Exit Musharraf, Enter Democracy
Rizwan Ghani
May 18, 2008
Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz PML (N) Group left the four-party coalition in center as the major coalition partner Pakistan People´s Party (PPPP)-late Benazir Bhutto´s party-failed to resolve constitutional standoff over fate of sixty judges from Supreme Court and High Courts including Chief Justice of Pakistan (CJP) in accordance to Murree Declaration.
Both parties are bound under Charter of Democracy (COD) to bar all those judges who take oath in dictator´s govt. COD stops such judges to be part of democratic govt´s. It was also decided in present case that sixty judges will be restored within thirty days of the formation of federal govt. However, despite concerted efforts, the coalition govt. has failed to restore judges. PML (N) has blamed PPPP for the failure.
Since, PML (N) had joined the coalition on one point agenda; restoration of judges as part of independence of judiciary to strengthen democracy and set precedent to permanently end martial laws in the country. PML (N) is therefore demanding return of judges to fulfill its end of promise to its voters.
Three martial laws have been imposed in Pakistan since 1947, its independence date. General Musharraf as chief of army staff imposed fourth martial law on Nov. 3, 2007 against his own government and stopped the judges to perform their duties including CJP. Some twelve judges of apex court including CJP and their families were unlawfully kept under house arrest for some 145 days. The Musharraf regime however denies judges house arrest claims despite round the clock print and electronic media coverage showing the same.
The resignations of nine PML (N) members holding federal cabinet posts has come at a time when country´s fragile economy is braving depreciating Rupee (local currency) leaving 74% of public already struggling below 2 dollar a day to face growing inflation, 12-16 hour daily energy blackouts and skyrocketing food and utility prices as number of daily suicides climb. Reportedly, ten women ended their lives on May 13 due to poverty and unemployment. The failure to end constitutional crisis has deepened political uncertainty.
The crisis started on March 9, 2007 when Musharraf sacked CJP on corruption charges, which sparked countrywide lawyers´ movement. The charges failed to stick and CJP returned to his post. The sacking of CJP initiated a chain of events whose climax was Musharraf´s disputed nomination as president of Pakistan.
It is opined that Musharraf fearing end of his controversial control on country as president by the Supreme Court instead pre-empted the bluff by imposing marital law and sacked country´s Supreme Courts, High Courts including CJP to secure his nomination as president. The independent legal experts dispute validity of his presidency because Musharraf amended the constitution to secure his nomination.
It inflamed country´s legal fraternity, which with the support of civil society, media, political parties and public resorted to protests for independence of judiciary and return of judges for strengthening of democracy.
PML (N), that contested the Feb. 18, 08 national election on judges issue has resigned from the cabinet because party failed to uphold its election promise of restoring the judges. PML (N) with some 92 seats in 342 seat National Assembly http://www.ecp.gov.pk/index.html is the second largest majority party following PPPP with 120 seats.
It has left PPPP in a fix because if it fails to address judges issue in coming days it will hurt party´s grassroots support and if it reinstates ousted judges Musharraf´s future will be at stake because it is opined that a pending petition could well be upheld by the apex court bringing an end to dictator´s nine year run in power, which could in turn be a colossal blow to NATO Afghan mission and the Republicans who as widely speculated within Pakistan are depending on Musharraf to win the upcoming US presidential election.
It leaves PPPP in a devil and deep sea situation because it has returned to power under a national reconciliation ordinance NRO deal which allowed scrapping of corruption cases against the politicians including PPPP leadership and co-chairman Asif Ali Zardari. It is opined that politicians fear return of ousted judges including CJP. It is widely believed they will scrap the alleged US backed deal which is also pending in the Supreme Court. It will have severe consequences for the party and the coalition led govt.
The junior leadership of PML (N) is repeatedly reminding the public about the shady deal but for the time being senior leadership is mute over the issue but with growing voices in opposition parties it is opined that it is only matter of time that PML (N) top leadership will join the chorus.
This brings PPPP´s future strategy under spotlight as political pundits project different options. However, it is opined that the current developments have left little doubt that Musharraf´s days are numbered for following reasons:
1) PPPP will choose independence of judiciary over Musharraf to protect its precious support at the grassroots because it was sympathy vote due to Benazir´s unfortunate murder that helped PPPP win majority in the lower house. It is widely believed that minus sympathy votes PPPP would have struggled in the elections.
2) PPPP will do its best to bring the PML (N) back to power because if PPPP uses pro-Musharraf politicians to stay in power in the center it will be accused of subverting 18 Feb. public mandate that voted against pro-Musharraf govt. in which some 22 sitting federal ministers lost elections.
3) PML (N) by supporting restoration of judges and independence of judiciary for strengthening of democracy has taken a principled stand thereby bringing country´s largest liberal and pro-democracy party under immense pressure to protect judiciary; one of the pillars of democracy. They are left with no choice but to support judiciary over dictator.
4) Restoration of independence of judiciary is also important for PPPP to maintain support of intelligentsia, legal fraternity and media. The public fed up with corrupt state machinery, nepotism and blatant violations of constitutional and civil liberties and human rights across board supports expansion and strengthening of judiciary at grassroots for quick dispensation of justice.
The public support for judiciary brings American policies in the eye of the storm. PPPP has been unable to amicably settle the judges issue either to support Musharraf as part of NRO or impeach him in March 2009 after Senate election, which is presently packed with pro-Musharraf politicians. Whatever the reason, average Pakistani firmly believes that Bush´s alleged support for Musharraf has brought the country to a standstill over judges issue. It is therefore opined that PPPP may not be able to sustain the pressure until March 2009. It is therefore argued that all concerned will have to decide between people of Pakistan or a dictator.
The by media reports that UK and US pushing PPPP to make deal with Musharraf http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2008518story_18-5-2008_pg7_9 only make matters worse. The pro-democracy forces, legal community, civil societies and public are condemning this naked support for Musharraf, which they believe is blocking country´s return to democracy. It reflects west´s hypocritical double standards towards democracy, strengthening of democratic institutions and respect for rule of law. Yunus Samad a visiting intellectual from UK in his lecture voiced feelings of public. He said that Musharraf was doing exactly what the US government wanted him to do, and that Pakistan meant nothing to American leaders, adding, "They (Americans) are all US nationals and its America that is important to them and nothing else".
http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2008518story_18-5-2008_pg7_45.
The skeptics however believe that Pakistani judges´ issue following 9 US attorney´s issue judges issue will not be solved in accordance to law of the land. Reportedly, Bush administration has refused to hand over documents about firing of federal prosecutors to House Judiciary Committee and want an out of court settlement http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5hq-4ZBiiUcq8IsbGQ0SHW04WS4kgD90ISO082 . All this is not bad news for democracy within US but will permanently damage America´s image in the Pakistani public that is supporting independence of judiciary in Pakistan for good governance, end of corruption and return to meritocracy http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2008518story_18-5-2008_pg7_29. People of Pakistan care little about of broader picture.
Finally, contrary to the general perception it can argued that clock has started ticking for Musharraf. In all probability to save its political support PPPP will sooner or later ´sacrifice´ Musharraf because at stake are party´s future, support at grassroots and democracy. Similarly, PML (N) is likely to stiffen its stand on return of judges and Musharraf´s departure. The devil however lies in the details: 1) It will therefore be interesting to see if the return of judges will be in isolation or as part of a tradeoff over NRO. 2) Timing of Musharraf´s departure-it could be between now and 2012. 3) How PPPP walks the walk over Bush´s war against terrorism under the watchful opposition? Given the efforts, interests and support of west the possibility of exit Musharraf, enter democracy might sound overly optimistic but then but then politics is the art of possible. However, against all odds it is hoped that democracy will be given a chance for greater good of all concerned including judiciary, public and friends of Pakistan.
Both parties are bound under Charter of Democracy (COD) to bar all those judges who take oath in dictator´s govt. COD stops such judges to be part of democratic govt´s. It was also decided in present case that sixty judges will be restored within thirty days of the formation of federal govt. However, despite concerted efforts, the coalition govt. has failed to restore judges. PML (N) has blamed PPPP for the failure.
Since, PML (N) had joined the coalition on one point agenda; restoration of judges as part of independence of judiciary to strengthen democracy and set precedent to permanently end martial laws in the country. PML (N) is therefore demanding return of judges to fulfill its end of promise to its voters.
Three martial laws have been imposed in Pakistan since 1947, its independence date. General Musharraf as chief of army staff imposed fourth martial law on Nov. 3, 2007 against his own government and stopped the judges to perform their duties including CJP. Some twelve judges of apex court including CJP and their families were unlawfully kept under house arrest for some 145 days. The Musharraf regime however denies judges house arrest claims despite round the clock print and electronic media coverage showing the same.
The resignations of nine PML (N) members holding federal cabinet posts has come at a time when country´s fragile economy is braving depreciating Rupee (local currency) leaving 74% of public already struggling below 2 dollar a day to face growing inflation, 12-16 hour daily energy blackouts and skyrocketing food and utility prices as number of daily suicides climb. Reportedly, ten women ended their lives on May 13 due to poverty and unemployment. The failure to end constitutional crisis has deepened political uncertainty.
The crisis started on March 9, 2007 when Musharraf sacked CJP on corruption charges, which sparked countrywide lawyers´ movement. The charges failed to stick and CJP returned to his post. The sacking of CJP initiated a chain of events whose climax was Musharraf´s disputed nomination as president of Pakistan.
It is opined that Musharraf fearing end of his controversial control on country as president by the Supreme Court instead pre-empted the bluff by imposing marital law and sacked country´s Supreme Courts, High Courts including CJP to secure his nomination as president. The independent legal experts dispute validity of his presidency because Musharraf amended the constitution to secure his nomination.
It inflamed country´s legal fraternity, which with the support of civil society, media, political parties and public resorted to protests for independence of judiciary and return of judges for strengthening of democracy.
PML (N), that contested the Feb. 18, 08 national election on judges issue has resigned from the cabinet because party failed to uphold its election promise of restoring the judges. PML (N) with some 92 seats in 342 seat National Assembly http://www.ecp.gov.pk/index.html is the second largest majority party following PPPP with 120 seats.
It has left PPPP in a fix because if it fails to address judges issue in coming days it will hurt party´s grassroots support and if it reinstates ousted judges Musharraf´s future will be at stake because it is opined that a pending petition could well be upheld by the apex court bringing an end to dictator´s nine year run in power, which could in turn be a colossal blow to NATO Afghan mission and the Republicans who as widely speculated within Pakistan are depending on Musharraf to win the upcoming US presidential election.
It leaves PPPP in a devil and deep sea situation because it has returned to power under a national reconciliation ordinance NRO deal which allowed scrapping of corruption cases against the politicians including PPPP leadership and co-chairman Asif Ali Zardari. It is opined that politicians fear return of ousted judges including CJP. It is widely believed they will scrap the alleged US backed deal which is also pending in the Supreme Court. It will have severe consequences for the party and the coalition led govt.
The junior leadership of PML (N) is repeatedly reminding the public about the shady deal but for the time being senior leadership is mute over the issue but with growing voices in opposition parties it is opined that it is only matter of time that PML (N) top leadership will join the chorus.
This brings PPPP´s future strategy under spotlight as political pundits project different options. However, it is opined that the current developments have left little doubt that Musharraf´s days are numbered for following reasons:
1) PPPP will choose independence of judiciary over Musharraf to protect its precious support at the grassroots because it was sympathy vote due to Benazir´s unfortunate murder that helped PPPP win majority in the lower house. It is widely believed that minus sympathy votes PPPP would have struggled in the elections.
2) PPPP will do its best to bring the PML (N) back to power because if PPPP uses pro-Musharraf politicians to stay in power in the center it will be accused of subverting 18 Feb. public mandate that voted against pro-Musharraf govt. in which some 22 sitting federal ministers lost elections.
3) PML (N) by supporting restoration of judges and independence of judiciary for strengthening of democracy has taken a principled stand thereby bringing country´s largest liberal and pro-democracy party under immense pressure to protect judiciary; one of the pillars of democracy. They are left with no choice but to support judiciary over dictator.
4) Restoration of independence of judiciary is also important for PPPP to maintain support of intelligentsia, legal fraternity and media. The public fed up with corrupt state machinery, nepotism and blatant violations of constitutional and civil liberties and human rights across board supports expansion and strengthening of judiciary at grassroots for quick dispensation of justice.
The public support for judiciary brings American policies in the eye of the storm. PPPP has been unable to amicably settle the judges issue either to support Musharraf as part of NRO or impeach him in March 2009 after Senate election, which is presently packed with pro-Musharraf politicians. Whatever the reason, average Pakistani firmly believes that Bush´s alleged support for Musharraf has brought the country to a standstill over judges issue. It is therefore opined that PPPP may not be able to sustain the pressure until March 2009. It is therefore argued that all concerned will have to decide between people of Pakistan or a dictator.
The by media reports that UK and US pushing PPPP to make deal with Musharraf http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2008518story_18-5-2008_pg7_9 only make matters worse. The pro-democracy forces, legal community, civil societies and public are condemning this naked support for Musharraf, which they believe is blocking country´s return to democracy. It reflects west´s hypocritical double standards towards democracy, strengthening of democratic institutions and respect for rule of law. Yunus Samad a visiting intellectual from UK in his lecture voiced feelings of public. He said that Musharraf was doing exactly what the US government wanted him to do, and that Pakistan meant nothing to American leaders, adding, "They (Americans) are all US nationals and its America that is important to them and nothing else".
http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2008518story_18-5-2008_pg7_45.
The skeptics however believe that Pakistani judges´ issue following 9 US attorney´s issue judges issue will not be solved in accordance to law of the land. Reportedly, Bush administration has refused to hand over documents about firing of federal prosecutors to House Judiciary Committee and want an out of court settlement http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5hq-4ZBiiUcq8IsbGQ0SHW04WS4kgD90ISO082 . All this is not bad news for democracy within US but will permanently damage America´s image in the Pakistani public that is supporting independence of judiciary in Pakistan for good governance, end of corruption and return to meritocracy http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2008518story_18-5-2008_pg7_29. People of Pakistan care little about of broader picture.
Finally, contrary to the general perception it can argued that clock has started ticking for Musharraf. In all probability to save its political support PPPP will sooner or later ´sacrifice´ Musharraf because at stake are party´s future, support at grassroots and democracy. Similarly, PML (N) is likely to stiffen its stand on return of judges and Musharraf´s departure. The devil however lies in the details: 1) It will therefore be interesting to see if the return of judges will be in isolation or as part of a tradeoff over NRO. 2) Timing of Musharraf´s departure-it could be between now and 2012. 3) How PPPP walks the walk over Bush´s war against terrorism under the watchful opposition? Given the efforts, interests and support of west the possibility of exit Musharraf, enter democracy might sound overly optimistic but then but then politics is the art of possible. However, against all odds it is hoped that democracy will be given a chance for greater good of all concerned including judiciary, public and friends of Pakistan.