Iran in Fogs
Ahmed Hany
July 08, 2009
The post-election riots in Iran showed that analysts did not have sound views about the internal power conflict in the Persian state. Most analysts did not predict that opposition leaders have the power to move thousands and to threat the regime. They also gave the presidential post more value than its real power. Pre-election analysis focused on the ability of reformers to change the political path if they won and whether the Superior Guide would allow that and the reflections on the nuclear file that was the center of most analysis.
Only one man knew that reformers would reduce his influence. This man was the Superior Guide Khemeini who congratulated the incumbent president before the interior minister declared the official result. Then the rulers who receive the real reports from specialized circles about people´s opinion knew the truth. Between the Western and Iranian media one would find it difficult to know the truth if he did not abide to facts. The only fact is the announcement of the Guardian Council (Council of Constitutional Maintenance) that three million votes were added to fifty out of three hundreds and sixty six electoral regions.
Simple calculations lead to a near fact conclusion which is about twenty million votes in all regions were added in to the incumbent president. This gives credibility to the British newspaper Independent photocopied report of the Iranian interior minister that was sent to the Superior Guide telling him that Mir Hussein Mousavi had about nineteen million votes and Ahmadinjad had about five and half millions votes. Despite the fact that the incumbent president is the Superior Guide´s man, the conservatives in Iran would use their interior minister´s report to make Ahmadinjad their ploy. Who leaked this report that it was supposed to be a top secret? Another question why did the Guardian Council tell people about the three million votes that were added to Ahmadinjad?
Until now there are no facts or answers to these two question but these questions lead to another question. Are the conservatives united or divided? When 105 out of 295 parliament members attend the victory ceremony Ahmadinjad should worry about what was happening. The conservative Ali Larijani, the Parliament Speaker and the ex-negotiator of the nuclear file whom Ahmadinjad sacked and chose a more hardliner one to replace him did not attend. Could the conservative Larijani do that against the will of the Superior Guide? Let´s not forget that one of the runners, Mohsen Redaee was another conservative and ex-command of the Revolutionary Guard. Would the Superior Guide and scholars plan to make Ahmadinjad a scapegoat after his unpopular economic policies during his first term? With the increasing popularity of reformers the regime needs a continuation strategy not an exit scenario.
The anti-corruption president who accepted fraud to keep the chair for a second term attacked Hashemi Rafsanjani the Head of the Consultative Council (Regime´s Interests Identification) accusing him of corruption. Rafsanjani is a reformist but a friend to the Superior Guide and manipulated the scholars after Khomeini´s death to choose Khemeini although others were more qualified for the post according to scholars´ parameters. Simply Ahmadinjad´s accusation fired back as he was the president, then why he gave a blind eye to corruption although he talked much about anticorruption measures until he ran for renewal of presidency.
The war between Ayat Allahs reached a critical level. Ayat Allah Shareaati said that religiously it is forbidden to stand against people´s will in a gesture to press for annulling election results. Simply Khemeini needs Rafsanjani´s support to win his battle against the popular and more qualified Shareaati. That is why the Superior Guide reprimanded his incumbent president and said that he refuses any accusation against Rafsanjani the reformist. Ayat Allahs in general worried that one exploded himself in late Khomeini´s mosque. This means that some groups want to change the system and they act not only against the president but also against the Superior Guide and his theocratic ideology.
Ex-president Khatami was a reformist. The Superior Guide did not interfere to make him lose the elections when he ran for his first term. Did the Superior Guide side with Ahmadinjad because both Mousavi and Karobi are from the minorities and not from the Persian race? This question should be answered convincingly after the elections were known to be fraudulent or the Persian race that constitutes about fifty to sixty percent of the population would be seen as a foreign force in minorities´ regions.
Before the elections the regime blocked the internet sites of reformist candidate Mousavi. When riots erupted youth used the new technology of mobile phones and blogging to tell the world about what was going on. Another question is as the regime blocked the sites before the elections and even isolated connections the day the riots erupted, then why did it allow phone connections to return while fights between the Beiseij militias and rioters were day and night and fires of some governmental buildings and mosques happened?
The Beiseij forces wear civilian dress and they were responsible about beating people, injuring hundreds and killing fifteen persons. In other words the Beiseij is the hooligan arm of the Revolutionary Guard and when Iranian citizens see their country in chaos by persons that could not be identified as Mousavi´s supporters or the Beiseij they would condemn both groups.
In fact the Beiseij is one of the staunch forces that would side with Ahmadinjad against reconciliation with the West and the US. The prediction in Iran is that reform would happen but the regime needs to adjust the tempo not to have the Soviet scenario that led to disintegration of the country. The Superior Guide should get rid of Ahmadinjad and his group and to dissolve the Beiseij forces to adjust the reform that his closest friend Rafsanjani supports and to talk with the US. News told that the Superior Guide received a letter from President Obama before the elections. Of course the Superior Guide and other top persons in the regime do not want the non Persian candidate.
The Superior Guide may plan for conditions that open the door for the conservative Mohsen Redaee who played his role and obeyed the Superior Guide and withdrew his complaint about the elections in some sort of corrective movement as a cornerstone of a continuation strategy. Redaee is an army general and knows the power play between nations and not like the incumbent president who is rhetoric and orator and may cause a disaster. This strategy would save the regime fighting an existence battle.
It might be strange but some signs show that the Superior Guide gather all cards in his hand. If one thought about Sadat and how he could save the country from communism and power centers he might be less astonished. Iran needs the West and its neighbors. Iran needs adjusted reform. Ahmadinjad and the Beiseij are the obstacles to do that.
Only one man knew that reformers would reduce his influence. This man was the Superior Guide Khemeini who congratulated the incumbent president before the interior minister declared the official result. Then the rulers who receive the real reports from specialized circles about people´s opinion knew the truth. Between the Western and Iranian media one would find it difficult to know the truth if he did not abide to facts. The only fact is the announcement of the Guardian Council (Council of Constitutional Maintenance) that three million votes were added to fifty out of three hundreds and sixty six electoral regions.
Simple calculations lead to a near fact conclusion which is about twenty million votes in all regions were added in to the incumbent president. This gives credibility to the British newspaper Independent photocopied report of the Iranian interior minister that was sent to the Superior Guide telling him that Mir Hussein Mousavi had about nineteen million votes and Ahmadinjad had about five and half millions votes. Despite the fact that the incumbent president is the Superior Guide´s man, the conservatives in Iran would use their interior minister´s report to make Ahmadinjad their ploy. Who leaked this report that it was supposed to be a top secret? Another question why did the Guardian Council tell people about the three million votes that were added to Ahmadinjad?
Until now there are no facts or answers to these two question but these questions lead to another question. Are the conservatives united or divided? When 105 out of 295 parliament members attend the victory ceremony Ahmadinjad should worry about what was happening. The conservative Ali Larijani, the Parliament Speaker and the ex-negotiator of the nuclear file whom Ahmadinjad sacked and chose a more hardliner one to replace him did not attend. Could the conservative Larijani do that against the will of the Superior Guide? Let´s not forget that one of the runners, Mohsen Redaee was another conservative and ex-command of the Revolutionary Guard. Would the Superior Guide and scholars plan to make Ahmadinjad a scapegoat after his unpopular economic policies during his first term? With the increasing popularity of reformers the regime needs a continuation strategy not an exit scenario.
The anti-corruption president who accepted fraud to keep the chair for a second term attacked Hashemi Rafsanjani the Head of the Consultative Council (Regime´s Interests Identification) accusing him of corruption. Rafsanjani is a reformist but a friend to the Superior Guide and manipulated the scholars after Khomeini´s death to choose Khemeini although others were more qualified for the post according to scholars´ parameters. Simply Ahmadinjad´s accusation fired back as he was the president, then why he gave a blind eye to corruption although he talked much about anticorruption measures until he ran for renewal of presidency.
The war between Ayat Allahs reached a critical level. Ayat Allah Shareaati said that religiously it is forbidden to stand against people´s will in a gesture to press for annulling election results. Simply Khemeini needs Rafsanjani´s support to win his battle against the popular and more qualified Shareaati. That is why the Superior Guide reprimanded his incumbent president and said that he refuses any accusation against Rafsanjani the reformist. Ayat Allahs in general worried that one exploded himself in late Khomeini´s mosque. This means that some groups want to change the system and they act not only against the president but also against the Superior Guide and his theocratic ideology.
Ex-president Khatami was a reformist. The Superior Guide did not interfere to make him lose the elections when he ran for his first term. Did the Superior Guide side with Ahmadinjad because both Mousavi and Karobi are from the minorities and not from the Persian race? This question should be answered convincingly after the elections were known to be fraudulent or the Persian race that constitutes about fifty to sixty percent of the population would be seen as a foreign force in minorities´ regions.
Before the elections the regime blocked the internet sites of reformist candidate Mousavi. When riots erupted youth used the new technology of mobile phones and blogging to tell the world about what was going on. Another question is as the regime blocked the sites before the elections and even isolated connections the day the riots erupted, then why did it allow phone connections to return while fights between the Beiseij militias and rioters were day and night and fires of some governmental buildings and mosques happened?
The Beiseij forces wear civilian dress and they were responsible about beating people, injuring hundreds and killing fifteen persons. In other words the Beiseij is the hooligan arm of the Revolutionary Guard and when Iranian citizens see their country in chaos by persons that could not be identified as Mousavi´s supporters or the Beiseij they would condemn both groups.
In fact the Beiseij is one of the staunch forces that would side with Ahmadinjad against reconciliation with the West and the US. The prediction in Iran is that reform would happen but the regime needs to adjust the tempo not to have the Soviet scenario that led to disintegration of the country. The Superior Guide should get rid of Ahmadinjad and his group and to dissolve the Beiseij forces to adjust the reform that his closest friend Rafsanjani supports and to talk with the US. News told that the Superior Guide received a letter from President Obama before the elections. Of course the Superior Guide and other top persons in the regime do not want the non Persian candidate.
The Superior Guide may plan for conditions that open the door for the conservative Mohsen Redaee who played his role and obeyed the Superior Guide and withdrew his complaint about the elections in some sort of corrective movement as a cornerstone of a continuation strategy. Redaee is an army general and knows the power play between nations and not like the incumbent president who is rhetoric and orator and may cause a disaster. This strategy would save the regime fighting an existence battle.
It might be strange but some signs show that the Superior Guide gather all cards in his hand. If one thought about Sadat and how he could save the country from communism and power centers he might be less astonished. Iran needs the West and its neighbors. Iran needs adjusted reform. Ahmadinjad and the Beiseij are the obstacles to do that.
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