No American Security Guarantees for Macedonia
Sam Vaknin Ph.D.
April 07, 2008
On the strength of a Greek veto, Macedonia did not receive an invitation to join NATO, while Albania and Croatia, the two other members of the Adriatic Charter Group did.
As partial compensation, the USA may sign a "technical-military" agreement with Macedonia, but it will NOT include "security guarantees".
Why so?
1. Security guarantees are granted exclusively in the wake of a war or a conflict and as a means to ascertain the implementation of an agreed settlement between the adversaries (e.g., a ceasefire or a peace agreement).
Excellent introduction to security guarantees
http://www.beyondintractability.org/essay/security_guarantees/
2. Security guarantees are granted in the framework of an international treaty. Such a treaty must be approved by 80 members of the Senate. There is no chance that Macedonia will garner such support in Congress. The Greek lobby is too strong and Macedonia is too inconsequential and immaterial to the geopolitical and military interests of the USA.
How the US signs Treaties and Agreements
http://www.llrx.com/features/ustreaty.htm
So, what will likely happen?
1. The USA will, perhaps, sign a technical-military agreement with Macedonia. Such agreements are very common, mean little, and constitute NO GUARANTEE to the signatories' security. Even Serbia has a technical-military agreement with NATO!
2. The USA will then pressure Macedonia into changing its name and entering NATO.
In effect, technically, Macedonia has RECEIVED AN INVITATION to join NATO in the Bucharest Summit. But the invitation is both conditional upon the resolution of the name issue and suspended until the dispute is resolved.
The Economics of Military Bases
http://samvak.tripod.com/pp145.html
EXAMPLES OF US SECURITY GUARANTEES
US security guarantees to Israel
http://www.mfa.gov.il/mfa/peace%20process/guide%20to%20the%20peace%20process/us-israel%20memorandum%20of%20agreement
US security guarantees to Japan (multiple agreements)
http://www.yale.edu/lawweb/avalon/diplomacy/japan/japan001.htm
http://en.wikisource.org/wiki/Treaty_of_Mutual_Cooperation_and_Security_between_Japan_and_the_United_States_of_America
http://www.learner.org/channel/workshops/primarysources/coldwar/docs/usjapan.html
US-UK Mutual Defence Agreement
http://www.basicint.org/nuclear/1958MDA.htm
Other US security guarantees
Inter-American Treaty of Reciprocal Assistance
http://www.oas.org/juridico/english/Treaties/b-29.html
Mutual Defense Treaty (US-Philippines)
https://www.mfp.usmc.mil/TeamApp/SJA/Topics/20051103095105/Philippines%20Mutual%20Defense%20Treaty.pdf
US Bilateral Treaties and Other Agreements
http://www.state.gov/documents/organization/83046.pdf
THE CASE OF ISRAEL
USA REFUSES to give Israel security guarantees 1963:
http://www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/jsource/US-Israel/FRUS9_20_63.html
Israel: U.S. Foreign Assistance
http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/mideast/IB85066.pdf
http://www.jcpa.org/brief/brief3-21.htm
http://www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/jsource/Peace/clintplan.html
4. Israel's Security
Clinton's commitment to Israel's security needs included a huge caveat. Security guarantees to Israel, according to the Clinton Parameters, "need not and should not come at the expense of Palestinian sovereignty, or interfere with Palestinian territorial integrity." For example, if Israel needed to retain an early-warning station on a West Bank hilltop, this principle could be used to preclude an Israeli claim. Essentially, it placed Palestinian national sensitivities above Israeli security needs. In contrast, in the Gaza Strip and the West Bank, Bush allows for Israel to continue to control airspace, territorial waters, and land passages, "pending agreements or other arrangements." This includes continuing Israeli control of the Philadelphia corridor between Gaza and Egyptian Sinai.
http://www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/jsource/US-Israel/MOUs.html#Security
Security & Defense
July 23, 1952 — Agreement relating to mutual defense assistance.
October 23, 1975 — Agreement regarding payment for tooling costs of accelerated production of M-60A1 tanks.
April 6, 1979 — Agreement concerning construction of air base facilities.
April 6, 1979 — Agreement concerning funding of air base facilities.
December 10, 1982 — General security of information agreement.
November 29, 1983 — Agreement creating the Joint Political Military Group and Joint Security Assistance Program.
December 14, 1987 — Memorandum of Agreement concerning the principles governing mutual cooperation in research and development, scientist and engineer exchange, and procurement and logistic support of defense equipment, with annexes and attachment.
April 21, 1988 — Memorandum of Agreement regarding joint political, security and economic cooperation.
May 24, 1988 — Mutual logistic support agreement.
April 1989 — Memorandum of Agreement between the Strategic Defense Initiative Organization and Israel´s Defense Ministry to develop a $35 million computer facility as part of the Arrow missile program.
September 8, 1989 — Memorandum of Understanding regarding transfers of materials, supplies and equipment for cooperative research and development programs.
January 22, 1991 — Agreement on the status of United States personnel.
June 1991 — Agreement pertaining to the Arrow Continuation Experiments (ACES), the second stage of the joint U.S.-Israel Arrow missile program.
October 18, 1991 — Memorandum of Understanding for a loan of a multi-sensor integrate system for the purpose of test and evaluation.
November 28, 1991 — Agreement on cooperation to combat illicit narcotics trafficking and abuse.
April 30, 1996 — Counterterrorism cooperation accord to enhance capabilities to deter, prevent, respond to and investigate international terrorist acts or threats of international terrorist acts against Israel or the United States.
July 18, 1996 — Memorandum of Agreement concerning the tactical high energy laser (THEL) advanced concept technology demonstration (ACTD).
April 30, 1996 — Counterterrorism cooperation accord
September 3, 1996 — Agreement for technology research and development projects.
January 28, 1998 — Treaty on mutual assistance in criminal matters.
February 10, 1998 — Acquisition and cross-servicing agreement with annexes.
Peace
February 27, 1976 — Memorandum of Agreement concerning assurances, consultations and United States policy on matters related to Middle East peace.
February 27, 1976 — Memorandum of Agreement concerning the United States role at any future Geneva peace conference.
March 26, 1979 — Memorandum of Agreement relating to assurances concerning Middle East peace.
March 26, 1979 — Agreement relating to the implementation of the Egyptian-Israeli peace treaty.
October 1, 1982 — Agreement relating to privileges and immunities for United States military members and civilian observers of the Multinational Force and Observers on leave in Israel.
October 31, 1998 — Memorandum of agreement concerning ballistic missile threats.
As partial compensation, the USA may sign a "technical-military" agreement with Macedonia, but it will NOT include "security guarantees".
Why so?
1. Security guarantees are granted exclusively in the wake of a war or a conflict and as a means to ascertain the implementation of an agreed settlement between the adversaries (e.g., a ceasefire or a peace agreement).
Excellent introduction to security guarantees
http://www.beyondintractability.org/essay/security_guarantees/
2. Security guarantees are granted in the framework of an international treaty. Such a treaty must be approved by 80 members of the Senate. There is no chance that Macedonia will garner such support in Congress. The Greek lobby is too strong and Macedonia is too inconsequential and immaterial to the geopolitical and military interests of the USA.
How the US signs Treaties and Agreements
http://www.llrx.com/features/ustreaty.htm
So, what will likely happen?
1. The USA will, perhaps, sign a technical-military agreement with Macedonia. Such agreements are very common, mean little, and constitute NO GUARANTEE to the signatories' security. Even Serbia has a technical-military agreement with NATO!
2. The USA will then pressure Macedonia into changing its name and entering NATO.
In effect, technically, Macedonia has RECEIVED AN INVITATION to join NATO in the Bucharest Summit. But the invitation is both conditional upon the resolution of the name issue and suspended until the dispute is resolved.
The Economics of Military Bases
http://samvak.tripod.com/pp145.html
EXAMPLES OF US SECURITY GUARANTEES
US security guarantees to Israel
http://www.mfa.gov.il/mfa/peace%20process/guide%20to%20the%20peace%20process/us-israel%20memorandum%20of%20agreement
US security guarantees to Japan (multiple agreements)
http://www.yale.edu/lawweb/avalon/diplomacy/japan/japan001.htm
http://en.wikisource.org/wiki/Treaty_of_Mutual_Cooperation_and_Security_between_Japan_and_the_United_States_of_America
http://www.learner.org/channel/workshops/primarysources/coldwar/docs/usjapan.html
US-UK Mutual Defence Agreement
http://www.basicint.org/nuclear/1958MDA.htm
Other US security guarantees
Inter-American Treaty of Reciprocal Assistance
http://www.oas.org/juridico/english/Treaties/b-29.html
Mutual Defense Treaty (US-Philippines)
https://www.mfp.usmc.mil/TeamApp/SJA/Topics/20051103095105/Philippines%20Mutual%20Defense%20Treaty.pdf
US Bilateral Treaties and Other Agreements
http://www.state.gov/documents/organization/83046.pdf
THE CASE OF ISRAEL
USA REFUSES to give Israel security guarantees 1963:
http://www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/jsource/US-Israel/FRUS9_20_63.html
Israel: U.S. Foreign Assistance
http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/mideast/IB85066.pdf
http://www.jcpa.org/brief/brief3-21.htm
http://www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/jsource/Peace/clintplan.html
4. Israel's Security
Clinton's commitment to Israel's security needs included a huge caveat. Security guarantees to Israel, according to the Clinton Parameters, "need not and should not come at the expense of Palestinian sovereignty, or interfere with Palestinian territorial integrity." For example, if Israel needed to retain an early-warning station on a West Bank hilltop, this principle could be used to preclude an Israeli claim. Essentially, it placed Palestinian national sensitivities above Israeli security needs. In contrast, in the Gaza Strip and the West Bank, Bush allows for Israel to continue to control airspace, territorial waters, and land passages, "pending agreements or other arrangements." This includes continuing Israeli control of the Philadelphia corridor between Gaza and Egyptian Sinai.
http://www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/jsource/US-Israel/MOUs.html#Security
Security & Defense
July 23, 1952 — Agreement relating to mutual defense assistance.
October 23, 1975 — Agreement regarding payment for tooling costs of accelerated production of M-60A1 tanks.
April 6, 1979 — Agreement concerning construction of air base facilities.
April 6, 1979 — Agreement concerning funding of air base facilities.
December 10, 1982 — General security of information agreement.
November 29, 1983 — Agreement creating the Joint Political Military Group and Joint Security Assistance Program.
December 14, 1987 — Memorandum of Agreement concerning the principles governing mutual cooperation in research and development, scientist and engineer exchange, and procurement and logistic support of defense equipment, with annexes and attachment.
April 21, 1988 — Memorandum of Agreement regarding joint political, security and economic cooperation.
May 24, 1988 — Mutual logistic support agreement.
April 1989 — Memorandum of Agreement between the Strategic Defense Initiative Organization and Israel´s Defense Ministry to develop a $35 million computer facility as part of the Arrow missile program.
September 8, 1989 — Memorandum of Understanding regarding transfers of materials, supplies and equipment for cooperative research and development programs.
January 22, 1991 — Agreement on the status of United States personnel.
June 1991 — Agreement pertaining to the Arrow Continuation Experiments (ACES), the second stage of the joint U.S.-Israel Arrow missile program.
October 18, 1991 — Memorandum of Understanding for a loan of a multi-sensor integrate system for the purpose of test and evaluation.
November 28, 1991 — Agreement on cooperation to combat illicit narcotics trafficking and abuse.
April 30, 1996 — Counterterrorism cooperation accord to enhance capabilities to deter, prevent, respond to and investigate international terrorist acts or threats of international terrorist acts against Israel or the United States.
July 18, 1996 — Memorandum of Agreement concerning the tactical high energy laser (THEL) advanced concept technology demonstration (ACTD).
April 30, 1996 — Counterterrorism cooperation accord
September 3, 1996 — Agreement for technology research and development projects.
January 28, 1998 — Treaty on mutual assistance in criminal matters.
February 10, 1998 — Acquisition and cross-servicing agreement with annexes.
Peace
February 27, 1976 — Memorandum of Agreement concerning assurances, consultations and United States policy on matters related to Middle East peace.
February 27, 1976 — Memorandum of Agreement concerning the United States role at any future Geneva peace conference.
March 26, 1979 — Memorandum of Agreement relating to assurances concerning Middle East peace.
March 26, 1979 — Agreement relating to the implementation of the Egyptian-Israeli peace treaty.
October 1, 1982 — Agreement relating to privileges and immunities for United States military members and civilian observers of the Multinational Force and Observers on leave in Israel.
October 31, 1998 — Memorandum of agreement concerning ballistic missile threats.