The ´Front-Runner´ Merry-go-Round
Robert Fantina
January 14, 2008
It only took one caucus and one primary for the term ´front-runner´ to be rendered meaningless. A look at the past year in the context of the presidential election is interesting.
When New York Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton threw her bonnet into the ring, she was immediately proclaimed the front-runner. Her name recognition, her campaign organization, her fundraising ability and her ever-popular husband would, the pundits said, deliver the White House to her. Yes, Illinois Senator Barack Obama certainly had potential and was generating some excitement, and at some point in the future he would certainly be a viable candidate for president. Former South Carolina Senator and 2004 Vice-Presidential candidate John Edwards was merely a photogenic blip on the radar, not worth a great deal of attention, but not to be completely ignored either.
Then came the Iowa caucuses. Mr. Obama was victorious, followed by Mr. Edwards and then Mrs. Clinton. For four heady days, the Illinois senator enjoyed the mantle of front-runner. Newspapers and television moderators all talked about the death of Mrs. Clinton´s candidacy, and predicted that, after her expected defeat in New Hampshire, her supporters would abandon her sinking campaign ship like rats, and swim as fast as possible to the luxury liner captained by Mr. Obama. Mr. Edwards declared that his poor second place showing was a victory of sorts, and vowed to remain in the contest. A ´dear- in-the-headlights´ Mrs. Clinton appeared to be unaware of what hit her; indeed, most of those analyzing the election were similarly puzzled.
Next stop, New Hampshire. Mrs. Clinton won, followed by Mr. Obama and then Mr. Edwards. The rats paused on the gangplank of Mrs. Clinton´s ship as they saw Mr. Obama´s begin to take on water. The pumps on the good ship Clinton seemed to have finally started to work. Mr. Edwards´ rowboat could be seen as a speck through the binoculars, but not many people were looking for it anyway. Mr. Obama, so comfortable with his front-runner crown, had to surrender it back to Mrs. Clinton. Could anyone be criticized for thinking they had somehow stepped into a Christmas party where gifts were exchanged at will until the music stopped playing?
Mr. Obama was gracious in defeat; Mrs. Clinton exuberant in victory. Mr. Edwards once again defined his dismal showing as a victory and vowed to remain in the race, bringing his message to all and sundry. The fact that few people were listening did not daunt him.
Things were no less confusing on the Republican side. In Iowa, former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee, a dark horse just a month ago, pushed past former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, who had spent countless dollars (most of them his own), attempting to buy Iowa. But the fundamentalist vote, very strong in that state, rejected him for the more mainstream fundamentalist Christian (is there such a thing?), Mr. Huckabee. In tried and true fashion, Mr. Romney vowed to go on and share his arch-conservative message with the nation. The fact that most people tend to run in the other direction when he begins talking about his vision for America does nothing to stop him.
So as of January third, it was Mr. Huckabee´s turn to wear the Republican front-runner crown, which he did proudly, thanking his supporters and vowing to bless them from his future home in the White House. Like Mr. Obama on the Democratic side, little did he know that there was no point in getting too comfortable with that crown; it wouldn´t be his for long.
Arizona Senator John McCain won the New Hampshire Republican primary, snatching the front-runner crown from Mr. Huckabee as Mr. Romney made an ineffectual grab for it. The aging Mr. McCain, whose campaign was given up for lost six months ago, glowed in the bright spotlight of his victory. Mr. Romney again thanked his supporters, a hearty lot if ever there was one, and vowed to keep on. Mr. Huckabee was barely heard from.
Next stop, South Carolina, where Mr. Edwards expects it will be his turn to wear the Democratic crown. Mr. Obama may have some concerns about the south, at least partly due to the fact that it is Mr. Edward´s home turf. Mrs. Clinton, clinging with all her considerable might to the crown, hopes that her political organization will deliver the state for her, and enable her to continue her role as front-runner. That the Iowa citizens had the effrontery to grab it from her was inexcusable; it must not be allowed to happen again.
Mr. Romney hopes his conservative message will sell better in South Carolina than it did in Iowa or New Hampshire, but Mr. Huckabee expects to benefit from the votes of the misnamed Christian Right, which disdains Mr. Romney´s Mormonism. Mr. McCain hopes to ride his momentum (in U.S. political circles, one victory so qualifies), to another win there. Of course, former New York City mayor Rudolph Giuliani hopes to eventually make an impact, assuming the voters haven´t completely forgotten about him.
So, to summarize: prior to the first caucus, Mrs. Clinton was the Democratic front-runner, and Messrs McCain, Romney and Giuliani all struggled for the Republican crown. After Iowa, Mrs. Clinton tearfully handed the Democratic crown to Mr. Obama. A very puzzled Mr. McCain and Mr. Romney let go of the Republican one, and watched as the upstart Mr. Huckabee proudly put it on his head. Mr. Giuliani took the risk of sitting out Iowa, so he was not heard from.
Then on January 8, more shuffling was done. Mr. Huckabee tossed his crown to Mr. McCain as Mr. Romney watched in stunned disbelief, while Mr. Obama passed his back to Mrs. Clinton. Mr. Edwards simply did not know what hit him.
One always hesitates to make predictions about the future, but there are times when scientific information, historical precedent and other conditions make doing so possible. U.S. presidential primaries do not qualify. An inspiring speech, a tear in the eye, or an international incident outside the control of any candidate can all sway voters at the last minute. What the next dizzying series of primaries will bring is anybody´s guess. Who will arrive at their respective conventions with sufficient delegates to obtain the nomination will probably not be known until very close to the conventions.
In the interim, America and the rest of the world will be subjected to the meaningless designation of ´front-runner´ assigned to various candidates at various times, as the media scrambles to label each candidate for reasons that can only be guessed. There seems to be a tendency for voters to vote for the winner; thus, if Mr. McCain and Mrs. Clinton, for example, are decreed the ´front-runners,´ more campaign dollars and more voters will flow to them. If they lose the next primary, and, say, Mr. Huckabee and Mr. Obama become the new ´front-runners,´ one can expect their campaign contributions to increase.
The fact that Messrs Huckabee, McCain and Obama and Mrs. Clinton have each won one contest does not make any of them the ´front-runner.´ Once one Democrat and one Republican have earned several wins, more than any of their competitors, perhaps the ´front-runner´ designation can be assigned. But at present the contest within both parties is wide open, and the voters should make their selections based on their opinions of which of the candidates can best lead the U.S. out of its current, seven-years-long-and-counting nightmare. Categorizations such as ´front-runner´ should all be ignored as the worthless labels that they are.
When New York Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton threw her bonnet into the ring, she was immediately proclaimed the front-runner. Her name recognition, her campaign organization, her fundraising ability and her ever-popular husband would, the pundits said, deliver the White House to her. Yes, Illinois Senator Barack Obama certainly had potential and was generating some excitement, and at some point in the future he would certainly be a viable candidate for president. Former South Carolina Senator and 2004 Vice-Presidential candidate John Edwards was merely a photogenic blip on the radar, not worth a great deal of attention, but not to be completely ignored either.
Then came the Iowa caucuses. Mr. Obama was victorious, followed by Mr. Edwards and then Mrs. Clinton. For four heady days, the Illinois senator enjoyed the mantle of front-runner. Newspapers and television moderators all talked about the death of Mrs. Clinton´s candidacy, and predicted that, after her expected defeat in New Hampshire, her supporters would abandon her sinking campaign ship like rats, and swim as fast as possible to the luxury liner captained by Mr. Obama. Mr. Edwards declared that his poor second place showing was a victory of sorts, and vowed to remain in the contest. A ´dear- in-the-headlights´ Mrs. Clinton appeared to be unaware of what hit her; indeed, most of those analyzing the election were similarly puzzled.
Next stop, New Hampshire. Mrs. Clinton won, followed by Mr. Obama and then Mr. Edwards. The rats paused on the gangplank of Mrs. Clinton´s ship as they saw Mr. Obama´s begin to take on water. The pumps on the good ship Clinton seemed to have finally started to work. Mr. Edwards´ rowboat could be seen as a speck through the binoculars, but not many people were looking for it anyway. Mr. Obama, so comfortable with his front-runner crown, had to surrender it back to Mrs. Clinton. Could anyone be criticized for thinking they had somehow stepped into a Christmas party where gifts were exchanged at will until the music stopped playing?
Mr. Obama was gracious in defeat; Mrs. Clinton exuberant in victory. Mr. Edwards once again defined his dismal showing as a victory and vowed to remain in the race, bringing his message to all and sundry. The fact that few people were listening did not daunt him.
Things were no less confusing on the Republican side. In Iowa, former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee, a dark horse just a month ago, pushed past former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, who had spent countless dollars (most of them his own), attempting to buy Iowa. But the fundamentalist vote, very strong in that state, rejected him for the more mainstream fundamentalist Christian (is there such a thing?), Mr. Huckabee. In tried and true fashion, Mr. Romney vowed to go on and share his arch-conservative message with the nation. The fact that most people tend to run in the other direction when he begins talking about his vision for America does nothing to stop him.
So as of January third, it was Mr. Huckabee´s turn to wear the Republican front-runner crown, which he did proudly, thanking his supporters and vowing to bless them from his future home in the White House. Like Mr. Obama on the Democratic side, little did he know that there was no point in getting too comfortable with that crown; it wouldn´t be his for long.
Arizona Senator John McCain won the New Hampshire Republican primary, snatching the front-runner crown from Mr. Huckabee as Mr. Romney made an ineffectual grab for it. The aging Mr. McCain, whose campaign was given up for lost six months ago, glowed in the bright spotlight of his victory. Mr. Romney again thanked his supporters, a hearty lot if ever there was one, and vowed to keep on. Mr. Huckabee was barely heard from.
Next stop, South Carolina, where Mr. Edwards expects it will be his turn to wear the Democratic crown. Mr. Obama may have some concerns about the south, at least partly due to the fact that it is Mr. Edward´s home turf. Mrs. Clinton, clinging with all her considerable might to the crown, hopes that her political organization will deliver the state for her, and enable her to continue her role as front-runner. That the Iowa citizens had the effrontery to grab it from her was inexcusable; it must not be allowed to happen again.
Mr. Romney hopes his conservative message will sell better in South Carolina than it did in Iowa or New Hampshire, but Mr. Huckabee expects to benefit from the votes of the misnamed Christian Right, which disdains Mr. Romney´s Mormonism. Mr. McCain hopes to ride his momentum (in U.S. political circles, one victory so qualifies), to another win there. Of course, former New York City mayor Rudolph Giuliani hopes to eventually make an impact, assuming the voters haven´t completely forgotten about him.
So, to summarize: prior to the first caucus, Mrs. Clinton was the Democratic front-runner, and Messrs McCain, Romney and Giuliani all struggled for the Republican crown. After Iowa, Mrs. Clinton tearfully handed the Democratic crown to Mr. Obama. A very puzzled Mr. McCain and Mr. Romney let go of the Republican one, and watched as the upstart Mr. Huckabee proudly put it on his head. Mr. Giuliani took the risk of sitting out Iowa, so he was not heard from.
Then on January 8, more shuffling was done. Mr. Huckabee tossed his crown to Mr. McCain as Mr. Romney watched in stunned disbelief, while Mr. Obama passed his back to Mrs. Clinton. Mr. Edwards simply did not know what hit him.
One always hesitates to make predictions about the future, but there are times when scientific information, historical precedent and other conditions make doing so possible. U.S. presidential primaries do not qualify. An inspiring speech, a tear in the eye, or an international incident outside the control of any candidate can all sway voters at the last minute. What the next dizzying series of primaries will bring is anybody´s guess. Who will arrive at their respective conventions with sufficient delegates to obtain the nomination will probably not be known until very close to the conventions.
In the interim, America and the rest of the world will be subjected to the meaningless designation of ´front-runner´ assigned to various candidates at various times, as the media scrambles to label each candidate for reasons that can only be guessed. There seems to be a tendency for voters to vote for the winner; thus, if Mr. McCain and Mrs. Clinton, for example, are decreed the ´front-runners,´ more campaign dollars and more voters will flow to them. If they lose the next primary, and, say, Mr. Huckabee and Mr. Obama become the new ´front-runners,´ one can expect their campaign contributions to increase.
The fact that Messrs Huckabee, McCain and Obama and Mrs. Clinton have each won one contest does not make any of them the ´front-runner.´ Once one Democrat and one Republican have earned several wins, more than any of their competitors, perhaps the ´front-runner´ designation can be assigned. But at present the contest within both parties is wide open, and the voters should make their selections based on their opinions of which of the candidates can best lead the U.S. out of its current, seven-years-long-and-counting nightmare. Categorizations such as ´front-runner´ should all be ignored as the worthless labels that they are.