Implications of a Referendum
Risto Stefov
July 24, 2009
A referendum is an expression of an individual´s ultimate democratic right of choice for deciding issues. But a referendum should never be invoked to solve a problem that has the potential of causing more harm than good.
"Will the Macedonian people, who feel and declare themselves Macedonian, be satisfied if their country´s name is changed?"
"Will Greece be satisfied if the Macedonian people choose to keep the name the way it is, ´unchanged´?"
If the answer to either question is "no" then how will a referendum solve the problem which Greece has "externally" imposed on the Macedonian people?
In finding a "solution" to the name problem, the Gruevski Government has, on several occasions, suggested that a referendum may be invoked to "accept or reject" any "option recommended for a name change".
Given the implications of such a commitment, is a referendum necessarily the best option to solving this problem?
Before even recommending such an option, a number of pertinent questions must be answered!
1. Will Greece accept the results of a referendum if the Macedonian people vote to keep their name the way it is?
If Greece cannot accept the Macedonian people´s will then what would be the point of conducting such a referendum?
2. Will the Macedonian people accept the results of a referendum if the vote is to change the name?
If a segment of the Macedonian population is not ready to accept a name change, which has the potential of destabilizing the country and, in the worst scenario, sparking a civil war, then what would be the purpose of conducting such a referendum? Is the Macedonian Government prepared to deal with a "name change" if it means having to arrest and jail all those patriotic Macedonians who will fight for the right to preserve their identity? And will the Macedonian government be doing this to placate Greece; the very country which claims Macedonians don´t exist?
3. Who will vote in this referendum?
There are several options, each with its own unique problems.
(a) All citizens of Macedonia living inside the Republic of Macedonia including non-Macedonians get to vote.
This option is easy to implement but has a potential of creating new problems as follows;
(i) Not allowing the vast majority of Macedonians living outside the Republic of Macedonia to participate, at best, will cause resentment between Macedonians and at worst, especially if the name is changed, will cause a great division between the Macedonian people in the Republic and those outside. This will not be good for the Macedonian people and will only serve our enemies who wish to further divide us.
(ii) Allowing non-Macedonians to make decisions on Macedonia´s identity will cause resentment.
(b) Only Macedonian citizens who "feel" Macedonian and who live inside the Republic of Macedonia get to vote.
This option is fair to the Macedonians but discriminates against other citizens and puts the non-ethnic Macedonians at a disadvantage!
(c) All Macedonians worldwide including those living inside Greece, Bulgaria, Albania, the USA, Canada, Australia, etc. get a chance to vote in the referendum.
This option will be difficult if not impossible to implement and will produce biased results because everyone who claims to be from Macedonia, including non-Macedonians, will get to vote.
(d) All Macedonians worldwide who "feel" Macedonian including those living inside Greece, Bulgaria, Albania, the USA, Canada, Australia, etc. get to vote in the referendum.
This option too is difficult if not impossible to implement and will also produce biased results because every person (Grkoman and Bulgaroman) who considers him or her self Macedonian but supports Greek or Bulgarian interests will also get to vote in the referendum.
4. What percentage of the people are expected to vote to declare the referendum valid? 50%, 60%, 100%?
If not very close to 100% then how valid is a referendum?
5. What percentage determines a win? 51%, 60%, 75%, 80%?
If the result considered "a win" in this scenario is not more than 80%, a referendum will have destabilizing effects. In other words more than 80% of the people must say "yes" to a "name change" in order for the change to be valid which puts the ratio 80 for change and 20 against. A 51% for example will divide the people into two equally opposing forces and will certainly create potential for destabilization which could result in a civil war.
Even a limited analysis, such as this, shows that a referendum is not a good choice for solving this problem. Why then go through the effort of conducting such a referendum and exposing Macedonia and the Macedonian people to unwarranted dangers that have a potential of doing more harm than good? Why do all this just to placate Greece; a country whose only aim to date has been to destroy the Macedonian identity?
And if Greece gets its wish to have Macedonia´s name changed then what comes next?
The best path for the Macedonian Government to take at this time, in order to avoid problems in the future, is to pull out of the "name talks". Macedonia has nothing to gain and everything to lose by continuing these talks. If Macedonia intends to "give in", even a little now, it will have to "give in" a lot more in the future because Greece will not stop until the Macedonian identity is completely destroyed.
"Will the Macedonian people, who feel and declare themselves Macedonian, be satisfied if their country´s name is changed?"
"Will Greece be satisfied if the Macedonian people choose to keep the name the way it is, ´unchanged´?"
If the answer to either question is "no" then how will a referendum solve the problem which Greece has "externally" imposed on the Macedonian people?
In finding a "solution" to the name problem, the Gruevski Government has, on several occasions, suggested that a referendum may be invoked to "accept or reject" any "option recommended for a name change".
Given the implications of such a commitment, is a referendum necessarily the best option to solving this problem?
Before even recommending such an option, a number of pertinent questions must be answered!
1. Will Greece accept the results of a referendum if the Macedonian people vote to keep their name the way it is?
If Greece cannot accept the Macedonian people´s will then what would be the point of conducting such a referendum?
2. Will the Macedonian people accept the results of a referendum if the vote is to change the name?
If a segment of the Macedonian population is not ready to accept a name change, which has the potential of destabilizing the country and, in the worst scenario, sparking a civil war, then what would be the purpose of conducting such a referendum? Is the Macedonian Government prepared to deal with a "name change" if it means having to arrest and jail all those patriotic Macedonians who will fight for the right to preserve their identity? And will the Macedonian government be doing this to placate Greece; the very country which claims Macedonians don´t exist?
3. Who will vote in this referendum?
There are several options, each with its own unique problems.
(a) All citizens of Macedonia living inside the Republic of Macedonia including non-Macedonians get to vote.
This option is easy to implement but has a potential of creating new problems as follows;
(i) Not allowing the vast majority of Macedonians living outside the Republic of Macedonia to participate, at best, will cause resentment between Macedonians and at worst, especially if the name is changed, will cause a great division between the Macedonian people in the Republic and those outside. This will not be good for the Macedonian people and will only serve our enemies who wish to further divide us.
(ii) Allowing non-Macedonians to make decisions on Macedonia´s identity will cause resentment.
(b) Only Macedonian citizens who "feel" Macedonian and who live inside the Republic of Macedonia get to vote.
This option is fair to the Macedonians but discriminates against other citizens and puts the non-ethnic Macedonians at a disadvantage!
(c) All Macedonians worldwide including those living inside Greece, Bulgaria, Albania, the USA, Canada, Australia, etc. get a chance to vote in the referendum.
This option will be difficult if not impossible to implement and will produce biased results because everyone who claims to be from Macedonia, including non-Macedonians, will get to vote.
(d) All Macedonians worldwide who "feel" Macedonian including those living inside Greece, Bulgaria, Albania, the USA, Canada, Australia, etc. get to vote in the referendum.
This option too is difficult if not impossible to implement and will also produce biased results because every person (Grkoman and Bulgaroman) who considers him or her self Macedonian but supports Greek or Bulgarian interests will also get to vote in the referendum.
4. What percentage of the people are expected to vote to declare the referendum valid? 50%, 60%, 100%?
If not very close to 100% then how valid is a referendum?
5. What percentage determines a win? 51%, 60%, 75%, 80%?
If the result considered "a win" in this scenario is not more than 80%, a referendum will have destabilizing effects. In other words more than 80% of the people must say "yes" to a "name change" in order for the change to be valid which puts the ratio 80 for change and 20 against. A 51% for example will divide the people into two equally opposing forces and will certainly create potential for destabilization which could result in a civil war.
Even a limited analysis, such as this, shows that a referendum is not a good choice for solving this problem. Why then go through the effort of conducting such a referendum and exposing Macedonia and the Macedonian people to unwarranted dangers that have a potential of doing more harm than good? Why do all this just to placate Greece; a country whose only aim to date has been to destroy the Macedonian identity?
And if Greece gets its wish to have Macedonia´s name changed then what comes next?
The best path for the Macedonian Government to take at this time, in order to avoid problems in the future, is to pull out of the "name talks". Macedonia has nothing to gain and everything to lose by continuing these talks. If Macedonia intends to "give in", even a little now, it will have to "give in" a lot more in the future because Greece will not stop until the Macedonian identity is completely destroyed.
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