Will Eritrea’s Rogue Regime go to war with Ethiopia? Part I

There is a famous saying in Amharic-one of Ethiopia’s major languages which is also the official language of the federal government: “Kewedaqu Behuala Meferaget Lemelalat”. It is to mean that once you have fallen you should promptly give up or else you will end up suffering more scars, injuries and agony.

That is what is happening right now to Shaebiya-the one man, one party classically despotic regime in Eritrea. That regime should have given up power and its inherent conspiracies against Ethiopia and other neighboring countries all the way from Yemen, Sudan, Djibouti, Somalia down to Uganda and the Democratic Republic of Congo at the end of the 1998-2000 border war, if not any earlier.

Though it significantly affected Ethiopia’s economy, it is branded that the war, instigated by the Eritrean regime’s highly flawed and misconstrued invasion of sovereign Ethiopian lands incurred heavy political, economic and military blow on Shaebiya and the country it rules brutally as well. With no exaggeration Ethiopia has managed to immediately comeback from the ensuing economic deterioration within a couple of years and of course continued to register an overall exceptionally remarkable economic boom (http://www.businessinafrica.net/news/east_africa/244523.htm) for four years in row as it totally turned its attention on the fight against poverty- which has always been the main endeavor of Ethiopians since Derg’s (the military junta which ruled Ethiopia for nearly 2 decades and led the country in to an overall fallback) demise. Furthermore, economists agree with Ethiopian Premier’s projection that the country is well poised to continue on the healthy trend. It has also frequently been reported that Ethiopia’s economic growth is among few in Africa while it is unique in that Ethiopia’s case is independent of oil riches. See Research confirms Ethiopia's high growth (http://www.businessinafrica.net/news/east_africa/244523.htm).

On the contrary the consequence (http://www.state.gov/outofdate/bgn/e/19548.htm) on the Eritrean rabbit regime for its gravely mistaken attempt to snatch meat from a lion’s mouth has continued even getting worse and worse leading Eritrea to being one of earth’s handful of worst performing economies (http://www.economist.com/agenda/displaystory.cfm?story_id=10241592) with highest inflation rate, of course as it continued on its adventurism. That consequence would have been big enough lesson prompting it to behave, remain quiet and clean up its own messes as well as keep its evil hands off Ethiopia. Though it never actually did that, the regime nonetheless unconsciously learnt that it can and should never challenge Ethiopia directly, face to face. Perhaps that is because the regime knows there has never been any valiant and daring power that militarily succeeded to defeat Ethiopia leave alone attempting to invade it twice. I bet the rogue regime is on oath not to do that and I assume that is one big good lesson. And that has a well recorded reason.

Since time alone history has been attesting that whoever wished to invade Ethiopia has been demolished to ashes. Ottoman Turks, Egyptians, Mahdists and Italians tried to invade Ethiopian territories directly only to end up historic losers and have their soldiers go back home with age long dreadful dreams of how they were trodden by the gallant Ethiopians which they pass on to generations as has been proven by Italians. (Below is a short story on how it was manifested that Italians have passed on their historic lose and the subsequent dreadful dreams to many generations)

None of these invaders but Italy under Mussolini repeated that grave mistake of directly facing Ethiopians. Mussolini made Italy a classic example of “Kewedaqu Behuala Meferaget Lemelalat”. The story summarized is like this.

In 1896 Italians came to invade Ethiopia with better trained and equipped army thinking that Ethiopia was there simply “for the taking” (http://www.ethiopiancrown.org/adwa.htm) like the rest of Africa. True, Ethiopia did never have a regular army and was never prepared for such events. Militarily it was never a match to the Italians. But the then ruler of Ethiopia, Emperor Menelik II, called on all Ethiopians (who are very humble but naturally patriotic and warrior when provoked) to join the mission to send the Italians back home. On March 1 and 2, 1896 the gallant Ethiopians chased the Italians across the hills, valleys and gorges of Adwa at the infamous Battle of Adwa (http://www.ethiopiancrown.org/adwa.htm). In a matter of two days the modern and well equipped Italian army was crushed by the arrows and swords of ordinary Ethiopians. Italy caused -beyond itself- the whole of Europe and the entire white community an unprecedented shock with glorious black victory- the first recorded black victory over white colonizers. Italy was bound to give up and live with the shameful scar of Adwa.

Like I said, Italy ended up a historic loser and had its remnant soldiers go back home with age long dreadful dreams of how they were trodden by the gallant Ethiopians which they passed on to many generations, at least practically down to Mussolini’s generation. And that was really unfortunate for the inherited shame and dreadful dreams tempted the Fascist Mussolini to make the grave mistake his grand parents made and attempt to invade Ethiopia for a second time assuming he would undo the historic lose and shameful scar of Adwa but only to sustain more scars. Remember? “Kewedaqu Behuala Meferaget Lemelalat”

Shaebiya’s boss Isias Afewerki and his clique, the gangs in Asmara, seem determined to avoid being another example of that kind, at least twice. Isaias dreads picking the name Mussolini II for a second time. Thus, the gangs are hell bent to destabilize Ethiopia, of course indirectly, through some disgruntled, ill-advised and misinformed individuals and anti-peace elements some of whom are supposedly Ethiopians but have somehow lost their Ethiopian psychological makeup and identity, and through other international terrorists who spring up from Asmara, the African terrorist hub, and hide in Somalia to operate throughout the Horn of Africa under various names. These regional and international terrorists include the notorious Al-Shabab, the demised Islamic Courts Union (ICU), the terrorists’ realm known as ALLIANCE for SOMALIA'S RELIBERATION (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/6987916.stm)- a group publicly architected and established by Shaebiya in the eyes of the international community and the media and led by people like the internationally designated international terrorists SHEIK SHARIF SHEIK AHMED and SHEIK HASSAN DHAHIR AWEYS (http://www.amchron.com/articles/viewArticle.asp?articleID=37166) whom Shaebiya publicly boasts for hosting, financing, arming, training and providing any form of support deemed necessary, the self-acclaimed Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF) and Oromo Liberation Front (OLF)…. the list of terrorists goes on and on as much as Asmara’s cafeterias and Shaebiya owned villas but granted to these people as offices and residences.

Such activities of the regime pushed various media particularly in the west to name Eritrea “Small but pugnacious” (http://commentisfree.guardian.co.uk/simon_tisdall/2007/12/small_but_pugnacious.html), “terrorists’ den” (http://www.economist.com/world/africa/displaystory.cfm?story_id=9597711) and won the attention of the U.S. government prompting it to put Eritrea as the next nominee to be designated as a state sponsor of terrorism (http://www.asiantribune.com/index.php?q=node/7201). And the regime clearly grasped the message that its days are cut and seems to be highly desperate.

Desperate Measures

Although it is very clear that Shaebiya wants to stay on power forever and seems careful about such developments leading to its demise; it nevertheless seems tempted to keep its original behavior and even to try Ethiopia one last time before going to its grave. Like they say desperate measures are always blind. Another Amharic saying explaining the regime’s current state of affairs is “Yebesebese Zinab Ayiferam” -which means the wet is never afraid of the heavy rainfall. It can also mean one who has been exposed to modest rain is not afraid to walk in (face) the heavy, stormy rainfall.

This is manifested in a range of tricks the gang in Asmara has actively been involved in recently. Realizing that the frequent terrorist attempts it planed through the various pandemonium disciples it has created (mentioned above) to destabilize Ethiopia have foiled by Ethiopian security forces and that some of the disciples have finally come to their consciousness and fired their bosses in Asmara, the regime has come up with two new but inherently similar strategies. The strategies are inherently similar because their end purpose is to achieve the logically unattainable dream: ride over Ethiopia and become a regional and continental big bully. Shaebiya always day dreams that destroying Ethiopia, one of the big brothers of African countries in any way, would make it a legitimate big bully and puts it at the top of the continent.

Like PM Meles Zenawi clearly said in his parliamentary speech at the end of last Ethiopian year, Ethiopia and Ethiopians never have a problem with Shaebiya’s adventurism and wishes of becoming regional big bully unless those wishes affect Ethiopia and its interests. When the whishes pass the threshold and deter Ethiopia’s unwavering struggle against poverty, I know Shaebiya knows, you know and everybody knows that Ethiopia would put Shaebiya in to the grave it already has dug for itself and cement to make sure it won’t com out again. Though Shaebiya’s trepidation of that moment is crystal clear and wants to avoid it, some how it seems unable to control its unmeasured dreams and subsequently pushes itself towards the end of the threshold.

I will discus about the two strategies in part two. See you then.