Victory is not enough for Pakistan
Joe Fleishman
June 02, 2009
Pakistani authorities are now saying that they have achieved significant progress on dispersing Taliban rabbles from Swat Valley. Military proclaimed to have their victory in Taliban controlled Swat region, although accepting the possibility of few Taliban militia may still remaining in some small pockets. Taliban has fled from important cities like Mingora. Remaining lands soon will recaptured by the government forces, military claimed.
The U.S. sees Swat as a test of nuclear-armed Pakistan's ability and willingness to tackle insurgents in the northwest blamed for attacks on American and NATO forces in Afghanistan. After a violent, two-year Taliban campaign, the valley's local administrative authorities have been severely damaged, with top lawmakers, government officials and business leaders fleeing months ago. As the military is advancing Taliban forces are now retreating to the Afghan - Pakistan border.
Military´s victory is now almost imminent and no one will raise much doubt on it. At this moment it seems Pakistan will take full control over Swat valley region. But the question remain is what this military victory values for Pakistan? Analysts are skeptical. They think pushing Taliban north will ultimately not solve the problem. Taliban´s main stronghold is not Swat valley. Pakistan – Afghan rugged border is now the important Taliban hideout. Jagged terrain and inaccessible landscape provides sanctuary to many Taliban militants. On the other hand Pakistani army spokesman Maj. Gen. Athar Abbas acknowledged the escape of an unknown number of militants, no top commanders, including Swat Taliban chief Maulana Fazlullah, are known to have been killed or captured. What happen to their fate is unclear.
So, even after the triumph Pakistan´s tension is not yet over. Pakistan´s uncomfortable feelings will continue because they failed to eliminate Taliban entirely. Pakistan knows U.S. and its allies are keeping eyes on them and will make them responsible if Pakistan – Afghanistan border area will used to conduct Taliban operation on American and NATO forces.
Another thing which the government is not able to secure, that is conversion of local people to Taliban member. This is very critical issue for Pakistan to take tougher actions. Many civilians in the border area have close tie with the Taliban militants. Talibans are giving them money in return they are obliged by them and consider Taliban is their real sympathizer. As the Talibans are closely bonded with the local tribal communities government has little chance to monitoring the situation properly.
In an addition with this if this intimacy continues with the local people that will ensure reproduction of Taliban guerillas. Although at this moment they were compelled to fall back but in future there is a good chance for them to come back with more strength and assault to unnerve the government.
So for Pakistan army there is lot more things to do. Not only physically disarming the Taliban fighters but also they have to fight for demoralizing Taliban and local people to ensure prevention of further expansion of Taliban. How much capable are they to fight with both front? Only future can tell about it.
The U.S. sees Swat as a test of nuclear-armed Pakistan's ability and willingness to tackle insurgents in the northwest blamed for attacks on American and NATO forces in Afghanistan. After a violent, two-year Taliban campaign, the valley's local administrative authorities have been severely damaged, with top lawmakers, government officials and business leaders fleeing months ago. As the military is advancing Taliban forces are now retreating to the Afghan - Pakistan border.
Military´s victory is now almost imminent and no one will raise much doubt on it. At this moment it seems Pakistan will take full control over Swat valley region. But the question remain is what this military victory values for Pakistan? Analysts are skeptical. They think pushing Taliban north will ultimately not solve the problem. Taliban´s main stronghold is not Swat valley. Pakistan – Afghan rugged border is now the important Taliban hideout. Jagged terrain and inaccessible landscape provides sanctuary to many Taliban militants. On the other hand Pakistani army spokesman Maj. Gen. Athar Abbas acknowledged the escape of an unknown number of militants, no top commanders, including Swat Taliban chief Maulana Fazlullah, are known to have been killed or captured. What happen to their fate is unclear.
So, even after the triumph Pakistan´s tension is not yet over. Pakistan´s uncomfortable feelings will continue because they failed to eliminate Taliban entirely. Pakistan knows U.S. and its allies are keeping eyes on them and will make them responsible if Pakistan – Afghanistan border area will used to conduct Taliban operation on American and NATO forces.
Another thing which the government is not able to secure, that is conversion of local people to Taliban member. This is very critical issue for Pakistan to take tougher actions. Many civilians in the border area have close tie with the Taliban militants. Talibans are giving them money in return they are obliged by them and consider Taliban is their real sympathizer. As the Talibans are closely bonded with the local tribal communities government has little chance to monitoring the situation properly.
In an addition with this if this intimacy continues with the local people that will ensure reproduction of Taliban guerillas. Although at this moment they were compelled to fall back but in future there is a good chance for them to come back with more strength and assault to unnerve the government.
So for Pakistan army there is lot more things to do. Not only physically disarming the Taliban fighters but also they have to fight for demoralizing Taliban and local people to ensure prevention of further expansion of Taliban. How much capable are they to fight with both front? Only future can tell about it.
Print
Email
