Implication of Iran´s President Mahmud Ahmadinejad´s visit to South Asia
Madhavi Bhasin
April 29, 2008
Mahmud Ahmadinejad has been the prime focus of the U.S. State Department since he became the President of Iran in 2005. The activities and speeches of the Iranian President are constantly put under the scanner by the Bush administration. A less published, but prime cause of concern for the Bush administration could be the three nation trip of President Ahmadinejad to South Asia culminating on 28th April. The U.S. has been attempting to isolate Iran on the issue of uranium enrichment. Despite the efforts of the U.S. government the regional linkages of Iran have strengthened in the recent months. The Iranian President had addressed the Gulf Cooperation Council in December 2007 and made official visits to Saudi Arabia and Egypt. France and Switzerland have gone ahead with signing energy deals with Iran. The recent visit to South Asia signifies the expanding influence of Iran and demonstrates that the economic rationale rather than the proliferation threat determines the foreign policy choices for most states.
The South Asian tour is of primary importance for Iran, not only in terms of consolidating its influence in the region but has crucial economic manifestations for Iran. The Iran-Pakistan-India (IPI) Gas pipeline tops the agenda of talks between Iran, Pakistan and India. The IPI is a 2,775 Km long pipeline for delivering natural gas from Iran to India through Pakistan. Concerns regarding gas pricing, financing the project and security of the pipeline infrastructure have hindered tangible progress on proposed pipeline. The visit by President Ahmadinejad is expected to address these concerns and concretize the proposals. The U.S. has tried to wean away India and Pakistan from gas pipeline project with Iran by supporting the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan- Pakistan- India pipeline project. India and Pakistan are strategic partners of the U.S. in the counter-terrorism and non-proliferation campaign. Hence the growing friendship of the two South Asian allies to Iran, which happens to be a part of the U.S., conceived ´axis of evil´ has interesting strategic repercussions. Pakistani leaders have assured support for Iran to develop nuclear energy for peaceful purposes. The democratic government of Pakistan is asserting its independence from the U.S. in making the foreign policy choices. India had also protested against the advice from the U.S. on Iran by stating that no third party should direct the conduct of bilateral relations between Iran and India. Going beyond India and Pakistan, President Ahmadinejad has managed to provide a strategic depth to Iran´s relations with South Asia by consolidating ties with Sri Lanka. Iran is expected to fund the Uma Oya power project in Sri Lanka and also make investments in Sri Lanka´s oil refineries.
For the U.S. any positive movement on the IPI would be a diplomatic disaster. Hence in the coming days the U.S. is expected to increase pressure on India and Pakistan, while launching another round of allegations against Iran. The best manifestation of this policy is the report by the U.S. Ambassador Zalmay Kahlilzad to the U.N. on Iran´s efforts to destabilize Iraq discussed on 28th April. The success or failure of the IPI talks will have wider implications for the future alignment of strategic forces. More significantly, the Iran – U.S. tug of war over the IPI will demonstrate the third world and first world diplomatic deftness.
The South Asian tour is of primary importance for Iran, not only in terms of consolidating its influence in the region but has crucial economic manifestations for Iran. The Iran-Pakistan-India (IPI) Gas pipeline tops the agenda of talks between Iran, Pakistan and India. The IPI is a 2,775 Km long pipeline for delivering natural gas from Iran to India through Pakistan. Concerns regarding gas pricing, financing the project and security of the pipeline infrastructure have hindered tangible progress on proposed pipeline. The visit by President Ahmadinejad is expected to address these concerns and concretize the proposals. The U.S. has tried to wean away India and Pakistan from gas pipeline project with Iran by supporting the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan- Pakistan- India pipeline project. India and Pakistan are strategic partners of the U.S. in the counter-terrorism and non-proliferation campaign. Hence the growing friendship of the two South Asian allies to Iran, which happens to be a part of the U.S., conceived ´axis of evil´ has interesting strategic repercussions. Pakistani leaders have assured support for Iran to develop nuclear energy for peaceful purposes. The democratic government of Pakistan is asserting its independence from the U.S. in making the foreign policy choices. India had also protested against the advice from the U.S. on Iran by stating that no third party should direct the conduct of bilateral relations between Iran and India. Going beyond India and Pakistan, President Ahmadinejad has managed to provide a strategic depth to Iran´s relations with South Asia by consolidating ties with Sri Lanka. Iran is expected to fund the Uma Oya power project in Sri Lanka and also make investments in Sri Lanka´s oil refineries.
For the U.S. any positive movement on the IPI would be a diplomatic disaster. Hence in the coming days the U.S. is expected to increase pressure on India and Pakistan, while launching another round of allegations against Iran. The best manifestation of this policy is the report by the U.S. Ambassador Zalmay Kahlilzad to the U.N. on Iran´s efforts to destabilize Iraq discussed on 28th April. The success or failure of the IPI talks will have wider implications for the future alignment of strategic forces. More significantly, the Iran – U.S. tug of war over the IPI will demonstrate the third world and first world diplomatic deftness.