Adapting to Climate Change: ICRISAT Policy Recommendations for the Developing World

By the International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics, September 2009

The vulnerability of developing countries

While economic growth and development are priorities in all countries, the needs in developing and least-developed countries are on a different scale altogether from those in the developed world. Developing countries are constrained by their particular vulnerability to the impacts of climate variability. The poor in these countries are also at higher risks to both current and future climate-change impacts, given their high dependence on agriculture, strong reliance on ecosystem services, rapid growth and concentration of human and livestock populations and relatively poor health services. In fact, about 99% of the casualties due to the vagaries of climate take place in the developing world. As a result of global warming, the type, frequency and intensity of extreme events, such as tropical cyclones, floods, droughts and heavy precipitation events are expected to rise even with relatively small, average temperature increases. New climate studies project that extreme heat waves are very likely to become common in the tropics and subtropics by century´s end. Add to this gloomy scenario the insufficient capacity to adapt to future climate change impacts, inadequate infrastructure, meager household income and savings, and the limited supporting public services, and you have a veritable time bomb in the offing.

Climate change goes against the grain

Climate change is already inevitable, but in the absence of robust adaptation strategies, it will almost certainly exacerbate food insecurity. Millions of people in countries that already have food security problems will have to give up traditional crops and agricultural methods as they experience changes in the nature of the seasons, for which, over time, they have developed coping strategies that have enabled them to survive. Given the fact that two billion people already live in the driest parts of the globe, where climate change is projected to reduce yields even further, the challenge of putting enough food in nine billion mouths by 2050 is daunting!

And what does it imply for about 1.5 billion people, nearly 60% of developing nations´ workforce, who are engaged in agriculture? Since agriculture constitutes a much larger fraction of GDP in developing countries, even a small percentage of loss in agricultural productivity could snowball into a larger proportionate income loss in a developing country than in an industrial one.

Climate change also threatens poverty reduction efforts because poor people depend directly on already fragile ecosystems for their well-being. They also lack the resources to adequately defend themselves or to adapt rapidly to changing circumstances, and more importantly, their voices are not sufficiently heard in international discussions, particularly in climate change negotiations. Environmental effects such as desertification and rising sea levels triggered by climate change can lead to increased conflicts for resources, which in turn can displace people. The World Bank estimates that sea level rising by a single meter would displace 56 million people in 84 developing countries!

Food insecurity is a gnawing concern among smallholders and the poor in developing countries. Unhindered climate change has the potential to negatively impact developing countries´ prospects for sustainable development. As the rural poor across the developing world feel the pressure of climate change, high food prices and environmental and energy crises, it is now clear that new knowledge and technical and policy solutions have never been more necessary – and critical.

Technical solutions

Climate change being a threat multiplier, adaptation and mitigation strategies need to be urgently integrated into national and regional development programs. Developing countries need to participate in a globally integrated approach to this problem. Policies on adaptation include changes in land use and timing of farming operations, adaptive plant breeding and crop husbandry technologies, irrigation infrastructure, water storage and water management. Mitigation measures may include better forecasting tools and early warning systems, improved crop and livestock management practices including improved input use efficiencies (such as ICRISAT´s microdosing), crop systems diversification and improved water management.

Policy solutions

More investments in agricultural research and infrastructure

Considering the role of agriculture in the social and economic progress of developing countries, and the vulnerability of agricultural systems to the impacts of climate change, a renewed agenda for agricultural research, more aggressive investments in and better management of agricultural research and knowledge can make significant improvements in food security goals. A progressive policy environment should also include more investment in infrastructure and education and research that improves understanding and predictions of the interactions between climate change and agriculture.

Water management

Almost 95% of the developing countries´ water withdrawals are used to irrigate farmlands. Therefore, water policy to make more efficient use of water for agriculture is crucial. This involves understanding water flows and water quality, improved rainwater harvesting and water storage and diversification of irrigation techniques. Such considerations will need to be framed in the context of rapidly expanding populations that are predicted to exacerbate inter-sectoral competition for abstracted water supplies. Robust irrigation infrastructure may be necessary to cope with climate change risks in the short to medium term. Maintenance of existing infrastructure too deserves early attention.

Land use practices

Land-use policies to encourage diversification and natural resource management, including protection of biodiversity, are critical. Erosion control and soil conservation measures, agroforestry and forestry techniques, forest fire management and better town planning are some steps that can be initiated to blunt the impacts of climate change. Reducing and sequestering terrestrial greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are possible by enriching soil carbon, farming with perennials, engaging in climate-friendly livestock production, protecting natural habitat and restoring degraded watersheds and rangelands.

Weather and climate services

The role of weather and climate services and products in developing adaptation solutions is crucial. Stock-taking of available climate information in developing countries to ascertain where the systematic observation needs are most pressing; collaboration between national and international providers of climate information and users in all sectors and generating awareness among different user communities of the usefulness of such information are essential. Climate-change assessment tools are needed that are more geographically precise, that are more useful for agricultural policy and program review and scenario assessment, and that are more explicitly incorporate the biophysical constraints that affect agricultural productivity. Packaging all that data for its effective use and rescuing historical meteorological data are equally important. In this respect, the National Meteorological Services in the developing world must be encouraged and enabled to become fully integrated into research and development initiatives.

Engagement of the private sector

Policies that encourage holistic approaches including the engagement of the private sector should feature in any national and international approaches to address climate change and facilitate the transition to a low-carbon economy. The private sector can invest in clean new technologies and develop innovative market mechanisms to combat climate change, particularly the dangers from GHG emissions.

Capacity-building and collective action

Policies that enhance the effectiveness of rural institutions at the local, national and international levels will be a central concern as they seek to speed up the pace of agricultural adaptation. Unless steps are taken to initiate and strengthen cooperation among academic and research institutions, regional and international organizations, and NGOs to provide opportunities for strengthening institutions, dealing with climate change impacts may be cumbersome. Involving local communities, education on climate change and raising public awareness are key to combating climate change.

Economic diversification

Economic diversification to increase the economic resilience of and to reduce reliance on vulnerable resources is crucial. Reducing dependence on climate-sensitive resources is an important adaptation strategy that must be promoted. Improved food security through crop diversification, developing local food banks for people and livestock, and improving local food preservation need to be encouraged.

Database of adaptation options

Given the diversity of agro-ecological zones and their inherent problems, it is also essential to assemble, document and disseminate a comprehensive and action-oriented database of adaptation options of different farming and livelihood systems and agro-ecological zones.

Access to credit and crop insurance

Since farmers are often constrained by access to credit, policies that enable better access to credit (micro-finance) and agricultural inputs in order to intensify integrated production systems need attention. Catastrophic or weather-risk insurance and index insurance (insurance linked to a particular index such as rainfall, humidity, or crop yields rather than actual loss), can be used as new climate risk management tools in developing countries.

Gender diversity

While underscoring the vulnerability of poor women to climate change, policies that cater to the rural poor and recognize the important role of women in agricultural production should be acknowledged. By virtue of the valuable knowledge in water, forest and biodiversity management that women have acquired over the years, and their important role in supporting households and communities to mitigate and adapt to climate change, their contribution to the identification of appropriate adaptation and disaster mitigation processes could be very useful. Women´s environmental resources, knowledge and practices can be key elements in climate change processes.

Contributing to value chains

Policies that contribute to value chains in the agricultural sector and smallholder farmer participation in these value chains are fundamental to efforts to deal with climate change.

The CET opportunity

The emerging market for carbon emissions trading (CET) offers new opportunities for farmers to benefit from land uses that sequester carbon. Policies that encourage and enhance participation in carbon emission trading schemes must be put in place.

ICRISAT´s role

The International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics (ICRISAT) serves the poor of the semi-arid tropics in Asia and sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). It recognizes that vulnerable rural communities need to adapt to climate change, beginning with enhancing their ability to cope better with the rainfall variability associated with current climates.

To help farmers in sub-Saharan Africa cope better with climate variability, ICRISAT currently facilitates a NEPAD-endorsed consortium for 15 national, regional and international partners titled 'Investing in rainfed farming systems of sub-Saharan Africa: Evaluating the agricultural implications of current climatic variability and planning for future climate change.' ICRISAT is currently partnering with meteorological services, CGIAR centers and climate science specialists in several projects pertaining to climate risk management in Asia and Africa. There are currently 10 such projects taking place in SSA. Equally Climate-ready chickpea cultivars that escape terminal drought.

ICRISAT has developed and continues to develop tools and technologies enabling the resource poor to improve livelihoods. It uses sophisticated techniques of predicting and forecasting the monsoons in the context of climate change; enables collective action and rural institutions for agriculture and natural resource management; upscales and outscales its community watershed management model; rehabilitates degraded lands and diversifies livelihood systems for landless and vulnerable groups and initiates government support for water saving options.

Climate-ready crops

ICRISAT already has on hand crops that are adapted to high soil and air temperatures; knowledge and understanding of flowering maturities; information on genetic variation for water use efficiency; short duration varieties that escape terminal drought and high-yielding and disease-resistant varieties. For instance, we have developed short-duration chickpea cultivars ICCV 2 (Shweta), ICCC 37 (Kranti) and KAK 2 and short-duration groundnut cultivar ICGV 91114 that escape terminal drought. We recently developed a super-early pigeon pea line that flowers in 32 days and matures in about 65-70 days. We have integrated shrubs and trees into traditional annual cropping systems to help reduce the impacts of winds and to protect soils from erosion.

ICRISAT has developed crop varieties that resist pests and pathogens such as downy mildew-resistant pearl millet hybrid HHB 67-Improved in India; wilt-resistant, high-yielding pigeon pea ICEAP 00040 in Tanzania, Malawi and Mozambique and rosette-resistant groundnuts in Uganda, to name a few.

Guiding our crop adaptation work are tools such as INSTAT and GENSTAT, MARKSIM and APSIM/DSAT that analyze climate data and produce high-quality information and products tailored for agricultural applications and to quantify the relationships between climate, crop, soil and water resources.

Since ICRISAT´s mandate crops are already more adapted to heat and high soil temperatures, our breeding strategy factors these harsh and dry conditions while developing improved varieties. What we need to better understand is the physiological mechanism underlying heat tolerance; we also need to identify wider gene pools to develop crops with wider adaptability; and develop more effective screening techniques of germplasm for desired traits. ICRISAT´s gene bank holds more than 119,000 accessions from 144 countries that will help safeguard and exploit genetic diversity in order to enhance adaptation.

Biofuel production

ICRISAT is also responding to the challenges by exploiting the potential of ´pro-poor´ opportunities for biofuel production. Its BioPower initiative encourages more investments in bio-energy crops and systems to provide a major impetus for sustainable development; empowering the dryland poor to benefit rather than be marginalized, so that farmers can better cope with stresses, climate change or otherwise. The current activities include developing higher-yielding sweet sorghum varieties for food, fuel, feed and fodder; pilot-scaling pro-poor commercial startup company partnerships in sweet sorghum bioethanol production and research-to-development alliances for pro-poor Jatropha plantation development for biodiesel.

To summarize, if developing countries are to contribute meaningfully to efforts toward adaptation and mitigation of climate change impacts, they will need the strengthened capacity that comes with development. A conducive and comprehensive policy environment that enhances opportunities for smallholders given the climate change scenario, needs to encompass all levels – farm, basin, regional, national and global. It must include adaptation and mitigation strategies, more investment in agricultural research and extension, rural infrastructure, and access to markets for small farmers, among other things. The bottom line is to ensure that they develop resilient ecosystems, resilient crops, resilient livestock and resilient communities. – With editing by Frank A Hilario