The North Korean Crisis: a power game
Dr. Tanvir Orakzai
May 14, 2006
North Korea's resumption of its nuclear weapons program has set its neighbors and much of the world including the US in crisis. The immediate response by US, Japan, IMF and World Bank was to put sanctions and deny diplomatic relations. North Korea till 1980s was a developed and industrialized country, but in recent years, it has been reduced to near collapse by combination of circumstances, some of which are created by its leader and some are beyond its control. Being labeled as ?"terror-exporting" state, North Korea is caught in the horns of crisis and is eager to engage in broad global economy, but it fears, that such participation may weaken its political system. On one side it is in severe economic crisis, on the other hand the five nations, US, China, Japan, and South Korea are exerting their pressure to curb its nuclear ambitions. This six-sided framework setup during 2003 was meant to face North Korea with a united front of regional and global power, and push for nuclear disarmament. Each of these nations is playing this diplomatic game according to their own interests that has made situation quite complex for the last many years.
As the diplomatic game un-veils, it is clear that all the partners are committed to a non-nuclear peninsula. While all players are against the idea of war, except US which is not ruling out the option. The North Korea four neighbours are opposed to such solution, but they cannot openly oppose US. Pyongyang desires to sign a non-aggression treaty with US before it makes any move, but US says that it will not bow to the black mailing of a ? rogue state? As a result the crisis has become worse and US position has been weakened while China has moved to center stage taking the lead role.
South Korea the North Korea immediate neighbours had fought a bloody war and has been locked in this confrontation for decades is in the most perilous condition. Due to the painful experience, South Korea has now adopted a more conciliatory approach towards North Korea by choosing the path of ?sunshine? a dialogue and cooperative based solution of the issue advocated by former president Kim Dae Jung. The approach is Confucian, where human beings are not seen all evil, but rather complex; and some times poor resort to violence to get respect.
Japan unlike South Korea has taken has taken serious steps to normalize the relation, especially strengthening the relation with US. In the wake of North Korea hatred and fear Kiozumi earlier sent a special detachment force to Iraq, and also committed to purchase a US missile system to protect Japan against North Korea threat. Japan recently passed a legislation to authorize unilateral economic sanctions and tighten the rules against North Koreans ships entry into its waters. The Japanese approach is following US rather than listening to North Korean demands
China being the closet ally has historical relation with the North Korea. In fact China is the major source of food supplies and energy to North Korea. The Chinese pressure has been instrumental in perusing North Korea and asking to reverse its nuclear program, if US guarantee North Korea security. China approach is no war as all issues can be solved by talks. The main concern for China is let the current status quo thrive, as China has thousands of ethnic Koreans in the country. In the case of a war, there can be further inflow of North Koreans, which China does not want. Moscow position is not as strong as it used to be, but it has voiced sympathy for North Korea and blamed Washington for the breakdown of the 1994 agreement. After the breakup of relations for a decade with North Korea, Putin made a landmark visit in 2000 to breath new life into the relations. The main reason is that North Korea is in the middle of economic and political crisis; it wants to upgrade the Soviet-built infrastructure, which is only possible if relations with Russia are warm.
The neo-conservative within Bush regime from 1990s believes that North Korea is evil and ?should be liberated?, by any means possible. President Bush has made his hatred clear against Kim Jong II openly in many speeches. After the over through of Saddam, Bush mentioned that Korean crisis could be solved by peaceful means, however in reality US current unilateral policy is not working. At present US forces are mired in Iraq, Afghanistan, and US is also picking war with Iran. The Cheney and Rumsfeld approach is crude and undiplomatic which will alienate even friends as happened during the Iraq invasion crisis. The North Korean dilemma is a concern for the regional and international powers alike; the US worry about nuclear activities is justified, but its position is un-flexible compared to other partners. North Korea needs push and carrot approach, which US tried to follow after 2003, however there is need of more flexibility to solve the issue.
As the diplomatic game un-veils, it is clear that all the partners are committed to a non-nuclear peninsula. While all players are against the idea of war, except US which is not ruling out the option. The North Korea four neighbours are opposed to such solution, but they cannot openly oppose US. Pyongyang desires to sign a non-aggression treaty with US before it makes any move, but US says that it will not bow to the black mailing of a ? rogue state? As a result the crisis has become worse and US position has been weakened while China has moved to center stage taking the lead role.
South Korea the North Korea immediate neighbours had fought a bloody war and has been locked in this confrontation for decades is in the most perilous condition. Due to the painful experience, South Korea has now adopted a more conciliatory approach towards North Korea by choosing the path of ?sunshine? a dialogue and cooperative based solution of the issue advocated by former president Kim Dae Jung. The approach is Confucian, where human beings are not seen all evil, but rather complex; and some times poor resort to violence to get respect.
Japan unlike South Korea has taken has taken serious steps to normalize the relation, especially strengthening the relation with US. In the wake of North Korea hatred and fear Kiozumi earlier sent a special detachment force to Iraq, and also committed to purchase a US missile system to protect Japan against North Korea threat. Japan recently passed a legislation to authorize unilateral economic sanctions and tighten the rules against North Koreans ships entry into its waters. The Japanese approach is following US rather than listening to North Korean demands
China being the closet ally has historical relation with the North Korea. In fact China is the major source of food supplies and energy to North Korea. The Chinese pressure has been instrumental in perusing North Korea and asking to reverse its nuclear program, if US guarantee North Korea security. China approach is no war as all issues can be solved by talks. The main concern for China is let the current status quo thrive, as China has thousands of ethnic Koreans in the country. In the case of a war, there can be further inflow of North Koreans, which China does not want. Moscow position is not as strong as it used to be, but it has voiced sympathy for North Korea and blamed Washington for the breakdown of the 1994 agreement. After the breakup of relations for a decade with North Korea, Putin made a landmark visit in 2000 to breath new life into the relations. The main reason is that North Korea is in the middle of economic and political crisis; it wants to upgrade the Soviet-built infrastructure, which is only possible if relations with Russia are warm.
The neo-conservative within Bush regime from 1990s believes that North Korea is evil and ?should be liberated?, by any means possible. President Bush has made his hatred clear against Kim Jong II openly in many speeches. After the over through of Saddam, Bush mentioned that Korean crisis could be solved by peaceful means, however in reality US current unilateral policy is not working. At present US forces are mired in Iraq, Afghanistan, and US is also picking war with Iran. The Cheney and Rumsfeld approach is crude and undiplomatic which will alienate even friends as happened during the Iraq invasion crisis. The North Korean dilemma is a concern for the regional and international powers alike; the US worry about nuclear activities is justified, but its position is un-flexible compared to other partners. North Korea needs push and carrot approach, which US tried to follow after 2003, however there is need of more flexibility to solve the issue.