Hillary´s Convention Floor Bluff and the Democratic Party
Rizwan Ghani
March 31, 2008
Like Hillary´s Bosnian sniper fire bluff the call to fight her battle on Democratic Party Convention floor is a multipronged bluff: 1) Her campaign is trying to tell the Democratic Party leadership and the Democrat voters that Hillary is going nowhere. 2) It is message that she will revolt if party leadership tries to pressurize her to quit. 3) Hillary doesn´t care about the broader picture- Democratic Party versus Republican Party. If she doesn´t win, party is not her problem. 4) Obama lead in pledged delegates and victories in 48 caucuses and primaries is nothing. In simple terms, Hillary camp is undermining the math´s and staking it all on handful of ifs. If they win big, they will be back in the race. But they are not ready to accept that Hillary has already lost the race because Obama is leading pledged delegates and with ten states and 550 delegates left there is nothing she can do to turn things round.
I have listened to Democratic Party leadership and senior Democrats and it is clear to me that the issue of party´s presidential nominee will be settled well before July 1, the date given by party leader Howard Dean. Sen. John Kerry, Sen. Dod and Sen. Leahy are advocating early resolution of the race between Hillary and Obama in party´s larger interest.
I do not support Super Delegates voting to decide a matter that has been put to popular vote. In my article, Obama wins: let the super delegates wait http://www.americanchronicle.com/articles/51913 it was suggested that Super Delegates should not come into play before May. I still maintain that they should not vote. It is undemocratic. Otherwise also, following Pennsylvania and May 6 primaries things will be pretty clear for Hillary camp and lot of ifs will become irrelevant leaving party leaders to base their decision on math´s than Hillary camp rhetoric.
I however, think that party by keeping its option of using Super Delegates vote any time between May and June can help diffuse pressure from Hillary camp accusing party of cutting corners on the ongoing democratic process. The party should give her two more months (May 6) to try her luck, but beyond end of May, the party needs to draw the line to protect party and party candidate´s interests in national elections.
There is on legal restriction on advancing Super Delegates vote because they are independent. They are not tied to pledged delegates. The numbers will not matter because 200 or 550 delegates left depending when they are called to vote will be irrelevant because in neither case Super delegates will be called to vote as a last resort to buy time for the party. I am of the opinion that since neither of the candidates is expected to cross magic number of 2025 (or 2024) therefore advancement of Super Delegate vote can be defended. Hillary can help by withdrawing after May 6 if she fails to beat Obama in pledged delegate count. However, if Obama has lead of even single delegate she should respect public opinion. It is hoped she will avoid setting an undemocratic precedent by forcing super delegates to vote.
Super Delegates voting is undemocratic and should not be exercised but if party is forced to choose between waiting for party´s presidential nomination until August or resolve the issue before July 1, it may well be exercised in June if Hillary continues and pushes with her convention floor bluff. However, I still maintain that after May 6 primary math´s will be clear and Hillary should withdraw in favor of Obama and endorse him as party´s presidential nominee.
I still oppose flawed idea of Obama-Hillary dream team as I did many weeks back in my article Hillary´s dream team swan song. http://www.americanchronicle.com/articles/54510. It is not practical. Otherwise, also how can a loser offer a winner to be his or her vice president? The prerogative of making the offer always rests with the winner. Obama stands for change she represents status quo. Hillary is openly being dubbed as extension of McCain´s campaign who in turn is being called as continuation of Bush´s third term in office.
Hillary´s Bosnian sniper fire gaff has damaged her reputation. It has reinforced public perception about her. It is now official that there is a persistent pattern of untrue statements, fudging and inflated resume. The continuation of negative campaigning against Obama despite Hillary´s assurance, her claims of hands on involvement in resolving Ireland crisis, Hillary´s health care policy as first lady and detail of her 1100 page schedule as first lady are cases in point.
Sen. John Kerry while talking to ABC on Sunday quoted Wall Street Journal showing Obama ratings around 60 % as compared to Hillary´s 40%. It is now widely believed that Obama has emerged stronger from the Reverend Wright storm. I had however foretold on 20th March in my article Second Common Sense: Obama emerges presidential that Obama will emerge stronger. The polls are now confirming my observations. (http://www.americanchronicle.com/articles/55894) Obama´s strong poll ratings show that American voters don´t approve negative campaigns. It is hoped that message is clear to Hillary and McCain camps.
The delay in making public Hillary´s tax returns isn´t helping her campaign either. It is time the Hillary camp upholds demand of Obama camp and makes Hillary´s tax returns public.
In terms of some quarters pushing for re-doing of Florida and Michigan primaries, that will not happen. Democratic Party leadership is going to decide the fate of both states with help of national committee. In all probability delegates will be seated. How and how many for that we all will have to wait. The message is however clear that both states will not be rewarded for their behavior. It will be unjust to all those 48 states who have followed the primary and caucuses schedule. Therefore, it is clear that there will be no revote in both states. Otherwise also there should be no revote for multiple reasons including financial cost and party disciple. For details read Forget Florida, Michigan revote (http://www.americanchronicle.com/articles/54794).
The Democratic Party needs to settle the Hillary issue before second week of June to allow Obama single-mindedly focus on national election and Republicans. Democrats need to watch out for any surprises that Republicans might pull in Asia and ME to muster to gain political advantage in national elections and in the process undermine Democratic Party´s efforts to galvanize grassroots to hold Washington accountable. The reports that Republicans have been voting for Hillary to keep her in the race and ´cash for peace´ in Iraq show the severity of challenge for the party and Obama.
Finally, in my view Hillary´s convention floor fight is a bluff and if she really intends to play it in all probability party leadership will not hesitate to call the bluff with undemocratic-super delegates to help the party stay united and beat the Republicans in national elections. Hillary has April and first week of May to exercise her democratic right but beyond June it will hurt party future. It is therefore hoped that Hillary will play her role in keeping the party united and uphold her commitment to support Obama when the time comes. Lastly, Hillary and Obama stand for two different philosophies. The idea of dream team therefore should be scrapped. I still think that Bill Richardson or John Edwards is a better choice for the VP.
I have listened to Democratic Party leadership and senior Democrats and it is clear to me that the issue of party´s presidential nominee will be settled well before July 1, the date given by party leader Howard Dean. Sen. John Kerry, Sen. Dod and Sen. Leahy are advocating early resolution of the race between Hillary and Obama in party´s larger interest.
I do not support Super Delegates voting to decide a matter that has been put to popular vote. In my article, Obama wins: let the super delegates wait http://www.americanchronicle.com/articles/51913 it was suggested that Super Delegates should not come into play before May. I still maintain that they should not vote. It is undemocratic. Otherwise also, following Pennsylvania and May 6 primaries things will be pretty clear for Hillary camp and lot of ifs will become irrelevant leaving party leaders to base their decision on math´s than Hillary camp rhetoric.
I however, think that party by keeping its option of using Super Delegates vote any time between May and June can help diffuse pressure from Hillary camp accusing party of cutting corners on the ongoing democratic process. The party should give her two more months (May 6) to try her luck, but beyond end of May, the party needs to draw the line to protect party and party candidate´s interests in national elections.
There is on legal restriction on advancing Super Delegates vote because they are independent. They are not tied to pledged delegates. The numbers will not matter because 200 or 550 delegates left depending when they are called to vote will be irrelevant because in neither case Super delegates will be called to vote as a last resort to buy time for the party. I am of the opinion that since neither of the candidates is expected to cross magic number of 2025 (or 2024) therefore advancement of Super Delegate vote can be defended. Hillary can help by withdrawing after May 6 if she fails to beat Obama in pledged delegate count. However, if Obama has lead of even single delegate she should respect public opinion. It is hoped she will avoid setting an undemocratic precedent by forcing super delegates to vote.
Super Delegates voting is undemocratic and should not be exercised but if party is forced to choose between waiting for party´s presidential nomination until August or resolve the issue before July 1, it may well be exercised in June if Hillary continues and pushes with her convention floor bluff. However, I still maintain that after May 6 primary math´s will be clear and Hillary should withdraw in favor of Obama and endorse him as party´s presidential nominee.
I still oppose flawed idea of Obama-Hillary dream team as I did many weeks back in my article Hillary´s dream team swan song. http://www.americanchronicle.com/articles/54510. It is not practical. Otherwise, also how can a loser offer a winner to be his or her vice president? The prerogative of making the offer always rests with the winner. Obama stands for change she represents status quo. Hillary is openly being dubbed as extension of McCain´s campaign who in turn is being called as continuation of Bush´s third term in office.
Hillary´s Bosnian sniper fire gaff has damaged her reputation. It has reinforced public perception about her. It is now official that there is a persistent pattern of untrue statements, fudging and inflated resume. The continuation of negative campaigning against Obama despite Hillary´s assurance, her claims of hands on involvement in resolving Ireland crisis, Hillary´s health care policy as first lady and detail of her 1100 page schedule as first lady are cases in point.
Sen. John Kerry while talking to ABC on Sunday quoted Wall Street Journal showing Obama ratings around 60 % as compared to Hillary´s 40%. It is now widely believed that Obama has emerged stronger from the Reverend Wright storm. I had however foretold on 20th March in my article Second Common Sense: Obama emerges presidential that Obama will emerge stronger. The polls are now confirming my observations. (http://www.americanchronicle.com/articles/55894) Obama´s strong poll ratings show that American voters don´t approve negative campaigns. It is hoped that message is clear to Hillary and McCain camps.
The delay in making public Hillary´s tax returns isn´t helping her campaign either. It is time the Hillary camp upholds demand of Obama camp and makes Hillary´s tax returns public.
In terms of some quarters pushing for re-doing of Florida and Michigan primaries, that will not happen. Democratic Party leadership is going to decide the fate of both states with help of national committee. In all probability delegates will be seated. How and how many for that we all will have to wait. The message is however clear that both states will not be rewarded for their behavior. It will be unjust to all those 48 states who have followed the primary and caucuses schedule. Therefore, it is clear that there will be no revote in both states. Otherwise also there should be no revote for multiple reasons including financial cost and party disciple. For details read Forget Florida, Michigan revote (http://www.americanchronicle.com/articles/54794).
The Democratic Party needs to settle the Hillary issue before second week of June to allow Obama single-mindedly focus on national election and Republicans. Democrats need to watch out for any surprises that Republicans might pull in Asia and ME to muster to gain political advantage in national elections and in the process undermine Democratic Party´s efforts to galvanize grassroots to hold Washington accountable. The reports that Republicans have been voting for Hillary to keep her in the race and ´cash for peace´ in Iraq show the severity of challenge for the party and Obama.
Finally, in my view Hillary´s convention floor fight is a bluff and if she really intends to play it in all probability party leadership will not hesitate to call the bluff with undemocratic-super delegates to help the party stay united and beat the Republicans in national elections. Hillary has April and first week of May to exercise her democratic right but beyond June it will hurt party future. It is therefore hoped that Hillary will play her role in keeping the party united and uphold her commitment to support Obama when the time comes. Lastly, Hillary and Obama stand for two different philosophies. The idea of dream team therefore should be scrapped. I still think that Bill Richardson or John Edwards is a better choice for the VP.