J&K election 2008 - Failures & Successes - Alliances- Messages
Daya Sagar Sharma
December 31, 2008
A Look through the mist
At last the elections to 11th Jammu & Kashmir State ( Inidia ) Legislative Assembly are over. With this came the end of the drama where in the political leaders were forced for over two months to play innocence, pledge for honesty, sincerity, truthfullness in future and beg for the mistakes of the past. The voters turned out was really in large numbers during first six phases. In the seventh phase too ( 24th Dec ) voters did come out in big numbers compared to the polling in Srinagar District during 2002 ( only 3 to 15% ). No doubt in Srinagar District the separatist did work very hard to save their stakes but still the turn out though small was 3 to 4 times the 2002 turnout. National Conference made clean sweep in Srinagar District but Mehbooba Mufti has contested it as not mass mandate since polling percentage had been less than 20% in most of the Constituencies of Srinagar District . The elections did send a message to the world community that (i ) The people of Kashmir do believe that democratic institutions work in J&K (ii) The Kashmiri masses are surely not clamouring for Pakistan (iii ) the separatist elements in J&K surely stand at lower ladder in comparison to Parties like National Conference and Congress ( I have not included PDP in list since PDP has yet to prove that it could survive without separatist like signals) (iv) Indian security forces do have control over Kashmir and (v ) people in Pakistan in general and those in POK in particular would have some questions for their governments in view of manner and ease which elections to J&K Legislative Assembly have been held in November / December this year.
PDP and its leadership in Mehbooba Mufti and others had been left free to advocate their self rule, joint Indo -Pak Control over J&K affairs and even demand for the use of Pakistan currency in Kashmir ( only J&K not India ) . The UPA and Congress did not fully disown PDP. Sayeed Ali Shah Geelani publically declared in August 08 that he was not an Indian and went to the extent of suggesting a common Kashmiri to call his self a Pakistani. He was free on the road. The response of the masses to the election process does reflect rejection of the separatists , though not total.
While studying the ground realities , particularly in Kashmir Region , we also need to have a look at the policy and programmes that National Conference extended in October / November this year. National Conference has in the past always rejected any talks / negotiation with separatist elements (regarding 1947 accession of J&K with India ). Farooq Abdullah had even gone to the extent of offering to open the borders for those who do not want to stay in India. But this time NC had shown some change in its suggestions. NC did reject the separatist but also suggested to the GOI to listen to what Omar Farooq or Geelani or Sajjad oe Shabir or Yasin had to say. NC asked every one to take part in elections pleading that this will not be a voting on Kashmir issue. The message sent was that Elections are required simply for running day to day soci economic affairs of local interest.. Surely for NC cadres it was a wisely drafted shift under compulsions. There was a clever shift in the policy and programmes that National Conference extended for people of Kashmir valley. This time NC compaigned for elections keeping the Kashmir Issue and separatist movement on one side. The message was well received by the people and hence they came out in good numbers.
To some extent the Amarnath Land issue agitation too had made some people anthusiastic regarding the assembly elections. People wanted to vote. Although many names had been missed in the voting lists, many names were wrongly written and even some male voters were wrongly mentioned as females but still it was the seriousness that the voters showed in searching for their names in the lists that added to voting percentage.
The BJP compaign programme appeared to be not that sound . Congress only talked of devlopment programmes under taken at unimaginable pace. It appeared that the self praise by Congress leaders could not convince the masses who on ground saw only the funds drained mercilessly and incomlete works .
National Conference and Congress have emerged as the two parties to hold the key . In view of elections to Lok Sabha due in April 2009 Congress had to prefer alliance with National Conference , otherwise in case elections were not due for Lok Sabha in April 2009 Congress could go with PDP as well as in first go. Surely Congress will not go in for any alliance with BJP. National Conference will not go in alliance with PDP nor will PDP go with National Conference. But if at any time NC and PDP go for alliance to form a government then all separatist ideologies in Kashmir will come together and GOI will have to redraft all strategies on Kashmir. Had BJP and NC come together ( in view of declarations made by Omar Abdullah , it would be just dreaming sweet by the people of J&K ) this could be the best out come both in the Interest of India in general and J&K in particular . The separatist elements and agendas would be best settled under this arrangement. No doubt BJP leaders had not before 28 Dec 08 ruled out any alliance with NC But it was on 28 Dec that BJP too outrightly declared that it will support no alliance but this declaration surely was in response to Omar Abdullah rejecting remotest possiblity of any alliance with BJP.
In Kashmir Valley the voters were sure on one thing that they could vote for individuals of their choice from PDP / Congress/ NC and when ever there would be requirement for standing together for the cause of Kashmir region all MLAs would stand together irrespective of their party. There fore no party in Kashmir Valley could secure this time more than 20 seats . In Jammu region togetherness factor on regional basis was wanting and the districts of Rajouri, Poonch, Kishtwar , Doda and Udhampur behaved differently as compared to Jammu, Samba , and Kathua .
For National Conference too times would not be that easy, since Dr. Farooq Abdullah himself has moved out of the power scene. Congress , the "injured tiger" , would not so easily rest in calm. Sheikh / Indira ( 1975 ) and Rajiv /Farooq ( 1986/ 87) accord scars / earlier failures should be still visible and PDP has started reminding Congress as well NC of the same.
In 2002 elections also NC had won 28 Seats but that time NC did not show keen interest in forming the government. No doubt one of the reasons was that Dr. Farooq had not contested elections and Omar Abdullah was defeated in the field. Had NC staked the claim then , some other NC leader ( may be A.R. Rather ) would have become CM or Dr. Farooq had to return to state politics where as he was eyeing at national scene. NC might have also hoped that the alliances would not lost. But staying out of power did adversly affect the political stakes for NC. Now this time both PDP and NC were desperate to hold the reins of the government. NC saw its total loss in times to come in case PDP again took to power seat. Inspite of Amarnath Land agitation PDP has increased its MLAs in assembly even from Jammu Region from zero to two ( Rajouri & Poonch Districts ) . So NC would now more like to project it as saviour of Kashmir cause and would like to carry on with the torch of "Kashmir issue settlement" to take lead over PDP ( main stream party allegedly carrying separatist agenda). Earlier Saif u Din Soz had not ruled out an alliance with the PDP and may be in view of this also Dr Farooq Abdullah and Omar Abdullah had made a trip to Delhi in advance for gauging Congress mood.
In the circumstances where the J&K affairs have been made to land over the years the response of the masses to the election process does have some relation to rejection of the separatists but surely it is not total.This could well be inferred from the statements as made by Omar Abdullah immediately after he reached Srinagar after the counting started on 28 December. Omar Abdullah out rightly said that at no cost the alliance would be made with BJP. He almost declared that NC will go for alliance with Congress. Dr. Farooq Abdullah, though talked of doors to be always kept open by political parties, too said that no alliance with BJP could be in consideration. It has to be appreciated by all that National Conference is feeling some pressures of the separatist culture having taken deep roots in Kashmir Valley otherwise atleast Dr. Farooq abdullah would not have gone to the extent of indirectly accusing the voters who voted for BJP of being communal. Such reactions could be expected from any one but never from Dr. Farooq Abdullah.
But Dr. Farooq Abdullah will have to play a front role to save his party and people of Kashmir valley from further loss. National Conference would be pushed further back to the wall in Jammu region in case Farooq Abdullah withdraws. NC was very sure to win Bani and Basoli seats but has lost both seats. PDP has already made inroads in Rajouri and Poonch at the cost of NC . Socio communal disintegration can be checked only in case the reins of National Conference remain in the hands of Farooq Abdullah. He is wise enough to sense the loss his party suffered at the hands of 2nd rung leadership in 2001-02. He has again decided to work from outside and the guide the government. Unless some programme is in hand as regards settling Kashmir affairs at the international level and Dr. Farooq Abdullah has to be given this task , the decision will require a time test .. Let us wait an see. Otherwise Dr. Farooq should not have taken the risk once again ( particularly Omar Abdullah being innocent plain speaking politician ). It can also not be ruled out that may be some well wishers of Congress and PDP have succeeded in their plans. PDP has a lobby in New Delhi like NC. Some Congress leaders in Jammu too felt that a repeat coalition with the PDP would be ´suicidal´ for the party in Jammu region.NC in particular and PDP in general to seek allies in Jammu based parties .
Farooq Abdullah is required at the national level too but he is particularly needed to fight the anti India forces and their supporters in J&K. The regionalism has taken deep roots in the common mind set of the valley people and the political leadership can not afford to overlook this. No doubt even a faint hint from the voters of Jammu region that some day the people of Jammu region may also collectively work for common cause, has raised alarms in the minds of the Kashmir centric leaders and it appears that they would now try to concentrate all energies in Valley.
Congress had increased its MLAs from 20 to 31 till July 2008 and this way it has lost 14 MLAs in 2008 elections. NC had 28 in 2002 and 24 in July 2008 so it has gained 4 MLAs. PDP had 18 in July 2008 so has also gained that way 3 seats. BJP has gained 10 seats but still much introspection need be done by BJP. It will not be that easy for BJPto make this gain yield more for times to come.The gain will have to be cemented . In view of the numbers that Congress and NC had alliance was clear possiblility looking at the elections to Lok Sabha in April 2009 since alliance of Congress with PDP could be used by BJP at the national level as alliance by Congress with separatist ideology. I
The BJP compaign programme appeared to be not that sound and the 11 seats BJP has secured are more due to discrimination issues as were deliberated by the people of Jammu region on the side lines of Amarnath Land issue agitation and not due to efforts of BJP poll managers. The poor projection of common needs and interests by BJP reflects in the extent of losses suffered by BJP in atleast five constituencies ( Vijaypur, Akhnoor , Samba , Bishnah and Udhampur ). Ofcourse Kishtwar, Ramban and Rajouri low score of BJP reflects that those who talk of neglect of Jammu Region by the local Governments of the past as well as New Delhi have yet to do a lot to carry along the people from all districts of Jammu region. Some individuals who have been talking of discrimination with or neglect of Jammu Region had become ambitious after June08 agitation. They showed quite short sightedness .Had they shown some far sightedness the concern for the regional welfare amongst the people of all the districts of Jammu Region would have become stronger adding weight to common cause. Panther Party has demonstrated good results retaining 3 MLAs out of 4 it had. But this party has yet to come out of the Kashmir centric compulsions like its suggesting for return to 1953 status and scrapping of central laws that were extended to J&K after 1953 as its leadership was seen doing in 1990s.. The wisdom and committment of the leaders of this party has yet to be channellised with strength and surely they have capacity to promote oneness amongst the people .(* Daya Sagar is a senior coloumnist on J&K affairs dayasagr@yahoo.co.uk)
At last the elections to 11th Jammu & Kashmir State ( Inidia ) Legislative Assembly are over. With this came the end of the drama where in the political leaders were forced for over two months to play innocence, pledge for honesty, sincerity, truthfullness in future and beg for the mistakes of the past. The voters turned out was really in large numbers during first six phases. In the seventh phase too ( 24th Dec ) voters did come out in big numbers compared to the polling in Srinagar District during 2002 ( only 3 to 15% ). No doubt in Srinagar District the separatist did work very hard to save their stakes but still the turn out though small was 3 to 4 times the 2002 turnout. National Conference made clean sweep in Srinagar District but Mehbooba Mufti has contested it as not mass mandate since polling percentage had been less than 20% in most of the Constituencies of Srinagar District . The elections did send a message to the world community that (i ) The people of Kashmir do believe that democratic institutions work in J&K (ii) The Kashmiri masses are surely not clamouring for Pakistan (iii ) the separatist elements in J&K surely stand at lower ladder in comparison to Parties like National Conference and Congress ( I have not included PDP in list since PDP has yet to prove that it could survive without separatist like signals) (iv) Indian security forces do have control over Kashmir and (v ) people in Pakistan in general and those in POK in particular would have some questions for their governments in view of manner and ease which elections to J&K Legislative Assembly have been held in November / December this year.
PDP and its leadership in Mehbooba Mufti and others had been left free to advocate their self rule, joint Indo -Pak Control over J&K affairs and even demand for the use of Pakistan currency in Kashmir ( only J&K not India ) . The UPA and Congress did not fully disown PDP. Sayeed Ali Shah Geelani publically declared in August 08 that he was not an Indian and went to the extent of suggesting a common Kashmiri to call his self a Pakistani. He was free on the road. The response of the masses to the election process does reflect rejection of the separatists , though not total.
While studying the ground realities , particularly in Kashmir Region , we also need to have a look at the policy and programmes that National Conference extended in October / November this year. National Conference has in the past always rejected any talks / negotiation with separatist elements (regarding 1947 accession of J&K with India ). Farooq Abdullah had even gone to the extent of offering to open the borders for those who do not want to stay in India. But this time NC had shown some change in its suggestions. NC did reject the separatist but also suggested to the GOI to listen to what Omar Farooq or Geelani or Sajjad oe Shabir or Yasin had to say. NC asked every one to take part in elections pleading that this will not be a voting on Kashmir issue. The message sent was that Elections are required simply for running day to day soci economic affairs of local interest.. Surely for NC cadres it was a wisely drafted shift under compulsions. There was a clever shift in the policy and programmes that National Conference extended for people of Kashmir valley. This time NC compaigned for elections keeping the Kashmir Issue and separatist movement on one side. The message was well received by the people and hence they came out in good numbers.
To some extent the Amarnath Land issue agitation too had made some people anthusiastic regarding the assembly elections. People wanted to vote. Although many names had been missed in the voting lists, many names were wrongly written and even some male voters were wrongly mentioned as females but still it was the seriousness that the voters showed in searching for their names in the lists that added to voting percentage.
The BJP compaign programme appeared to be not that sound . Congress only talked of devlopment programmes under taken at unimaginable pace. It appeared that the self praise by Congress leaders could not convince the masses who on ground saw only the funds drained mercilessly and incomlete works .
National Conference and Congress have emerged as the two parties to hold the key . In view of elections to Lok Sabha due in April 2009 Congress had to prefer alliance with National Conference , otherwise in case elections were not due for Lok Sabha in April 2009 Congress could go with PDP as well as in first go. Surely Congress will not go in for any alliance with BJP. National Conference will not go in alliance with PDP nor will PDP go with National Conference. But if at any time NC and PDP go for alliance to form a government then all separatist ideologies in Kashmir will come together and GOI will have to redraft all strategies on Kashmir. Had BJP and NC come together ( in view of declarations made by Omar Abdullah , it would be just dreaming sweet by the people of J&K ) this could be the best out come both in the Interest of India in general and J&K in particular . The separatist elements and agendas would be best settled under this arrangement. No doubt BJP leaders had not before 28 Dec 08 ruled out any alliance with NC But it was on 28 Dec that BJP too outrightly declared that it will support no alliance but this declaration surely was in response to Omar Abdullah rejecting remotest possiblity of any alliance with BJP.
In Kashmir Valley the voters were sure on one thing that they could vote for individuals of their choice from PDP / Congress/ NC and when ever there would be requirement for standing together for the cause of Kashmir region all MLAs would stand together irrespective of their party. There fore no party in Kashmir Valley could secure this time more than 20 seats . In Jammu region togetherness factor on regional basis was wanting and the districts of Rajouri, Poonch, Kishtwar , Doda and Udhampur behaved differently as compared to Jammu, Samba , and Kathua .
For National Conference too times would not be that easy, since Dr. Farooq Abdullah himself has moved out of the power scene. Congress , the "injured tiger" , would not so easily rest in calm. Sheikh / Indira ( 1975 ) and Rajiv /Farooq ( 1986/ 87) accord scars / earlier failures should be still visible and PDP has started reminding Congress as well NC of the same.
In 2002 elections also NC had won 28 Seats but that time NC did not show keen interest in forming the government. No doubt one of the reasons was that Dr. Farooq had not contested elections and Omar Abdullah was defeated in the field. Had NC staked the claim then , some other NC leader ( may be A.R. Rather ) would have become CM or Dr. Farooq had to return to state politics where as he was eyeing at national scene. NC might have also hoped that the alliances would not lost. But staying out of power did adversly affect the political stakes for NC. Now this time both PDP and NC were desperate to hold the reins of the government. NC saw its total loss in times to come in case PDP again took to power seat. Inspite of Amarnath Land agitation PDP has increased its MLAs in assembly even from Jammu Region from zero to two ( Rajouri & Poonch Districts ) . So NC would now more like to project it as saviour of Kashmir cause and would like to carry on with the torch of "Kashmir issue settlement" to take lead over PDP ( main stream party allegedly carrying separatist agenda). Earlier Saif u Din Soz had not ruled out an alliance with the PDP and may be in view of this also Dr Farooq Abdullah and Omar Abdullah had made a trip to Delhi in advance for gauging Congress mood.
In the circumstances where the J&K affairs have been made to land over the years the response of the masses to the election process does have some relation to rejection of the separatists but surely it is not total.This could well be inferred from the statements as made by Omar Abdullah immediately after he reached Srinagar after the counting started on 28 December. Omar Abdullah out rightly said that at no cost the alliance would be made with BJP. He almost declared that NC will go for alliance with Congress. Dr. Farooq Abdullah, though talked of doors to be always kept open by political parties, too said that no alliance with BJP could be in consideration. It has to be appreciated by all that National Conference is feeling some pressures of the separatist culture having taken deep roots in Kashmir Valley otherwise atleast Dr. Farooq abdullah would not have gone to the extent of indirectly accusing the voters who voted for BJP of being communal. Such reactions could be expected from any one but never from Dr. Farooq Abdullah.
But Dr. Farooq Abdullah will have to play a front role to save his party and people of Kashmir valley from further loss. National Conference would be pushed further back to the wall in Jammu region in case Farooq Abdullah withdraws. NC was very sure to win Bani and Basoli seats but has lost both seats. PDP has already made inroads in Rajouri and Poonch at the cost of NC . Socio communal disintegration can be checked only in case the reins of National Conference remain in the hands of Farooq Abdullah. He is wise enough to sense the loss his party suffered at the hands of 2nd rung leadership in 2001-02. He has again decided to work from outside and the guide the government. Unless some programme is in hand as regards settling Kashmir affairs at the international level and Dr. Farooq Abdullah has to be given this task , the decision will require a time test .. Let us wait an see. Otherwise Dr. Farooq should not have taken the risk once again ( particularly Omar Abdullah being innocent plain speaking politician ). It can also not be ruled out that may be some well wishers of Congress and PDP have succeeded in their plans. PDP has a lobby in New Delhi like NC. Some Congress leaders in Jammu too felt that a repeat coalition with the PDP would be ´suicidal´ for the party in Jammu region.NC in particular and PDP in general to seek allies in Jammu based parties .
Farooq Abdullah is required at the national level too but he is particularly needed to fight the anti India forces and their supporters in J&K. The regionalism has taken deep roots in the common mind set of the valley people and the political leadership can not afford to overlook this. No doubt even a faint hint from the voters of Jammu region that some day the people of Jammu region may also collectively work for common cause, has raised alarms in the minds of the Kashmir centric leaders and it appears that they would now try to concentrate all energies in Valley.
Congress had increased its MLAs from 20 to 31 till July 2008 and this way it has lost 14 MLAs in 2008 elections. NC had 28 in 2002 and 24 in July 2008 so it has gained 4 MLAs. PDP had 18 in July 2008 so has also gained that way 3 seats. BJP has gained 10 seats but still much introspection need be done by BJP. It will not be that easy for BJPto make this gain yield more for times to come.The gain will have to be cemented . In view of the numbers that Congress and NC had alliance was clear possiblility looking at the elections to Lok Sabha in April 2009 since alliance of Congress with PDP could be used by BJP at the national level as alliance by Congress with separatist ideology. I
The BJP compaign programme appeared to be not that sound and the 11 seats BJP has secured are more due to discrimination issues as were deliberated by the people of Jammu region on the side lines of Amarnath Land issue agitation and not due to efforts of BJP poll managers. The poor projection of common needs and interests by BJP reflects in the extent of losses suffered by BJP in atleast five constituencies ( Vijaypur, Akhnoor , Samba , Bishnah and Udhampur ). Ofcourse Kishtwar, Ramban and Rajouri low score of BJP reflects that those who talk of neglect of Jammu Region by the local Governments of the past as well as New Delhi have yet to do a lot to carry along the people from all districts of Jammu region. Some individuals who have been talking of discrimination with or neglect of Jammu Region had become ambitious after June08 agitation. They showed quite short sightedness .Had they shown some far sightedness the concern for the regional welfare amongst the people of all the districts of Jammu Region would have become stronger adding weight to common cause. Panther Party has demonstrated good results retaining 3 MLAs out of 4 it had. But this party has yet to come out of the Kashmir centric compulsions like its suggesting for return to 1953 status and scrapping of central laws that were extended to J&K after 1953 as its leadership was seen doing in 1990s.. The wisdom and committment of the leaders of this party has yet to be channellised with strength and surely they have capacity to promote oneness amongst the people .(* Daya Sagar is a senior coloumnist on J&K affairs dayasagr@yahoo.co.uk)