Pakistan On Volcano
Ahmed Hany
September 10, 2008
Since creation of Pakistan in the middle of the last century and its main problem is security. Its geography and the corruption of its politicians had a drastic effect on the second largest Islamic country. The abstract of its history is alternative periods between incomplete democracy and military coups. It lost two wars against its giant Asian neighbor India about Kashmir and East Pakistan, now Bangladesh. Yet it could achieve some balance after it developed nuclear weapons and land-to-land missiles.
The two main parties allied themselves against President Pervez Mosharaf who extradited Pakistan´s most popular leaders. Yet these leaders were corrupted but business interests dictate policy there.
When Benazir Butto was assassinated she took with her a great part of Pakistan´s stability. She had the charisma and the popularity and she was a clever politician. However, her husband Asif Ali Zardari, who is nominated now by her father´s Pakistan People´s Party PPP to be a president, was accused of being corrupt. He fears that the return of judges who were sacked by Mosharaf might accuse him. The PPP does not trust the army specially that its founder Zo-Al-Fakkar Ali Butto was executed by the regime of General Gad-Al-Haq who led the military coup that ousted him.
Nawaz Sherif, the leader of the Pakistan Moslems League PML-N is another ex-primer who faced humiliation on the hands of Mosharaf regime specially when he tried to return to his country from his exile in Saudi Arabia but the airport authorities deported him again. When he was removed from his post as a prime minister, the nuclear program was still a secret. From his exile, he declared the Pakistan had a nuclear bomb to instigate the world against his country. He has contacts with extremists and fanatics. He was also accused of being corrupt.
To summarize the picture one may say two untrustworthy politicians aliened themselves against a military ruler. When he resigned, they thought about personal benefits. All used words like democracy, liberalism, justice and other national slogans to gather deceived people. Pakistan´s political system is about a family wants to run the country as a family business that confronts a conservative party who has strong contacts with fanatics and an army that its generals are always ready to have the final word and to outset, condemn, extradite or even execute politicians. The rift between politicians is about who runs the business, the secular businessmen or conservative merchants.
There are other internal serious threats that should be addressed wisely. The tribes in the north, the Bushmen, the Shiite rebels and Blotch-Stan are armed and some seek separation. During the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan, the Pakistani intelligence trained Afghanistan´s Taliban with the help and approval of the US, and let Pakistani Taliban help them also. After Pakistan aliened itself to the USA in its War on Terror, both Talibans fight against the Pakistani Army. The lesson is that a secular regime should not arm or train fanatics even if this serves its short-term aims. Securing the nuclear weapons is another problem that makes the army ready for internal moves at any price.
Finally yet importantly is the poverty problem. In both Pakistan and India, the different governments could not solve the poverty problem to achieve the secure levels that create stability. Whether is the Asian Giant India or in its rival Pakistan still there people ready for suicidal acts against their rivals after the poverty had badly stricken them and they think that suicidal acts might send them to paradise. The heavy population and the geography play in their favor against innocent people and governments.
The external security threats are no less serious than the internal dark picture. The geography of Pakistan makes its border difficult to control. It is surrounded by countries that have contradicting security views and hostility more than cooperation and friendship is the nature of the relations between them. India accuses Pakistan of supporting terrorism and Hammed Karazi of Afghanistan repeatedly declare that he would extend military operations against Taliban to the Pakistani Northern Provinces. Iran and Pakistan do not trust each other, and Iran supports the Afghanistan Shiites that fought against Sunni Fanatic Taliban before the American occupation of the country. Both countries accuse each other of supporting separatists and rebels.
The Neo-Cons see Pakistan an ideal country for creative chaos. It is the Eastern Region of their new Large Middle East. On the other hand, they need Pakistan more than any other country for the War on Terror. It would provide a good access for the logistics if Russia gave its back to NATO forces in Afghanistan. In the global energy strategy, it provides an ideal place for pipelines from Central Asian Oil to the Arab Sea especially now that the result of the confrontation between the West and Russia is still open.
During the Cold War, Pakistan was member in the Central Alliance. The Caucasus crisis makes stable Pakistan a vital subject for the Western Allies. The US might revive the Central Alliance if it decided to confront Russia in a Cold-War-II. On the long term, the American strategy sees Pakistan having a vital role to confront China and India also if the parliament of the later refused the US-Indian nuclear accords.
Therefore, if the new Pakistani President could not secure the country in few weeks the army would remove him. Recently a meeting between the American and the Pakistani military commandship was held. Most probably securing the country was the main if not the single issue. For the Americans, it would be easy to verbally condemn military coups and give excuses for cooperation for the sake of the War on Terror. Did Washington give the green light for the Army Commander to have the top post? I bet on this.
The two main parties allied themselves against President Pervez Mosharaf who extradited Pakistan´s most popular leaders. Yet these leaders were corrupted but business interests dictate policy there.
When Benazir Butto was assassinated she took with her a great part of Pakistan´s stability. She had the charisma and the popularity and she was a clever politician. However, her husband Asif Ali Zardari, who is nominated now by her father´s Pakistan People´s Party PPP to be a president, was accused of being corrupt. He fears that the return of judges who were sacked by Mosharaf might accuse him. The PPP does not trust the army specially that its founder Zo-Al-Fakkar Ali Butto was executed by the regime of General Gad-Al-Haq who led the military coup that ousted him.
Nawaz Sherif, the leader of the Pakistan Moslems League PML-N is another ex-primer who faced humiliation on the hands of Mosharaf regime specially when he tried to return to his country from his exile in Saudi Arabia but the airport authorities deported him again. When he was removed from his post as a prime minister, the nuclear program was still a secret. From his exile, he declared the Pakistan had a nuclear bomb to instigate the world against his country. He has contacts with extremists and fanatics. He was also accused of being corrupt.
To summarize the picture one may say two untrustworthy politicians aliened themselves against a military ruler. When he resigned, they thought about personal benefits. All used words like democracy, liberalism, justice and other national slogans to gather deceived people. Pakistan´s political system is about a family wants to run the country as a family business that confronts a conservative party who has strong contacts with fanatics and an army that its generals are always ready to have the final word and to outset, condemn, extradite or even execute politicians. The rift between politicians is about who runs the business, the secular businessmen or conservative merchants.
There are other internal serious threats that should be addressed wisely. The tribes in the north, the Bushmen, the Shiite rebels and Blotch-Stan are armed and some seek separation. During the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan, the Pakistani intelligence trained Afghanistan´s Taliban with the help and approval of the US, and let Pakistani Taliban help them also. After Pakistan aliened itself to the USA in its War on Terror, both Talibans fight against the Pakistani Army. The lesson is that a secular regime should not arm or train fanatics even if this serves its short-term aims. Securing the nuclear weapons is another problem that makes the army ready for internal moves at any price.
Finally yet importantly is the poverty problem. In both Pakistan and India, the different governments could not solve the poverty problem to achieve the secure levels that create stability. Whether is the Asian Giant India or in its rival Pakistan still there people ready for suicidal acts against their rivals after the poverty had badly stricken them and they think that suicidal acts might send them to paradise. The heavy population and the geography play in their favor against innocent people and governments.
The external security threats are no less serious than the internal dark picture. The geography of Pakistan makes its border difficult to control. It is surrounded by countries that have contradicting security views and hostility more than cooperation and friendship is the nature of the relations between them. India accuses Pakistan of supporting terrorism and Hammed Karazi of Afghanistan repeatedly declare that he would extend military operations against Taliban to the Pakistani Northern Provinces. Iran and Pakistan do not trust each other, and Iran supports the Afghanistan Shiites that fought against Sunni Fanatic Taliban before the American occupation of the country. Both countries accuse each other of supporting separatists and rebels.
The Neo-Cons see Pakistan an ideal country for creative chaos. It is the Eastern Region of their new Large Middle East. On the other hand, they need Pakistan more than any other country for the War on Terror. It would provide a good access for the logistics if Russia gave its back to NATO forces in Afghanistan. In the global energy strategy, it provides an ideal place for pipelines from Central Asian Oil to the Arab Sea especially now that the result of the confrontation between the West and Russia is still open.
During the Cold War, Pakistan was member in the Central Alliance. The Caucasus crisis makes stable Pakistan a vital subject for the Western Allies. The US might revive the Central Alliance if it decided to confront Russia in a Cold-War-II. On the long term, the American strategy sees Pakistan having a vital role to confront China and India also if the parliament of the later refused the US-Indian nuclear accords.
Therefore, if the new Pakistani President could not secure the country in few weeks the army would remove him. Recently a meeting between the American and the Pakistani military commandship was held. Most probably securing the country was the main if not the single issue. For the Americans, it would be easy to verbally condemn military coups and give excuses for cooperation for the sake of the War on Terror. Did Washington give the green light for the Army Commander to have the top post? I bet on this.