Democratic power struggle intensifies in Nepal to form a new government
Surya B. Prasai
May 11, 2008
Democratic power struggle erupts in Nepal to form a new government
Surya B Prasai
With the Nepal Constituent Assembly Poll results all in, and the Maoists commanding a simple majority, several political parties in Nepal have started hinting at breaking the political ice in search of a new and broader coalition deal. A recent meeting in Kathmandu between the former Seven Party Alliance and the other 18 newly emerged political parties showed broad consensus on the need for a coalition government headed by the winner. Though some such as Bimlendra Nidhi from NC and Jhalanath Khanal from UML were outspoken on the need for a republic to be born from the first CA sitting, other veteran political leaders including PM Koirala appear more introspective, knowing that the Republican wave could sweep NC off the ruling carpet. The republican agenda was originally floated by the Maoists though they have not defined it clearly, seeking new alliances every day from royalists to democratic socialists.
Recently PM Koirala has bounced back after the CA Poll, whereupon he has accelerated media appearances lambasting his own senior cadres and other political leaders for going to the people with the īwrongī agenda which led to NCīs massive defeat. Thus, contrary to the earlier NC statement that Prime Minister Girija Prasad Koirala would contemplate retiring after the CA Poll, the grand old man of Nepali politics has been seen on TV displaying new vigor, even throwing a robust tea party at the PMīs official residence at Baluwatar the other day for the 25 political parties.
Koirala has now assured his supporters and Kathmandu based diplomatic corps that he would like to continue with his active leadership despite partial health restrictions. According to Baluwatar sources, Mr. Koirala has been discussing a new NC national integration theory, whereby he is seeking to get all political sides, including the royalists, fully reconciled on national affairs. However, those attending the event to honor the new Constituent Assembly members felt there is still much ground breaking required from NCīs side, since the Maoists have also thrown their political gambit to woo the same vital power sources, namely those who support the King and those who consider themselves close to Nepalīs disciplined forces, which theoretically is neutral in its bearing, but whose cooperation will be required by any future government to maintain law, order and national security. The Maoists are also avoiding ideological polarization with former SPA constituents at this moment since they need to get a two thirds majority.
Thus, while Prachanda has clearly and repeatedly hinted that he will head the next Nepal Government after the first sitting of the Constituent Assembly elections, Prime Minister Koirala has butted back with his own leadership claim, which he believes will be fairer, based on fulfilling the peopleīs popular aspirations, and not just hinged to one political partyīs demeanor. Despite NCīs recent inner and external consultations, including with diplomats from India and China, not much seems to be in the offing except the resignation of Khum Bahadur Khadka, who cited his new differences with top NC leadership a few days back. Khadka was a former Home Minister and close political aide of former Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba, NCīs number two, but is now out of NC for good.
Similarly, UMLīs Madhav Kumar Nepal and Amrit Kumar Bohara are known to be in favor of a principled stand in not bowing themselves to a Maoist led government, rather seeking equal distance between all political parties, not just the Maoists. Shanker Pokharel from UML stated to the Kathmandu media that his party would not join the next government since one fourth of the votes that the Maoists obtained during the April 10 CA election were based on expectations that they would do something new and better than other parties. "Therefore, we need to let the Maoists run the government. After that we can attract that section of the mass toward us," he stated sarcastically, predicting the Maoists future failure. However inside sources within CPN-UML stated that that their top leaders want to stay outside the next government because they donīt want to be actively seen supporting Maoist decision makers, knowing that framing a new constitution is going to be even more futile than the previous one.
Also according to UML sources, in the recent Central Committee meeting, their overall thinking was only theoretically aimed at power sharing of the state institutions, whereby, the major posts would be held by the three major parties, that is president, prime minister and chairperson of the Constituent Assembly (CA). But in reality this is unlikely since UML considers itself out of the current power loop. UML leaders have been emphasizing during the ongoing Central Committee meeting, that there is a definite need to amend a provision of the interim constitution which will require two-thirds majority to form and oust a government, they are pushing for a simple majority clause. UML seems to be eager to let the Maoists assume power so that they can immediately start launching new verbal attacks and pulling the Maoist led coalition government down before it can even attempt to go for constitutional changes.
In the recent meeting between Indian Ambassador to Nepal, Mr. Rakesh Sood and Prachanda, the discussion focused on mutual power sharing, whereby the NC would be given the Presidency, the Maoists the PMīs position, and the UML would Head the Constituent Assembly. However Mr. Sood is known to have diplomatically responded in learning about the proposal that whatever the Nepali political parties decide, it would be acceptable to India. Prachanda also hinted during the discussion on giving Mr. Koirala some honorific title, like Senior Minister, but not with heavy political responsibilities. It could be akin to Mr. Lee Kuan Yewīs status in Singapore, according to some Nepali political analysts, but not likely the President.
An influential factor in the current power equation are the Terai based parties, which appear to be in no mood to compromise their new found political status, having bagged the fourth largest number of seats in the CA Poll. According to Chairman Upendra Yadav of the Madhesi Peopleīs Rights Forum (MPRF) in a proposal floated last week, only the new government has the right to discuss the state structure. MPRF has put forward a proposal to amend the present Interim Constitution to remove the Prime Minister whereby the current CA can elect the next PM. Yadav is also of the view that only the next sworn government can nominate the 26 members for the CA, recently reaffirmed by Nepalīs Chief Justice as being the only legal option.
The latest political analysis from Kathmandu, therefore, suggests that Prachanda will most likely head the next government as Prime Minister, after which the CA Poll will have to decide on two major issues: one, the formulation of a new constitution, including reviewing all previous ones to see where power sharing went wrong; and two, decide on the future state, whether Nepalis want to retain monarchy or else go for a federal republic structure in the end. Prachanda has already stated that the present government is a 'caretaker' one after the Election Commission announced the CA Poll results last week. However, Nepalīs political parties and free press assert Nepal needs a new PM after the CA. The ideal choice of candidate however remains a Nepali political mystery.
Surya B Prasai
With the Nepal Constituent Assembly Poll results all in, and the Maoists commanding a simple majority, several political parties in Nepal have started hinting at breaking the political ice in search of a new and broader coalition deal. A recent meeting in Kathmandu between the former Seven Party Alliance and the other 18 newly emerged political parties showed broad consensus on the need for a coalition government headed by the winner. Though some such as Bimlendra Nidhi from NC and Jhalanath Khanal from UML were outspoken on the need for a republic to be born from the first CA sitting, other veteran political leaders including PM Koirala appear more introspective, knowing that the Republican wave could sweep NC off the ruling carpet. The republican agenda was originally floated by the Maoists though they have not defined it clearly, seeking new alliances every day from royalists to democratic socialists.
Recently PM Koirala has bounced back after the CA Poll, whereupon he has accelerated media appearances lambasting his own senior cadres and other political leaders for going to the people with the īwrongī agenda which led to NCīs massive defeat. Thus, contrary to the earlier NC statement that Prime Minister Girija Prasad Koirala would contemplate retiring after the CA Poll, the grand old man of Nepali politics has been seen on TV displaying new vigor, even throwing a robust tea party at the PMīs official residence at Baluwatar the other day for the 25 political parties.
Koirala has now assured his supporters and Kathmandu based diplomatic corps that he would like to continue with his active leadership despite partial health restrictions. According to Baluwatar sources, Mr. Koirala has been discussing a new NC national integration theory, whereby he is seeking to get all political sides, including the royalists, fully reconciled on national affairs. However, those attending the event to honor the new Constituent Assembly members felt there is still much ground breaking required from NCīs side, since the Maoists have also thrown their political gambit to woo the same vital power sources, namely those who support the King and those who consider themselves close to Nepalīs disciplined forces, which theoretically is neutral in its bearing, but whose cooperation will be required by any future government to maintain law, order and national security. The Maoists are also avoiding ideological polarization with former SPA constituents at this moment since they need to get a two thirds majority.
Thus, while Prachanda has clearly and repeatedly hinted that he will head the next Nepal Government after the first sitting of the Constituent Assembly elections, Prime Minister Koirala has butted back with his own leadership claim, which he believes will be fairer, based on fulfilling the peopleīs popular aspirations, and not just hinged to one political partyīs demeanor. Despite NCīs recent inner and external consultations, including with diplomats from India and China, not much seems to be in the offing except the resignation of Khum Bahadur Khadka, who cited his new differences with top NC leadership a few days back. Khadka was a former Home Minister and close political aide of former Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba, NCīs number two, but is now out of NC for good.
Similarly, UMLīs Madhav Kumar Nepal and Amrit Kumar Bohara are known to be in favor of a principled stand in not bowing themselves to a Maoist led government, rather seeking equal distance between all political parties, not just the Maoists. Shanker Pokharel from UML stated to the Kathmandu media that his party would not join the next government since one fourth of the votes that the Maoists obtained during the April 10 CA election were based on expectations that they would do something new and better than other parties. "Therefore, we need to let the Maoists run the government. After that we can attract that section of the mass toward us," he stated sarcastically, predicting the Maoists future failure. However inside sources within CPN-UML stated that that their top leaders want to stay outside the next government because they donīt want to be actively seen supporting Maoist decision makers, knowing that framing a new constitution is going to be even more futile than the previous one.
Also according to UML sources, in the recent Central Committee meeting, their overall thinking was only theoretically aimed at power sharing of the state institutions, whereby, the major posts would be held by the three major parties, that is president, prime minister and chairperson of the Constituent Assembly (CA). But in reality this is unlikely since UML considers itself out of the current power loop. UML leaders have been emphasizing during the ongoing Central Committee meeting, that there is a definite need to amend a provision of the interim constitution which will require two-thirds majority to form and oust a government, they are pushing for a simple majority clause. UML seems to be eager to let the Maoists assume power so that they can immediately start launching new verbal attacks and pulling the Maoist led coalition government down before it can even attempt to go for constitutional changes.
In the recent meeting between Indian Ambassador to Nepal, Mr. Rakesh Sood and Prachanda, the discussion focused on mutual power sharing, whereby the NC would be given the Presidency, the Maoists the PMīs position, and the UML would Head the Constituent Assembly. However Mr. Sood is known to have diplomatically responded in learning about the proposal that whatever the Nepali political parties decide, it would be acceptable to India. Prachanda also hinted during the discussion on giving Mr. Koirala some honorific title, like Senior Minister, but not with heavy political responsibilities. It could be akin to Mr. Lee Kuan Yewīs status in Singapore, according to some Nepali political analysts, but not likely the President.
An influential factor in the current power equation are the Terai based parties, which appear to be in no mood to compromise their new found political status, having bagged the fourth largest number of seats in the CA Poll. According to Chairman Upendra Yadav of the Madhesi Peopleīs Rights Forum (MPRF) in a proposal floated last week, only the new government has the right to discuss the state structure. MPRF has put forward a proposal to amend the present Interim Constitution to remove the Prime Minister whereby the current CA can elect the next PM. Yadav is also of the view that only the next sworn government can nominate the 26 members for the CA, recently reaffirmed by Nepalīs Chief Justice as being the only legal option.
The latest political analysis from Kathmandu, therefore, suggests that Prachanda will most likely head the next government as Prime Minister, after which the CA Poll will have to decide on two major issues: one, the formulation of a new constitution, including reviewing all previous ones to see where power sharing went wrong; and two, decide on the future state, whether Nepalis want to retain monarchy or else go for a federal republic structure in the end. Prachanda has already stated that the present government is a 'caretaker' one after the Election Commission announced the CA Poll results last week. However, Nepalīs political parties and free press assert Nepal needs a new PM after the CA. The ideal choice of candidate however remains a Nepali political mystery.