Barack Obama: Africa Most Threatened by Climate Change

This article tries to generally explore the nexus between conflict and climate change and vice versa in Africa. In so doing, it uses US President Barrack Obama´s Accra speech as a point of entry. It cites concrete examples from some Horn of African countries and localities.

"Africa gives off less greenhouse than any other part of the world, but it is the most threatened by climate change. A warming climate will spread disease, shrink water resources, and deplete crops, creating conditions that produce more famine and conflict," stated Barack Obama in his first speech to the sub-Saharan Africa as the President of the United States of America from Ghana, Accra.

Regarding African climate, this text is highly significant in that the President not only demonstrates his precise understanding of the apocalyptic climate peril Africa is experiencing and the need for swift global actions to avert it, but also pinpoints to the nexus between conflict, climate change and famine on the continent. As an observer of the region of the Horn of Africa in general and Ethiopia in particular, when I heard Obama talk about the threats of climate change to Africa, I could easily visualize and relate the story to the climate peril that is unfolding and the conflicts in south Oromia and Somali regions amongst pastoralist neighbors in Ethiopia .

In primitive agrarian economies such as Ethiopia there are recurring signs of the nexus between climate change and conflict.

In March 2009, in precisely two days, heavily armed Garri Somalis raided Borana Oromo villages and massacred over 300 civilians and internally displaced an estimated 70,000 defenseless Oromo civilians over presumably scarce water resource from boreholes. BBC news reported on this conflict in a story titled "Water pipes spark Ethiopian conflict", but the story downplayed the nature of the conflict and framed it as just another "primitive battle" among Africans on water points. The BBC story did not clearly identify the actors in the conflict and the invisible hands behind the conflict, contrary to the popular belief that the conflict was orchestrated by the Ethiopian government, which was accused of arming neighboring Somali tribes to invade Oromo areas. This is a very common method of divide- and- rule some tyrannical governments, including Ethiopia, follow to stay in power in Africa.

It is not unheard of that some governments in Africa burn down villages and forests in order to contain dissent or rebellion. This was recently seen in major scenes of war-crimes such as Darfur in Sudan, Oromia and Ogaden in Ethiopia.

For this political speech, President Obama deserves a great credit for generally stating the relationship between conflicts and climate change other than the obvious natural causes of climate change. Do major scale national and international conflicts in the Horn of Africa cause or significantly contribute to climate change? Investigating the correlation and / or causal relationship between conflicts and climate change is up to academic authorities in climate change, but it is my view that the chronic mega conflicts between government and rebels, governments and governments, factions and factions over scarce resources may have substantially contributed to the irreparable destruction of the natural environment thereby rapidly worsening climate crisis on the continent. The question of climate change for Africa is "to live or not to live"—it is a fight to prevent continental self-annihilation in which the human factor is enormous.

Some results from scientific investigations conducted on the continent to asses climate change abundantly make it clear that climate change in Africa is not just some kind of legend or fairytale, but a harsh daily reality in many ways. A Gallup survey in several sub-Saharan African countries finds that Africa may be noticing effects of climate change. The study notes climate change is anticipated to harshly affect agricultural production and food security on the continent. The regional (sub-Saharan) average for respondents who believe climate is getting warmer is 69%; and the regional average for respondents who perceive life will be harder if climate changes is 63 %; and the regional average for those who believe deserts are expanding is 52%. Even with a sampling error of +/- 5 % and some expected questionnaire bias, we see that Africans have woken up to the harsh reality that things are never going to be the same for themselves and their children.

The worst internal and international wars, conflicts, and genocides as result of diminishing water and food supply is yet to come unless drastic measures are taken to stop them. Unfortunately, undemocratic and unelected governments in Africa are likely to blame internal conflicts on climate change to avoid responsibility for their bad governance and to weaken the support base of perceived ethnic political opponents.

The acclaimed United Nations author, Michael Klare, in his book titled "Resource Wars" predicts the possibility of national and international conflicts amongst countries up and downstream the Nile River Basin such as Egypt, Sudan, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Somalia, Kenya, Uganda, and so on. International rivers are just one of the factors in domestic and international conflicts that have occurred or yet to occur in Africa.

Klare describes many more terrifying dooms: "…the world´s natural forests are disappearing at the rate of about 0.5% a year—equivalent to the loss of forest the size of England and Wales…70 % of the world´s tropical dry forest has been obliterated."

In order to survive, Africa needs to fight climate change alongside its global partners. There need to be a more robust international media presence in worst affected localities in the Horn of Africa. Such media must be willing to dig for specific details and contextualise those details according to local realities and actors. It is good to see documentary films of the troubles climate change is spelling for polar bears and other beautiful land and sea animals, but the troubles that climate change is spelling on human beings in Africa is totally ignored. Symbols and images of the harsh effects of climate change should rather be diversified than just be restricted to cultures that have polar bears and ice . This is especially up to Africans and also up to those globally funding climate change campaigns.

Individuals, western governments and organizations leading the global climate change campaign need to systematically integrate methods that give due consideration to the "conflict factor" in climate change in the Horn of Africa. US President Barack Obama believes in the power of young people and the change from bottom-up—this may be a great model that can be adopted in major global climate change policies and campaigns towards Africa.

Notes and Links:

BBC News. Water pipe sparks Ethiopian conflict. Retrieved 07/15/2009 from,

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/7929104.stm

Gallup. African may be noticing effects of climate change. Retrieved 5/28/2009 from,

http://www.gallup.com/poll/103105/Africans-May-Noticing-Effects-Climate-Change.aspx

Klare, M.2001. Resource wars: the new landscape of global conflicts. New York: Henry Holt.

VOA News. Text of President Obama's speech to Ghana's parliament. Retrieved Tuesday, July 14, 2009 from

http://www.voanews.com/english/2009-07-11-voa6.cfm

Picture: Courtesy of BBC News