The Future of Iraq
Rauf Naqishbendi
June 04, 2008
When British Colonialists created what today is Iraq, they did so without consulting the Iraqi people and with complete disregard for the centuries-old ethnic and religious differences among the three major divisions that make up the country´s population.
Arabs and Kurds make up more than 95% of Iraq´s population. Kurds have been renouncing their subjugation to Arabs for centuries, while striving for independent statehood. The Arab population is divided between the majority Shiites and the Sunni Moslems. The Shiites and the Sunnis have been bitter enemies for more than fourteen centuries. The threads that make up the fabric of Iraq´s population, which has been living in various degrees of dissension and discord, are badly frayed. A majority of the Shiites, and Kurds express a desire to live independently and that may be the only viable solution to prevent further bloodshed and friction.
Iraq´s major power players, the Kurds and the Shiites, both possess armed militias. If they are subjected to military aggression, they will not hesitate to retaliate in full force. Sunni Muslims enlisted remnants of Saddam Hussein´s followers along with secretly enlisted members of al Qaeda. Before Saddam´s downfall, the Sunnis enjoyed their undisputed power monopoly, running Iraq since its inception. The Sunni´s tendency to monopolize power is inexorable. Their treatment of both Kurds and Shiites is infamous. Moreover, the lack of any historic or customary mutual sympathy between the Kurds and the Shiites, has rendered them incapable of uniting in any effective way, to combat the Sunnis.
Given this historic animosity between the three groups, Iraq cannot sustain its integrity as a merged nation. Military solutions to coerce enforcement of the status quo have failed miserably. A peaceful solution brought about by a diplomatic resolution that takes into account the wishes of the Iraqi people is the most logical direction. But Iraq´s destiny will not be secured if national inspiration is ignored and arrogant external forces impose their wills on the people.
The Iraqi power theater is dominated by groups with armed militia:
The Supreme Iraqi Islamic Council, is a fragile umbrella organization made up of various Shiite organizations. Anyone knowledgeable about the Arab world realizes harmony among the different factions is not business as usual. Nevertheless, the small organization has been joining hands with its big brother for three reasons: (1) the leadership of grand Ayatollah Sastani; (2) its weakness relative to the big brother; (3) and most importantly, the money, power, and prestige they have acquired under the current fraudulent system of Iraqi government, whereby Iraq´s oil revenue and U.S. aid remains in the hands of unscrupulous government officials.
Al-Sader group led by Muqtada Al-Sader is a notoriously dangerous organization, fully supported by Iran. Al Sadar has increased its popularity amongst both disgruntle Iraqi´s dissatisfied with their government, and elements opposed to American occupation. This faction poses the greatest danger to Iraq´s stability and American occupation.
The Kurdistan region has been ruled by two political organizations. Kurdish national interest has taken a backseat to self-interest pursued by its leaders. Kurdish leaders have relaxed their moral obligation and national exigency, in favor of indulging their insatiable appetite for money and prestige. The Kurds have demonstrated their discontent with their leaders., If the political leaders refuse to enact reforms, Kurds will be disenfranchised from their rights.
Civil war and ethnic cleansing have been brewing for some time. If the will of the people continues to be ignored, it will happen in three distinct and painful phases.
First, war would breakout between clashing Shiite powers until a single faction emerges. One can anticipate a bloody armed confrontation between Al-Sader and his rival, the Al-Bader militia. The two major cities of Baghdad and Basra, will become a center for their battlefield. Regardless of who wins the war, this conflict will tragically consume many lives with immense destruction of Iraq´s major cities.
Second, another horrific war will take place between the Sunnis and the Shiite. Recently, Al-Qada has been feeble, but as soon as they regroup, they will concentrate on turning Shiites against Sunnis. This will be a nasty regional war and other Arab countries may step in, supporting Sunnis for fear of Iranian domination in the region. Baghdad will take center stage in this conflict, as well, with additional ruin to the city.
Third, Arabs, whether Iraqis or others, oppose the idea of Kurdish statehood, viewing the Kurds as subservient. Arabs strongly agree on only two issues: first, Kurdistan is to remain a part of the Arab world, and second, the Jewish state must be annihilated. Kurdish demands to restore their lands (Kurkuk, Mosel), that were forcefully taken by Arabs during Saddam´s era, will cause uproar from Arab community. This will create an even greater civil war, one involving Kurds fighting Arabs. This is by far the most dangerous scenario, with the potential to entice Iran, Turkey and Syria to confront one another, causing a precarious situation that would threaten the stability of the entire region, and bring with it adverse global economic and political consequences.
The major catastrophe ahead for all Iraqis is the persistence of sustaining Iraq as one county. Doing so will result in Arabs in Iraq emerging as the dominant power. If this happens, all Kurdish current achievements will be vitiated, and Kurds once more will be subjected to Arab atrocities that will be perpetuated, and have the potential to surpass even what Saddam had done. This frightening prospect for Kurds should not be discounted. Kurdish leaders must put the interest of their people ahead of their own personal desire for power, prestige and money.
The United States, as Iraq´s occupying force, should plan forthwith a solution consistent with the current and historical facts. It is imperative that Washington acts proactively to cut its own losses and avert major human catastrophe, not only in Iraq, but in the region as a whole
Arabs and Kurds make up more than 95% of Iraq´s population. Kurds have been renouncing their subjugation to Arabs for centuries, while striving for independent statehood. The Arab population is divided between the majority Shiites and the Sunni Moslems. The Shiites and the Sunnis have been bitter enemies for more than fourteen centuries. The threads that make up the fabric of Iraq´s population, which has been living in various degrees of dissension and discord, are badly frayed. A majority of the Shiites, and Kurds express a desire to live independently and that may be the only viable solution to prevent further bloodshed and friction.
Iraq´s major power players, the Kurds and the Shiites, both possess armed militias. If they are subjected to military aggression, they will not hesitate to retaliate in full force. Sunni Muslims enlisted remnants of Saddam Hussein´s followers along with secretly enlisted members of al Qaeda. Before Saddam´s downfall, the Sunnis enjoyed their undisputed power monopoly, running Iraq since its inception. The Sunni´s tendency to monopolize power is inexorable. Their treatment of both Kurds and Shiites is infamous. Moreover, the lack of any historic or customary mutual sympathy between the Kurds and the Shiites, has rendered them incapable of uniting in any effective way, to combat the Sunnis.
Given this historic animosity between the three groups, Iraq cannot sustain its integrity as a merged nation. Military solutions to coerce enforcement of the status quo have failed miserably. A peaceful solution brought about by a diplomatic resolution that takes into account the wishes of the Iraqi people is the most logical direction. But Iraq´s destiny will not be secured if national inspiration is ignored and arrogant external forces impose their wills on the people.
The Iraqi power theater is dominated by groups with armed militia:
The Supreme Iraqi Islamic Council, is a fragile umbrella organization made up of various Shiite organizations. Anyone knowledgeable about the Arab world realizes harmony among the different factions is not business as usual. Nevertheless, the small organization has been joining hands with its big brother for three reasons: (1) the leadership of grand Ayatollah Sastani; (2) its weakness relative to the big brother; (3) and most importantly, the money, power, and prestige they have acquired under the current fraudulent system of Iraqi government, whereby Iraq´s oil revenue and U.S. aid remains in the hands of unscrupulous government officials.
Al-Sader group led by Muqtada Al-Sader is a notoriously dangerous organization, fully supported by Iran. Al Sadar has increased its popularity amongst both disgruntle Iraqi´s dissatisfied with their government, and elements opposed to American occupation. This faction poses the greatest danger to Iraq´s stability and American occupation.
The Kurdistan region has been ruled by two political organizations. Kurdish national interest has taken a backseat to self-interest pursued by its leaders. Kurdish leaders have relaxed their moral obligation and national exigency, in favor of indulging their insatiable appetite for money and prestige. The Kurds have demonstrated their discontent with their leaders., If the political leaders refuse to enact reforms, Kurds will be disenfranchised from their rights.
Civil war and ethnic cleansing have been brewing for some time. If the will of the people continues to be ignored, it will happen in three distinct and painful phases.
First, war would breakout between clashing Shiite powers until a single faction emerges. One can anticipate a bloody armed confrontation between Al-Sader and his rival, the Al-Bader militia. The two major cities of Baghdad and Basra, will become a center for their battlefield. Regardless of who wins the war, this conflict will tragically consume many lives with immense destruction of Iraq´s major cities.
Second, another horrific war will take place between the Sunnis and the Shiite. Recently, Al-Qada has been feeble, but as soon as they regroup, they will concentrate on turning Shiites against Sunnis. This will be a nasty regional war and other Arab countries may step in, supporting Sunnis for fear of Iranian domination in the region. Baghdad will take center stage in this conflict, as well, with additional ruin to the city.
Third, Arabs, whether Iraqis or others, oppose the idea of Kurdish statehood, viewing the Kurds as subservient. Arabs strongly agree on only two issues: first, Kurdistan is to remain a part of the Arab world, and second, the Jewish state must be annihilated. Kurdish demands to restore their lands (Kurkuk, Mosel), that were forcefully taken by Arabs during Saddam´s era, will cause uproar from Arab community. This will create an even greater civil war, one involving Kurds fighting Arabs. This is by far the most dangerous scenario, with the potential to entice Iran, Turkey and Syria to confront one another, causing a precarious situation that would threaten the stability of the entire region, and bring with it adverse global economic and political consequences.
The major catastrophe ahead for all Iraqis is the persistence of sustaining Iraq as one county. Doing so will result in Arabs in Iraq emerging as the dominant power. If this happens, all Kurdish current achievements will be vitiated, and Kurds once more will be subjected to Arab atrocities that will be perpetuated, and have the potential to surpass even what Saddam had done. This frightening prospect for Kurds should not be discounted. Kurdish leaders must put the interest of their people ahead of their own personal desire for power, prestige and money.
The United States, as Iraq´s occupying force, should plan forthwith a solution consistent with the current and historical facts. It is imperative that Washington acts proactively to cut its own losses and avert major human catastrophe, not only in Iraq, but in the region as a whole