Central Asia Between Victory and Chaos
Ahmed Hany
May 29, 2009
Which is better for the American strategy achieving victory in Central Asia or controlling the zone indirectly? The answer to this hypothetical question is the key to understanding the global American strategy from Pax-Americana to reconciliations with the Islamic World. This question may be asked in another way. Is the aim of the American strategy spreading democracy or controlling energy?
The American gathered seven-hundred-thousand troops to liberate Kuwait. However they decided to occupy Iraq with about one hundred and fifty troops only. The mission was clear in the first case while in the second case other theories by the New Cons deceived the world. From day one the Americans dismantled the Iraqi army and police force leaving the internal power balance for sectarian groups and tribes.
Before occupying Iraq the American were fighting in Afghanistan. It is no secret that both the British and Soviet empires failed to create stability in Afghanistan after they occupied it. However the Neo Cons used the military without enough rangers to fight Taliban and el Qaeda in mountains.
In fact controlling the energy is one of the global American strategies. Spreading chaos and keeping the occupying force in safe bases were the tools used by the Neo Cons. The Democrats use the soft power to achieve the same goal. The soft power means giving wider role for the intelligence and manipulating governments to force them to take the decisions desired by the US.
Therefore the definition of victory differs. For the Neo Cons victory means civilian war while creating safe areas for the government and their troops. The famous Iraqi Green Zone is the example. For the Democrats victory means achieving some sort of stability for the country while controlling the decision making centers by the intelligence.
Since President Obama has come he declared that his aim is to withdraw from Iraq and achieve victory in Afghanistan; victory in his terms. He wanted to talk to everybody. The news of Saudi mediation with Taliban serves his aim. There was a debate in the American strategic circles that if the Taliban returned to power in the Central Asian country with measures to be taken not to repeat 11 / 9 this would help transfer the Afghani file from the Pentagon to the CIA. This arrangement may prove more valid than achieving a military victory that would not last long. History tells that Afghanistan might be occupied quickly but troops would fight after they celebrated victory.
This gives the war in Pakistan between the army and the Pakistani Taliban significance. If the Pakistani army defeated military groups on its homeland this would encourage the Afghani Taliban to engage in talks. During this phase of the American global strategy, the return of Taliban to power serves many goals.
If Russia did not fight Taliban after NATO withdrawal it would keep large forces on its Southern front to protect their borders from infiltration to arm the rebels in their Islamic states. This situation either would force the Russian government to decrease tension in Europe or to increase the military budget. It would also force Russians to keep coordination between their intelligence and the CIA at least in Central Asia.
It is known that Taliban is an enemy of Iran and they would not forget the Iranian sin of abetting the Americans to occupy their country. If Taliban returned to power the Iranian government either would fight on its Western borders or giving concessions to the Americans to coordinate containing the new Afghani government. In either case this would allow the Americans to defuse much of the Iranian influence in Iraq and to decrease the Iranian threat for the Gulf States not to loose the Arab allies.
It is known that George W Bush received the Chinese Leader of the Islamic province. During Tibet crisis the West sided with Delay Lama. In fact, destabilizing China is the main American goal. Russia sees China its main threat on Siberia. To confront China the Middle East should be stable.
Achieving peace between the Arabs and the Israelis is difficult. However the main difficulty is to convince people that the concessions that their governments gave would help the future of their sons. To contain the violence in the Middle East the international intelligence bodies would send who insist on fighting to the Chinese front. Taliban ruling Afghanistan is an excellent arrangement for their base.
Hence the Americans transform Central Asia to an attractive area for violence advocates to fight in China. Even some secret deals with el-Qaeda may provide sanctions for this terrorist organization. Letīs not forget that Bin Laden was picked to fight the Russians in Afghanistan. What is the difference if he would lead a holey war to liberate the Chinese Islamic provinces? Of course the entire world and the media would condemn the terrorist attacks in China. However the Pax Americana strategy would be going on without using the armies. To stop this war the West would ask the Chinese to leave Africa and to drop the Korean and the Iranian cards on the table.
Regardless of anything, the Arabs might have an opportunity to see a Palestinian state. God bless Sadatīs soul. He said ninety nine percent of the cards are in the American hands. His ideas are still valid. Arabs have no options but to play the game with the cards that are in the American hands. The Israelis did that for sixty years. It is time for the Arabs to prove that their role in the global strategy is much bigger than the Israeli one.
The American gathered seven-hundred-thousand troops to liberate Kuwait. However they decided to occupy Iraq with about one hundred and fifty troops only. The mission was clear in the first case while in the second case other theories by the New Cons deceived the world. From day one the Americans dismantled the Iraqi army and police force leaving the internal power balance for sectarian groups and tribes.
Before occupying Iraq the American were fighting in Afghanistan. It is no secret that both the British and Soviet empires failed to create stability in Afghanistan after they occupied it. However the Neo Cons used the military without enough rangers to fight Taliban and el Qaeda in mountains.
In fact controlling the energy is one of the global American strategies. Spreading chaos and keeping the occupying force in safe bases were the tools used by the Neo Cons. The Democrats use the soft power to achieve the same goal. The soft power means giving wider role for the intelligence and manipulating governments to force them to take the decisions desired by the US.
Therefore the definition of victory differs. For the Neo Cons victory means civilian war while creating safe areas for the government and their troops. The famous Iraqi Green Zone is the example. For the Democrats victory means achieving some sort of stability for the country while controlling the decision making centers by the intelligence.
Since President Obama has come he declared that his aim is to withdraw from Iraq and achieve victory in Afghanistan; victory in his terms. He wanted to talk to everybody. The news of Saudi mediation with Taliban serves his aim. There was a debate in the American strategic circles that if the Taliban returned to power in the Central Asian country with measures to be taken not to repeat 11 / 9 this would help transfer the Afghani file from the Pentagon to the CIA. This arrangement may prove more valid than achieving a military victory that would not last long. History tells that Afghanistan might be occupied quickly but troops would fight after they celebrated victory.
This gives the war in Pakistan between the army and the Pakistani Taliban significance. If the Pakistani army defeated military groups on its homeland this would encourage the Afghani Taliban to engage in talks. During this phase of the American global strategy, the return of Taliban to power serves many goals.
If Russia did not fight Taliban after NATO withdrawal it would keep large forces on its Southern front to protect their borders from infiltration to arm the rebels in their Islamic states. This situation either would force the Russian government to decrease tension in Europe or to increase the military budget. It would also force Russians to keep coordination between their intelligence and the CIA at least in Central Asia.
It is known that Taliban is an enemy of Iran and they would not forget the Iranian sin of abetting the Americans to occupy their country. If Taliban returned to power the Iranian government either would fight on its Western borders or giving concessions to the Americans to coordinate containing the new Afghani government. In either case this would allow the Americans to defuse much of the Iranian influence in Iraq and to decrease the Iranian threat for the Gulf States not to loose the Arab allies.
It is known that George W Bush received the Chinese Leader of the Islamic province. During Tibet crisis the West sided with Delay Lama. In fact, destabilizing China is the main American goal. Russia sees China its main threat on Siberia. To confront China the Middle East should be stable.
Achieving peace between the Arabs and the Israelis is difficult. However the main difficulty is to convince people that the concessions that their governments gave would help the future of their sons. To contain the violence in the Middle East the international intelligence bodies would send who insist on fighting to the Chinese front. Taliban ruling Afghanistan is an excellent arrangement for their base.
Hence the Americans transform Central Asia to an attractive area for violence advocates to fight in China. Even some secret deals with el-Qaeda may provide sanctions for this terrorist organization. Letīs not forget that Bin Laden was picked to fight the Russians in Afghanistan. What is the difference if he would lead a holey war to liberate the Chinese Islamic provinces? Of course the entire world and the media would condemn the terrorist attacks in China. However the Pax Americana strategy would be going on without using the armies. To stop this war the West would ask the Chinese to leave Africa and to drop the Korean and the Iranian cards on the table.
Regardless of anything, the Arabs might have an opportunity to see a Palestinian state. God bless Sadatīs soul. He said ninety nine percent of the cards are in the American hands. His ideas are still valid. Arabs have no options but to play the game with the cards that are in the American hands. The Israelis did that for sixty years. It is time for the Arabs to prove that their role in the global strategy is much bigger than the Israeli one.
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