helped terrorist groups to recruit new fighters.
The absence of clear achievable development plans for the Middle East and Central Asia with the double standard policies along with the use of democracy as an aim to press on governments not as a tool for good governance made governments at odds with the great power. Losing people by excessive killings and torture and losing governments by spreading chaos through the American request for sudden not gradual democratization made all not interested in American victory neither in Iraq nor in Afghanistan.
The Western prediction that China will be an international player by the year 2050 was another mistake and the yellow giant became an international player that did not threat the West in its markets only but in Africa also where resources are present. Russia overcame its financial trouble and the discoveries of oil and gas made it one of the forces that control energy for Europe. The BRIC group Brazil, Russia, India and China had a higher voice. They now ask for replacement dollar by another currency and while China became a great investor in Africa the Russian army returned to Latin America.
Obama Administration inherited the deteriorating strategic situation in military field with the recession that threats the ability to supply the combating forces. The internal pressure by lobbies especially the Zionist one made it difficult for his external policy to take the proper steps needed to reform alliances with regional forces. It took about a year for President Obama to freeze the anti-missile missiles in Europe to open the door for better Russian relations. Until now the greatest power cannot force Israel to freeze settlement projects to create favorable conditions for negotiations. Its pressure on the Palestinian President Mahmood Abbas to postpone discussing Gordonīs report about war crimes in Gaza just harmed its ally among the Palestinian factions and made people remember double standard policies that harmed the American interests.
However the US still has the greatest military power and economy. Its allies in Europe and the Middle East are willing to cooperate with it. Still the US holds ninety nine percent of cards to solve the Palestinian problem but non-solving it will just accelerate the cooperation between the emerging forces and the Middle East countries while the Americans lost their ability to impose solutions militarily in Iraq and Afghanistan.
To build another strategy for Afghanistan the US needs its allies in the Middle East. It also needs Russia to use its air fields to supply forces in Afghanistan. It needs cooperation from the Pakistani army to limit the presence of Taliban in border region. It needs the European to continue fighting there. It needs political channels with Taliban to disengage them from Al-Qaeda. It needs the change of the quality of combating forces to enable them to fight in mountains and to control them. It needs maximum control over nuclear spread in the Middle East. To achieve this target it should address the nuclear files in region and to encourage the peaceful purposes while addressing both the Israeli and Iranian nuclear files. The Americans fight their empire existence war in Afghanistan. If they won it they could continue in their Pax-Americana strategy. If the Americans withdrew defeated they would have no choice but accepting multilateral international global system. In this multilateral system countries may be in alliance for one target while the same countries may competitors in other fields.
The good news for the Americans is that Afghanistan neighbors do not want the Americans to withdraw before creating stability not to send their own forces to fight there. The bad news is that historically Afghanistan proved to be a hard rock for empires.
However, solving the Middle Problems in general pass through Jerusalem. Could Obama take the proper decisions within the frame of all these constraints and to achieve a real reconciliation with the Islamic World? He became a Nobel Prize Winner because he said that. Now it is time to decide.
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