Oscar Predictions

Robert Rouse
January 31, 2006
Okay, the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences have released the nominations for this year's Oscar races. Each year, one of my favorite things to do is make my own personal predictions on who will win in each category - and I'm well over 50% in accuracy over the years, so I thought I would put my guesses out for the world to see. This can either lead to glorious triumph or a horrifying trainwreck (especially since I haven't seen that many of this year's nominees).

I take a close look at other awards (SAG, DGA, Golden Globes, SWG, etc.), then I look at the buzz from various critics (who are never in total agreement) and finally form my own conclusions. Let's take a look at the nominees.



  • BEST PICTURE:



    • Brokeback Mountain




    • Capote






    • Crash






    • Good Night, and Good Luck.


    • Munich



I've only seen one of these films (Good Night, and Good Luck.), so I'm just going on buzz. "Capote" and "Munich" are the only others I'm really interested in seeing at this point. I know there seems to be a lot of interest in Canadian director Paul Haggis' "Crash" and "Brokeback Mountain" has been getting the biggest buzz. "Brokeback" was shut out at the Screen Actors Guild awards, but it's not just actors voting in this category, so I see "Brokeback Mountain" as the winner in this category.

  • DIRECTING:



    • Ang Lee - Brokeback Mountain

    • Bennett Miller - Capote

    • Paul Haggis - Crash

    • George Clooney - Good Night, and Good Luck

    • Steven Spielberg - Munich

For the first time in a long time all five Best Picture nominees also garnered spots for Directing. Several critics predicted Spielberg's "Munich" would be ignored by the Academy, so you have to know it is a dark horse. I think the "Brokeback Mountain" avalanche will continue with Ang Lee securing a win.

  • ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE:



    • Philip Seymour Hoffman - Capote


    • Terrence Howard - Hustle & Flow

    • Heath Ledger - Brokeback Mountain

    • Joaquin Phoenix - Walk The Line

    • David Strathairn - Good Night, And Good Luck.

I absolutely loved David Strathairn's performance in "Good Night, And Good Luck." but the big three to watch will be Philip Seymour Hoffman, Heath Ledger, and Joaquin Phoenix, leaving Terrence Howard out in the cold. When I saw "Walk the Line" I was stunned by the way Joaquin Phoenix seemed to channel the spirit of Johnny Cash, but in the end, the race will be a close call between Ledger and Hoffman, and since the SAG shut out of "Brokeback Mountain" may carry over in the acting category, I see Philip Seymour Hoffman walking off the stage with his first Oscar.

  • ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE:



    • Judi Dench - Mrs. Henderson Presents

    • Felicity Huffman - Transamerica

    • Keira Knightley - Pride & Prejudice

    • Charlize Theron - North Country

    • Reese Witherspoon - Walk The Line

Dame Judi Dench was really a late bloomer when it comes to film, but the veteran stage actress seems to be a perennial nominee in this category simply because of her seemingly effortless performances. Theron has already won and I think Keira Knightly was added just to fill out the category. This comes down to Felicity Huffman and Reese Witherspoon. Witherspoon won the SAG award and Huffman went home with a Golden Globe. This category is a real toss up, so I tossed up a coin. I'm going with Reese Witherspoon for "I Walk the Line".

  • ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE:



    • George Clooney - Syriana

    • Matt Dillon - Crash

    • Paul Giamatti - Cinderella Man

    • Jake Gyllenhaal - Brokeback Mountain

    • William Hurt - A History Of Violence

William Hurt is a filler. Matt Dillon is out of the running. Paul Giamatti always gives great performances, but this is another toss up. But because of the SAG backlash, I have to go with George Clooney over Jake Gyllenhaal.

  • ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE:



    • Amy Adams - Junbug






    • Catherine Keener - Capote




    • Frances McDormand - North Country




    • Rachel Weisz - The Constant Gardener






    • Michelle Williams - Brokeback Mountain






This is always one of the toughest categories to guess in and with five good actresses up for the award, it makes it even tougher. The SAG backlash plays a hand again by removing Michelle Williams from the pack. Amy Adams is a relative newcomer and Rachel Weisz is usually relegated to film fluff such as "The Mummy" and "Constantine". McDormand is another perennial nominee, so that leaves Catherine Keener, a great actress that is usually overlooked by the public at large. It's about time her genius is recognized. Catherine Keener is the winner.

  • MUSIC (SCORE):



    • Gustavo Santaolalla - Brokeback Mountain

    • Alberto Iglesias - The Constant Gardener

    • John Williams - Memoirs Of A Geisha

    • John Williams - Munich

    • Dario Marianelli - Pride & Prejudice

With John Williams up against John Williams, he will pretty much eliminate himself from the competition. This isn't an acting category, so I'll go with Gustavo Santaolalla for "Brokeback Mountain".

  • MUSIC (SONG):

    • "In The Deep" From Crash

    • "It's Hard Out Here For A Pimp" From Hustle & Flow

    • "Travelin' Thru" From Transamerica

I haven't heard any of these songs, but I can't see the older Academy voters going with a song that has the word "pimp" in the title. From the good word about "Crash", I think the voters will give a token award to the film and "In the Deep" will win.

  • CINEMATOGRAPHY:

    • Wally Pfister - Batman Begins

    • Rodrigo Prieto - Brokeback Mountain

    • Robert Elswit - Good Night, And Good Luck

    • Dion Bebee - Memoirs Of A Geisha

    • Emmanuel Lubezki - The New World

This award usually goes to a film with an epic landscape, and since "The New World" hasn't been seen by that many people, check off another win for "Brokeback Mountain" and Rodrigo Prieto.

  • ART DIRECTION:



    • Good Night, And Good Luck

    • Harry Potter And The Goblet Of Fire

    • King Kong

    • Memoirs Of A Geisha

    • Pride & Prejudice

Anothercoin toss - this one between "Memoirs of a Geisha" and "Good Night, and Good Luck." Heads it is, talking heads that is - congratulations to "Good Night, and Good Luck."



  • ANIMATED FEATURE:



    • Howl's Moving Castle

    • Tim Burton's Corpse Bride

    • Wallace & Gromit In The Curse Of The Were-Rabbit



Two CGI films vs. Hayao Miyazaki. Hayao Miyazaki has always been a favorite among animation geeks, so I'm turning Japanese and going with "Howl's Moving Castle".


  • COSTUME DESIGN:



    • Charlie And The Chocolate Factory

    • Memoirs Of A Geisha

    • Mrs. Henderson Presents

    • Pride & Prejudice

    • Walk The Line

"Memoirs of A Geisha". 'nuff said.



  • DOCUMENTARY FEATURE:



    • Darwin's Nightmare

    • Enron: The Smartest Guys In The Room

    • March Of The Penguins

    • Murderball

    • Street Fight

Politics start playing a part in this category. I'm not real sure why "Darwin's Nightmare" is included in this category since it was actually released in 2004, and if people want to see fish in a documentary, they'll watch them being eaten in the magnificent "March of the Penguins". The "Enron" film may be interesting, but the Academy likes to reward people overcoming disabilities, so a film that features paraplegics playing full contact rugby in wheelchairs should go over big. The winner - "Murderball".



  • DOCUMENTARY SHORT:



    • The Death Of Kevin Carter: Casualty Of The Bang Bang Club

    • God Sleeps In Rwanda

    • The Mushroom Club

    • A Note Of Triumph: The Golden Age Of Norman Corwin

The documentary categories must not have a strict policy on the date the films are released, so once again, a film from 2004 is included - "The Death Of Kevin Carter: Casualty Of The Bang Bang Club ". I haven't seen any of these films, but this film about Kevin Carter should easily win. In 1994, Carter took a haunting photo of a young starving Sudanese girl being stalked by a vulture. After taking the photo, he did nothing to help the girl. He was highly criticized - even though journalists had been warned about touching the victims because of disease. Still, Carter was anguished by his lack of action. Later in the year, he killed himself and left the following note: "I am haunted by the vivid memories of killings & corpses & anger & pain... of starving or wounded children, of trigger-happy madmen... The pain of life overrides the joy to the point that joy does not exist." "The Death Of Kevin Carter: Casualty Of The Bang Bang Club " will win.

  • FILM EDITING:



    • Cinderella Man

    • The Constant Gardener

    • Crash

    • Munich

    • Walk The Line

This will either go to "Crash" or "Munich" - I see them throwing a bone Spielberg's way and giving the award to "Munich".



  • MAKE-UP:



    • The Chronicles Of Narnia: The Lion, The Witch And The Wardrobe

    • Cinderella Man

    • Star Wars: Episode Iii Revenge Of The Sith



This is an easy category. And the winner is "The Chronicles Of Narnia: The Lion, The Witch And The Wardrobe".
  • SHORT FILM - ANIMATED:



    • Badgered

    • The Moon And The Son: An Imagined Conversation

    • The Mysterious Geographic Explorations Of Jasper Morello

    • 9

    • One Man Band

I have no idea, so I'll go with "9" as a wild guess. (plus it was John Lennon's special number)

  • SHORT FILM - LIVE ACTION:



    • Ausreisser (The Runaway)

    • Cashback

    • The Last Farm

    • Our Time Is Up

    • Six Shooter

Same as the other short film, a wild guess going to "The Last Farm".

  • SOUND EDITING:



    • King Kong

    • Memoirs Of A Geisha

    • War Of The Worlds

I loved "King Kong" and I thought the sound was great. That's my winner.



  • SOUND MIXING:



    • The Chronicles Of Narnia: The Lion, The Witch And The Wardrobe

    • King Kong

    • Memoirs Of A Geisha

    • Walk The Line

    • War Of The Worlds

Deja vu - I loved "King Kong" and I thought the sound was great. That's my winner.

  • WRITING - ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:



    • Brokeback Mountain

    • Capote

    • The Constant Gardener

    • A History Of Violence

    • Munich

Another notch in the "Brokeback Mountain" column.

  • WRITING - ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:



    • Crash

    • Good Night, And Good Luck.

    • Match Point

    • The Squid And The Whale

    • Syriana

Congratulations to George Clooney and Grant Heslov. You may remember Grant as the young Arab man who was always in the surveillance van with Tom Arnold in the film "True Lies". These two guys scripted a great piece of Americana into a wonderful film. "Good Night, and Good Luck." gets the win and my high recommendation for everyone to see it as soon as you can.



  • VISUAL EFFECTS:



    • The Chronicles Of Narnia: The Lion, The Witch And The Wardrobe

    • King Kong

    • War Of The Worlds



Tough choices, but I'll go with "King Kong".
  • FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM:



    • Don't Tell (Italy)

    • Joyeux No? (France)

    • Paradise Now (Palestine)

    • Sophie Scholl - The Final Days (Germany)

    • Tsotsi (South Africa)

I never see these films before the Oscars, but knowing the political leanings of Hollywood, I can see the Palestine entry "Paradise Now" as the winner.Okay, those are my choices. Whatever you do, don't bet the farm on my picks, but come back here the day after the Oscars to see how I did. Then you can either razz me for failing miserably or read my tearful acceptance speech where I will thank everyone I can before the orchestra starts to play.