Woeful Box Office miseries turning around in 2005?

2005 was the first year since 1991 that the year's total domestic box office gross was less than the year preceding it. Last year saw a drop of 6.2 percent over 2004.

The number isn't entirely revealing though, because ticket sales are the real pulse behind the box office heart-rate, and statistics show that (as the price of movie tickets have increased by about 20 cents a year in the last decade) 12.8% less tickets have been bought since 2002. Now that is an alarming drop-off, especially when you consider that 2005 brought 544 movies to the big screen, the second most all time (after 2004, which was the all-time highest grossing year at the box office).

2005 at the movies was a real shake-up for the film industry. Film Studios hired analysts to try and figure out where the breakdown was occurring; why all of a sudden were nearly 9% less tickets being sold than the year before? Sure, the ticket prices that year had jumped 19 cents to $6.40, but 2004 had seen an 18 cent increase from the year before, and it hadn't hurt that year's overall gross. Had it? In reality, 2004's powerful movie line-up had merely disguised the box office's dire straits. Huge blockbuster money-grabbers like Spider-Man 2, The Passion of the Christ, Shrek 2, and The Incredibles had effectively hidden the fact that—actually—less people were buying tickets to the local theater.

But why?

You ask pundits like Michael Medved and he'll blame it on the liberals; in Medved's case: Michael Moore and the whole Democrat agenda that was pushing for Kerry in '04. I'm sorry, but I don't see how Michael more or even the Democratic party could single-handedly destroy a decades-old industry that has traditionally been a staple-mark of culture as a whole.

Most media analysts have been a little less politically-biased in their opinions about this; citing several instigators of box office slumps: rising prices, poor movie fare, piracy, Hollywood's political agenda, and competing amusements (aka: not everyone likes to spend their summer evenings stuffed in a dark room anymore!). I think those are more accurate reasons.

This year we have seen a concentrated effort to turn around the box office woes. Industry experts have gotten through to some of the big name studios, and it is showing. Already, this year's numbers are well ahead of last year's, with revenue up 4.65 percent and attendance up more than 1.5 percent...even as ticket prices blossomed to $6.80 (showing that, once again, high ticket prices don't always mean less tickets sold). And we’re just starting to get to a couple of this year’s movies which will be jostling for #1 at the domestic box office: Superman Returns (released June 28) and Pirates of the Caribbean 2: Dead Man's Chest (released July 7). M. Night Shyamalan's latest effort Lady in the Water is another July release that will generate a lot of buzz (as M Night's films always do), but only time will tell if it will show the same spirit that his previous supernatural thriller Signs did, and gross above 200 million.

We are seeing the beginnings of a concentrated effort to bring movie-goers back to the theaters, and--so far--it is working. 2006 has already broken several records, including the most lucrative opening weekend ever (X:3 The Last Stand shattered the previous record with 122.9 million over Memorial Day weekend), the biggest Tuesday debut ever (The Omen did it with over 12 and a half million), the biggest worldwide debut ever (Da Vinci Code with 152 million), and a few others. We’ve also been witness to the longevity of animation films, as Dreamworks’ latest Over the Hedge remained in a hotly contested top-ten for its first five weeks. Go back another month or so and there was Ice Age: The Meltdown, drawing huge audiences and raking in the 10th largest haul of any animation film—ever; 193 million dollars.

And even as films like Poseidon flopped, it was still to the tune of 57 million dollars, not a Stealth-like 20 million. And for every capsized thriller this year, there have been the surprises...like RV, The Break-Up, and 9/11’s first theatrical retelling: United 93. (We'll forget about Failure to Launch and Hoot for now!).

2006 is showing movie-goers that—even with the jacked up ticket prices—the film industry is realizing what grabs audiences more than anything else: quality films! Not cheap comedy rip-offs or Michael Bay stylized action "blips." And even when 2006 has forayed into this territory, the movies still haven't destroyed themselves. Mission Impossible 3, for example, flopped according to early predictions, but at well over 120 million dollars at the box office, it's no true-flop (more or less a King Kong flop, as we'll label this type of high end movie that does well, but doesn't live up to high expectations).

And even if they kicked back Narnia’s next offering Prince Caspian till the middle of 2008, I'll still take Eragon as this winter's snowy fantasy flick. And hey, look who's dominating at theaters right now! After Cars outran the competition for two straight weeks, the Break Up proved that Vince Vaughn is more than a wedding crasher. Oh…and that Jennifer Aniston is still a box office draw.

But now we’re in the heat of the summer film race, and Superman Returns has already taken 21 million from 4,065 theatres in its first day, despite a terrible review of it by Roger Ebert. Also, we have yet to see the return of Jack Sparrow. His resurgence on July 7—along with the roles played by Orlando Bloom and Keira Knightley—is sure to entice the most lucrative box office returns of any other domestic film in 2006.

Sam Van Eerden