Global Changes and The Middle East
Ahmed Hany
July 06, 2008
Global Changes and the Mideast.
Ahmed Hany.
ahmedhany55@hotmail.com
The last World Economic Forum in Sharm city predicted three phenomena that will shape the world in the near future. The main political change is the rising Asian Powers. The second is the expansion of the telecommunication sectors. The third is the environmental changes that are demographic, energy crisis and food crisis.
The rising Asian powers will affect the Pax-Americana era, but whether the effect will be sudden or gradual is the question. The Russian and EU role will be the most vital to these rising Asian powers and to the US. Whether Russia and the EU will take a neutral path between the US and the rising powers or take sides, is a big question mark in Washington, Beijing.
Despite the Irish refusal of Lisbon Treaty, which is a blow to the unionists in Europe, the EU is still divided many cases as the Mediterranean Union, partnership of Turkey and the EU independent army. These divisions reflect a deeper rift in the EU intelligentsias over their future. In other words, they do not have a common consensus about being an independent global power or keeping the alliance with the US as a sole global power to confront China and other Asian powers together. In fact, the EU waits for Russia to decide so that their choice could be safer.
Russia sees both Europe and China pose threats. In the last century, it fought two world wars against European powers. It had many border clashes with China and the late US president Nixon turned down a proposal by his late Russian counterpart to use nuclear bombs and missiles against China. Strategic Russian thinking did not change after the Soviet era. Medevedv has kept Putin's strategies and polices. Russia said it clearly that it would make Ukraine a target for its nuclear missile if the ex-Soviet Republic joined NATO. It responded to Kosovo independence by aggressive steps in Abkhazia and it threatened Georgia if it joined the NATO. During the last NATO summit the US could not invite both countries to join, the alliance and the US froze its plans about the anti-missiles shield in the Check Republic and Poland.
There are clear signs that both Russia and the US agreed to cooperate. Putin said clearly that Russia will not succumb to American and Western pressure about its interests but at the same time, he agreed to provide NATO forces in Afghanistan with logistic support. When he was a president, his Prime Minister said that cooperation between Russia and the US is imminent.
The Russian choice forces the EU to be in alliance with the US and to have some sort of partnership with Russia. At the same time, the EU as a global power has to prove itself in containing the rising Asian powers. Sarkozy said that the Mediterranean Union would be a step to confront China and other Asian Powers.
It is clear that the US role as a sole power is in regression. It agreed about incentives to Iran to stop enrichment of Uranium. These incentives allow Iran to normalize its relations with the world and empower its ability to produce energy and food. The incentives include obligatory items for nuclear fuel producing countries to sell it to Iran. Iran is reluctant about the agreement not because enrichment itself but about the trust. Iran does not trust the West not to withdraw the offers due to some other causes like human rights after it would stop enrichment. It wants to have a deal with the US about its regional role, before the deal about its nuclear reactors, especially that the Syrian-Israeli negotiations that have chances to be fruitful would limit the Iranian role in Lebanon. Egyptian mediation between Israel and Hamas, the planed next steps between Palestinian factions to reunite them and the new proposed mediation about exchange of Palestinian prisoners for kidnapped Israeli solider Shallit will limit the Iranian role in Palestine. Iran fears that the United Arab Emirate may take serious steps towards liberating its three islands. Lately the Egyptian prominent writer Dr. Refaat El-Saied wrote about Arabstan and how the Arab League discussed the miserable situation of its people since 1964. He showed that this oil and gas rich region of 12 millions Arab speaking populations was annexed to Iran after its Shah kidnapped and executed its Emir in 1925. Most of its people live under poverty line. About three million Iraqi Shiite asked their government to close the Iranian embassy in Baghdad because of its harmful role in sectarian strife there.
The US after its problems in Iraq and Afghanistan allow regional forces to have a larger role. The Turkish role between Syria and Israel and the Egyptian role between Palestinians and Israelis beside its encouragement for Gulf and other Arab states to reopen embassies in Baghdad are the start. The US does not like and it will not allow a frank Chinese influence near oil and gas fields. However, in this phase it welcomes other powers to have roles like France in the Mediterranean, Turkey and Egypt in the Middle East and the Saudi Arabia in the Gulf. At the same time, it encourages Russia to have better relations with India and South Asia. It did not object the Russian arms sales of a billion to Indonesia its ally. It tries now to extend the Pax-Americana as longer as possible by more compromise with its allies and building a more powerful alliance to confront China. However, this will open a new era of a carrot and stick policies specially that food crises will hit the world badly. Did Israel delegations go to Ankara and Cairo as a response to their early prediction of these changes? Nevertheless, Pax-Americana, oil, confrontation with China will be the determinants of the American steps and perhaps the Russian and the EU steps as well, then come Israel, democracy, free trade, human rights or any other slogans of globalization that were badly and unfairly used during the last twenty years.
Israel now opened channels with India and its military cooperation with the Indians is forwarding. At the same time, it has military cooperation with China. It prepares itself to face the future and to play with the winner regardless of its name.
What did the Arabs do? Will we hear to excuses that global changes come as a surprise? Arab capitals should activate their policies and they at least should put base and red lines for their interests. We have to abandon the yes or no policies that ruined our interests. One wished that President Qaddafi when he refused the Mediterranean Union had said that some or even most of the ideas would need to be renegotiated. He said that we are not poor and we have the human and natural resources. He is right but he forgot that we have not the advancement and the technology needed to develop these resources and to educate these people.
For Books by the author, (A Tale Of Two Wars, a novel and The Devil Repents and Other Stories), please visit,
http://stores.lulu.com/ahmedhany
Ahmed Hany.
ahmedhany55@hotmail.com
The last World Economic Forum in Sharm city predicted three phenomena that will shape the world in the near future. The main political change is the rising Asian Powers. The second is the expansion of the telecommunication sectors. The third is the environmental changes that are demographic, energy crisis and food crisis.
The rising Asian powers will affect the Pax-Americana era, but whether the effect will be sudden or gradual is the question. The Russian and EU role will be the most vital to these rising Asian powers and to the US. Whether Russia and the EU will take a neutral path between the US and the rising powers or take sides, is a big question mark in Washington, Beijing.
Despite the Irish refusal of Lisbon Treaty, which is a blow to the unionists in Europe, the EU is still divided many cases as the Mediterranean Union, partnership of Turkey and the EU independent army. These divisions reflect a deeper rift in the EU intelligentsias over their future. In other words, they do not have a common consensus about being an independent global power or keeping the alliance with the US as a sole global power to confront China and other Asian powers together. In fact, the EU waits for Russia to decide so that their choice could be safer.
Russia sees both Europe and China pose threats. In the last century, it fought two world wars against European powers. It had many border clashes with China and the late US president Nixon turned down a proposal by his late Russian counterpart to use nuclear bombs and missiles against China. Strategic Russian thinking did not change after the Soviet era. Medevedv has kept Putin's strategies and polices. Russia said it clearly that it would make Ukraine a target for its nuclear missile if the ex-Soviet Republic joined NATO. It responded to Kosovo independence by aggressive steps in Abkhazia and it threatened Georgia if it joined the NATO. During the last NATO summit the US could not invite both countries to join, the alliance and the US froze its plans about the anti-missiles shield in the Check Republic and Poland.
There are clear signs that both Russia and the US agreed to cooperate. Putin said clearly that Russia will not succumb to American and Western pressure about its interests but at the same time, he agreed to provide NATO forces in Afghanistan with logistic support. When he was a president, his Prime Minister said that cooperation between Russia and the US is imminent.
The Russian choice forces the EU to be in alliance with the US and to have some sort of partnership with Russia. At the same time, the EU as a global power has to prove itself in containing the rising Asian powers. Sarkozy said that the Mediterranean Union would be a step to confront China and other Asian Powers.
It is clear that the US role as a sole power is in regression. It agreed about incentives to Iran to stop enrichment of Uranium. These incentives allow Iran to normalize its relations with the world and empower its ability to produce energy and food. The incentives include obligatory items for nuclear fuel producing countries to sell it to Iran. Iran is reluctant about the agreement not because enrichment itself but about the trust. Iran does not trust the West not to withdraw the offers due to some other causes like human rights after it would stop enrichment. It wants to have a deal with the US about its regional role, before the deal about its nuclear reactors, especially that the Syrian-Israeli negotiations that have chances to be fruitful would limit the Iranian role in Lebanon. Egyptian mediation between Israel and Hamas, the planed next steps between Palestinian factions to reunite them and the new proposed mediation about exchange of Palestinian prisoners for kidnapped Israeli solider Shallit will limit the Iranian role in Palestine. Iran fears that the United Arab Emirate may take serious steps towards liberating its three islands. Lately the Egyptian prominent writer Dr. Refaat El-Saied wrote about Arabstan and how the Arab League discussed the miserable situation of its people since 1964. He showed that this oil and gas rich region of 12 millions Arab speaking populations was annexed to Iran after its Shah kidnapped and executed its Emir in 1925. Most of its people live under poverty line. About three million Iraqi Shiite asked their government to close the Iranian embassy in Baghdad because of its harmful role in sectarian strife there.
The US after its problems in Iraq and Afghanistan allow regional forces to have a larger role. The Turkish role between Syria and Israel and the Egyptian role between Palestinians and Israelis beside its encouragement for Gulf and other Arab states to reopen embassies in Baghdad are the start. The US does not like and it will not allow a frank Chinese influence near oil and gas fields. However, in this phase it welcomes other powers to have roles like France in the Mediterranean, Turkey and Egypt in the Middle East and the Saudi Arabia in the Gulf. At the same time, it encourages Russia to have better relations with India and South Asia. It did not object the Russian arms sales of a billion to Indonesia its ally. It tries now to extend the Pax-Americana as longer as possible by more compromise with its allies and building a more powerful alliance to confront China. However, this will open a new era of a carrot and stick policies specially that food crises will hit the world badly. Did Israel delegations go to Ankara and Cairo as a response to their early prediction of these changes? Nevertheless, Pax-Americana, oil, confrontation with China will be the determinants of the American steps and perhaps the Russian and the EU steps as well, then come Israel, democracy, free trade, human rights or any other slogans of globalization that were badly and unfairly used during the last twenty years.
Israel now opened channels with India and its military cooperation with the Indians is forwarding. At the same time, it has military cooperation with China. It prepares itself to face the future and to play with the winner regardless of its name.
What did the Arabs do? Will we hear to excuses that global changes come as a surprise? Arab capitals should activate their policies and they at least should put base and red lines for their interests. We have to abandon the yes or no policies that ruined our interests. One wished that President Qaddafi when he refused the Mediterranean Union had said that some or even most of the ideas would need to be renegotiated. He said that we are not poor and we have the human and natural resources. He is right but he forgot that we have not the advancement and the technology needed to develop these resources and to educate these people.
For Books by the author, (A Tale Of Two Wars, a novel and The Devil Repents and Other Stories), please visit,
http://stores.lulu.com/ahmedhany