AS US TROOPS BEGIN TO LEAVE IRAQ, WHAT ABOUT PHASE 2 AND BEYOND?
Gary Ater
July 07, 2009
…Iraqi´s celebrate pull-back of US troops
The reason for the latest concerns for peace in Iraq is the renewed realization that the Muslim Shiia´s have been at war with the Muslim Sunni´s as far back as the 6th century. And today, many of the Sunni´s that were in charge during Saddam Hussein´s oppressive regime, now feel that they are currently being punished for Saddam´s past torture of the Shiia, by the new "ruling-majority" Shiites.
With the US troops pulling back, some of the Sunni´s that were being paid with US dollars to stop fighting with the ruling Shiites, may go back to their old ways. It is believed that some unemployed Sunni´s have already become insurgents once more, since their monthly US payments have become less and less.
And as the US troops pull out of the cities, the Shiite Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki is continuing to act more and more like a ruling dictator. He now has a network of security agencies that report directly to him, which is reminiscent of Saddam´s private police and his Republican Army. He has also built a countrywide patronage system to bribe and pay off his tribal allies, in anticipation of the up-coming 2010 elections.
Just as Saddam did, Maliki has shown no reservations against using the army, the police, and the secret agencies he controls to eliminate his potential election competition. According to news reports, he's has also used "divide-and-conquer" tactics to outflank the Sunni-led Sahwa movement.
This was the group that agreed to stop rebelling and to also accept US dollars to take on the al Qaeda in Iraq. They are also known as the "Awakening" or the Sons of Iraq, and the Prime minister is driving some of them back into armed resistance and others into strong resentments or at least, a fear for their lives.
Day after day, it is continuing to look to the local Sunni´s like a "Shiia version" of; A New Saddam - Part II.
In other words, Maliki is beginning to appear as the "American" dictator just as the ruthless "Shah of Iran" was, after he was installed and supported by the US and Western nations back in the 50´s and 60´s.
On top of all this, as a long-time vocal Shiia, Maliki also has close (but difficult) ties to their next door neighbor, Iran, which is also a Shiite Muslim nation. And with Iran now being confirmed as a virtual; religious, fundamentalist-run, Shiia military dictatorship, it is expected that due to their past war with Iraq, Iran will also act ruthlessly toward Iraq. So if Maliki wants to stay in power, he will pretty much have to go along with Iran´s religious leaders.
Most Americans today are not aware that the numbers of Iraqi´s, both Shiite´s and Sunni´s, that have died since the invasion by the US, is tens-of–thousands more than died, or fled, while under the 35 year oppressive rule of Saddam. This is not to say that Saddam was a "nice guy", but it does put the current situation with Iraq and Iran into a different perspective.
And it is disturbing that President Bush was so ignorant about the different tribes within Iraq before he decided to go after Saddam. Most Americans are not aware that President Bush needed to have Muslim experts come to the White House, after the US invaded Iraq, just to fully explain the difference between Sunni Muslims, Shiite Muslims and the Kurds.
These experts had to explain Iraq´s history to the president and exactly how much the two Muslim sects disliked each other and that they had been in a religious war for almost 1,400 years. Yes, Bush knew that there were Shiites, Sunnis and Kurds in Iraq, but he was totally unaware of these details of their histories.
For President Bush to think that the US could invade Iraq and quickly install democracy in the middle of a region filled with centuries of warring Muslim tribes, is bizarre at best, and tragic at worst.
But for today, as much as we all want our troops to come home from Iraq or to eventually win in Afghanistan, there's little to immediately celebrate at this time about the US pullback in Iraq. It is now just a "wait and see" situation.
The reality in Iraq is that Maliki is still dependent on the United States.
Despite his pushing for the US to withdraw from Iraq's cities, Maliki desperately needs America´s backing in order to remain in power and to build up his armed forces. And Maliki is also dependent on the good will of Iran, who could topple him instantly if he crossed Iran´s religious leaders in Tehran.
Unfortunately, with all that´s on President Obama´s domestic plate, Obama really doesn't want to think about Iraq right now.
With all that´s going on in the America today, it´s almost as if he wished that Iraq and the insurgents would just go away. This would allow him to worry about the current problems in domestic America that Bush & Co. has left him. And he would then just have to deal with No. Korea, Iran, Pakistan, Afghanistan and the Israel-Palestine situation. But of course, Iraq and subsequently, Guantanamo Bay, are not going away soon, if ever at all.
During the election campaign, Obama had promised to convene an international, United Nations conference on Iraq. And that's exactly what should still happen. The goal of the meeting should to be to first, rewrite Iraq's bizarre Constitution, which currently empowers the ruling ethnic and sectarian parties who wrote it.
Short of that, Iraq is still likely to explode at some point, probably this year, in advance of their 2010 elections, or soon thereafter. But as the US presence in Iraq shrinks, Maliki will have less and less incentive to cooperate with any UN effort. As it is, Maliki will fight the UN and it may already be too late.
The US, the UN and Obama must eventually come to an understanding with Iran over Iraq. This is why there is such a push for US diplomacy with Iran. The final agreement must be one that involves the full participation of Iraq's neighbors, including Saudi Arabia, Syria, and Turkey, so that neither the United States nor Iran can be allowed to use Iraq as a battlefield for their competing ambitions in the region.
Today, the chances of this occurring are virtually non-existent under the current regime in Iran. If the latest election "up-rising" in Iran continues to grow, as it is now showing, with some of the high level Iranian clerics agreeing that the election was bogus, the people of Iran might end up making some regime changes of their own.
But don't hold your breath and as I had said, until then, the long-term resolution of Iraq, Iran, and Afghanistan will continue to be a very long and grueling "wait and see" situation.
Unfortunately, this current "conundrum" is an example of what happens when an ignorant leader of the world´s strongest military nation, preemptively invades a Middle Eastern nation, without an exit plan or strategy, or even an "Optional Plan B".
Now, President Obama is being forced to pick up the pieces and hopefully and eventually clean up this Middle-Eastern mess that actually started over 1,400 years ago. I wish the president good luck, but there is not much real hope for a complete success.
Yes, good luck Mr. President. But for now, I´m afraid we will just have to continue to; "wait and see".
Copyright G.Ater 2009-07-05
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