Castor Beans and Natalee’s Case

Recently there was a television program about a doctor who was poisoned by his wife using castor beans, which contain the poison ricin. The story revealed the doctor had returned from the tropics and was suspected of contracting some disease from his visit. He was placed in the hospital and several tests were run, but there was no definitive diagnosis. As he improved in the hospital he returned home and soon became violently ill with the same symptoms he had experienced previously. The doctors working on the case assumed he was allergic to wheat gluten and prescribed a strict diet to exclude wheat from his diet. Again he returned to the hospital in pain and finding he had tried to test their hypothesis concluded the allergy theory was the most probable cause of his illness.

Watching this program I saw a lot of similarities with the assumptions the doctors were using and the ones the investigators in the Natalee Holloway case maintained. The doctors ( including the doctor patient ) refused to believe the doctor’s wife could have anything to do with the illness. Although they knew it was very unusual for an allergy to begin so suddenly and they knew their theory of an allergy to wheat gluten could be easily tested ( but wasn’t ), they persisted in pursuing the search for an unknown bacillus or virus. They even diagnosed the problem once as Typhoid Fever but had to finally discard this diagnosis as inconsistent with his return to the hospital after treatment.

The doctor then got suspicious of his wife ( who he was in the process of divorcing ) and looking in one of her dresser drawers found a couple of packets of castor beans. When he was tested for ricin and found his blood contained some of the poison the mystery was solved. But the assumption of the wife’s innocence prevented it from being solved sooner. Once that assumption was questioned- the solution was easily determined for it was possible then to formulate a probable cause that explained why he was sick at home and not at the hospital, Why the symptoms had an rapid onset, why the misdiagnosed typhoid fever symptoms returned and finally why nothing they had theorized previously explained the mystery.

Like the doctor’s case, false assumptions are leading nowhere in the Natalee Holloway disappearance. The doctor and the other physicians on the case didn’t want to consider the wife may have been involved. Consequently they came up with theories that left gaps in their formulation of a most probable cause. Not everything could be made to fit under the false assumptions they used. Likewise not everything can be made to fit in the Natalee Holloway case using the assumptions that have so far been promoted. It doesn’t fit that teen age boys could kill a girl and not leave a trace of evidence. It doesn’t fit that a girl could disappear on a small island under her own power. It doesn’t fit that many “suspects” have been “arrested” and released. Unless you assume there might be some form of collusion by some authorities.

This assumption ( like the doctor’s presumed innocence of his wife ) prevents any investigation into those supposedly doing their best to find Natalee. When the doctor confronted his wife she cracked under the overwhelming evidence she had to admit and couldn’t explain. What do you suppose would happen if the investigation into Natalee’s disappearance raised similar concerns about the unexplained arrests and releases, the bizarre theories that contradicted known facts( like the “passed out” theory based on no known evidence )? What would be the response to an internal investigation similar to appointing a special prosecutor independent of Aruban interests?

Think about how many times you have assumed something to be wrong and found that your assumption prevented you from finding the solution to the problem. How many of us have called the TV repairman only to find we had assumed the plug was in the outlet? Or we assumed our gas gauge was correct and ran out of gas. Or we assumed we had turned off all the lights and find we had left one on? False assumptions keep us from finding the truth. They limit our investigation and create barriers to inquiry that may very well lead us to the solution we seek.

The number one cause of mistaken solutions to problems according the problem solving guru’s , Kepner Tregoe, is ‘ jumping to cause’. This is another way of saying, “Don’t assume you know what caused the disappearance of Natalee”.

By the same token when no results have been discovered with the methods you have utilized, it is time to review what you have not yet investigated and see if you cannot formulate a theory that includes this new approach. Otherwise you are left with resignation and failure.