Nepal´s CA Polls facing continued insecurity
Surya B. Prasai
March 13, 2008
Just when the NC´s President and Nepalese Prime Minister Girija Prasad Koirala released the 32 page election manifesto of the Nepali Congress, party vying for the Constituent Assembly elections scheduled on April 10, 2008, a spate of insecurity has once again surrounded the democratic voting process, which many anticipated just a few weeks back would be held in a peaceful atmosphere based on the aspirations of the Nepalese people.
The NC manifesto released at its party headquarters in Lalitpur this week, states it will opt for multi-party 'federal democratic republic´ instead of monarchy. Two years back, Mr. Gopal Man Shrestha, a powerful aide to Mr. Sher Bahadur Deuba, number two successor to Mr. Koirala, and a strong pro-American voice in Nepal, had strongly argued for a Presidential system of government giving the King the first option to become the country´s first President. At that time, many within the NC had rejected both a federal system of governance as much as a republican presidential system. However, some 40 powerful dissenting voices within the NC, who have caused earlier splits within the oldest Democratic Party in Nepal, are still known to be in favor of the King. Prime Minister Koirala in officially releasing the NC manifesto has been clever enough not to give his own opinion, which many believe might change again at the last moment. If the NC rejects Monarchy fully, it is sure as certain that the Maoists and moderate democratic forces will form a new alliance with him, thus upsetting the NC´s road to power after the elections. Nepal´s neighbors and international political strategists, including academicians are keenly studying these trends.
When Nepal got its first post 1990 democratic government, Prime Minister Koirala had rallied strongly for a Constitutional Monarchy system of government and a Westminster type of parliament, which the Nepalese refer to as the British Model. Mr. Koirala is also a strict follower of his elder brother B.P. Koirala´s national reconciliation policy intertwining people´s power with constitutional monarchy to form a strong Nepali democratic bond. About three months back, Mr. Koirala again gave the same impression to the Nepali media showing preference for the 1990 Constitution which favors a Constitutional Monarch. Mr. Koirala´s other surviving colleague in the Nepali Congress, former Prime Minister Krishna Prasad Bhattarai too has stated in Kathmandu during a birthday bash that he believes Monarchy must be retained another 300 years. The Terai parties are also known to be strictly pro-Hindu Monarch and nearly half the votes in the oncoming CA Poll are coming from the Terai. Similarly more than half the voters are women, and the women are known to be religiously inclined to preserve monarchy. This has created some fear syndromes in the major political parties, particularly the Left, since the Terai parties only recently signed a peace deal broadcasting an equally catchy and satiric ´republican agenda´ favoring a Terai president, which is considered a major threat to other republican touting parties. The Terai parties are also known to be close to India, since it naturally borders India to the south.
The New NC manifesto makes some delineation on federal units in consideration of geography, population, economic opportunities, relation between federal units, language, ethnicity and culture, but fails to go more in-depth on representational considerations which bothers Terai rights activists. The Terai parties had also recently called for their own indigenous rule of law in the border district surrounding India. In signing the Peace Accords, they virtually made the SPA bow down to their wishes, one after another. The Maoists in introducing their own republican manifesto last week have made similar provincial delineation on basis of ethnicity and development resources. The UML leftist party led by Mr. Madhav Kumar Nepal, which is vying strongly against the Maoists and the NC, is also opting for a Presidential republican system but with a powerful Prime Minister. This time, Mr. Nepal is leaving no election stone unturned to ensure that his party wins the election with clear victory in the Mountain and mid-Hilly regions. He hails from Rauthat which is in the Terai, and he is expected to clinch victory like all other top SPA leaders, though it is will still be a long shot from becoming Prime Minister.
The interesting aspect of the CA Poll 2008 is while the political parties were formerly defragmented on ideological grounds; they are now all talking about an inclusive, impartial voting process. Despite superficial bonhomie in Kathmandu, recently there have been kidnappings of political candidates, beatings, arson and looting of party cadres which smack of intra-party jealousy, and future fissures after the CA Poll. The U.S. India, China, and the E.U have all worked hard to make the CA Poll happen this time around.
Meanwhile the Asian Network for Free Elections (ANFREL) has expressed concerns about election related violence and intimidation, both in the Terai by armed groups, and by party cadres across the country. Mr. Ichal Supriadi, in a briefing to media persons before deploying its 20 long term observers across the country, stated on behalf of ANFREL, that it would strongly condemn violent acts, whether it is against Election Commission staffs, candidates or party supporters. ANFREL has one of the largest numbers of international observers in Nepal followed by the Carter Center, Human Rights Watch, Amnesty International, International Crisis Group, Forum Asia, the European Union and Universal Human Rights Network. The UN Mission in Nepal (UNMIN) has also placed fixed term UN observers, who are working with EC partners and other groups to make the CA Poll happen.
Related to the election environment, various reports including from the UN showed that the human rights situation in Nepal had improved in the past year. However, the U.S. State Department, whose weighty analysis is considered quite blunt and resounding on human rights issues globally, has once again criticized Nepalese HR violations in the past year in its March 13 released report. It notes that the interim Nepalese government twice postponed elections for the constituent assembly after the November 2006 peace agreement had ended the decade-long insurgency. It cites abuses by security forces decreasing significantly, but that the Maoists and the cadres of the Maoist-affiliated Young Communist League, as well as other small, often ethnically-based armed groups, are continuously engaged in committing grave human rights abuses and crimes. They have been reported as engaging in attacks against civilians, government officials, members of particular ethnic groups, and against each other, despite the prospective peace accord leading to a democratic restructuring scenario. The report also states that lacking political backing, the Nepal Police were often reluctant to intervene, particularly against the Maoists. The Nepal Government has already appointed five national commissioners to the Nepal National Human Rights Commission in September, but despite has failed to release information on the whereabouts of approximately 700 disappeared persons identified in 2006 by the NHRC and the UN. The State Department has mentioned that impunity for human rights violators, threats against the media, arbitrary arrest, and lengthy pre-trial detention. The State Department´s human rights violations record is also critical of Pakistan, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka.
Given the fragile nature of the seven party coalitions, Nepali political analysts believe that unless strict security is guaranteed by the state, it might be difficult for the Nepalese Prime Minister to convince the voters to come out in larger droves to participate in casting their free and fair vote. Nepal´s Maoist leader Prachanda recently made a serious political remark that the Nepal Presidency is already booked by him in advance, and therefore the other political leaders might think about finding something else. Prachanda further reinforced his views that he was already the President in the Nepalese people´s hearts, unlike others who claimed themselves possible aspirants in the media. This prompted an acerbic reaction from his chief antagonist, Mr. Madhav Kumar Nepal, that Prachanda must have only been imagining himself a President on the election wall.
The NC manifesto released at its party headquarters in Lalitpur this week, states it will opt for multi-party 'federal democratic republic´ instead of monarchy. Two years back, Mr. Gopal Man Shrestha, a powerful aide to Mr. Sher Bahadur Deuba, number two successor to Mr. Koirala, and a strong pro-American voice in Nepal, had strongly argued for a Presidential system of government giving the King the first option to become the country´s first President. At that time, many within the NC had rejected both a federal system of governance as much as a republican presidential system. However, some 40 powerful dissenting voices within the NC, who have caused earlier splits within the oldest Democratic Party in Nepal, are still known to be in favor of the King. Prime Minister Koirala in officially releasing the NC manifesto has been clever enough not to give his own opinion, which many believe might change again at the last moment. If the NC rejects Monarchy fully, it is sure as certain that the Maoists and moderate democratic forces will form a new alliance with him, thus upsetting the NC´s road to power after the elections. Nepal´s neighbors and international political strategists, including academicians are keenly studying these trends.
When Nepal got its first post 1990 democratic government, Prime Minister Koirala had rallied strongly for a Constitutional Monarchy system of government and a Westminster type of parliament, which the Nepalese refer to as the British Model. Mr. Koirala is also a strict follower of his elder brother B.P. Koirala´s national reconciliation policy intertwining people´s power with constitutional monarchy to form a strong Nepali democratic bond. About three months back, Mr. Koirala again gave the same impression to the Nepali media showing preference for the 1990 Constitution which favors a Constitutional Monarch. Mr. Koirala´s other surviving colleague in the Nepali Congress, former Prime Minister Krishna Prasad Bhattarai too has stated in Kathmandu during a birthday bash that he believes Monarchy must be retained another 300 years. The Terai parties are also known to be strictly pro-Hindu Monarch and nearly half the votes in the oncoming CA Poll are coming from the Terai. Similarly more than half the voters are women, and the women are known to be religiously inclined to preserve monarchy. This has created some fear syndromes in the major political parties, particularly the Left, since the Terai parties only recently signed a peace deal broadcasting an equally catchy and satiric ´republican agenda´ favoring a Terai president, which is considered a major threat to other republican touting parties. The Terai parties are also known to be close to India, since it naturally borders India to the south.
The New NC manifesto makes some delineation on federal units in consideration of geography, population, economic opportunities, relation between federal units, language, ethnicity and culture, but fails to go more in-depth on representational considerations which bothers Terai rights activists. The Terai parties had also recently called for their own indigenous rule of law in the border district surrounding India. In signing the Peace Accords, they virtually made the SPA bow down to their wishes, one after another. The Maoists in introducing their own republican manifesto last week have made similar provincial delineation on basis of ethnicity and development resources. The UML leftist party led by Mr. Madhav Kumar Nepal, which is vying strongly against the Maoists and the NC, is also opting for a Presidential republican system but with a powerful Prime Minister. This time, Mr. Nepal is leaving no election stone unturned to ensure that his party wins the election with clear victory in the Mountain and mid-Hilly regions. He hails from Rauthat which is in the Terai, and he is expected to clinch victory like all other top SPA leaders, though it is will still be a long shot from becoming Prime Minister.
The interesting aspect of the CA Poll 2008 is while the political parties were formerly defragmented on ideological grounds; they are now all talking about an inclusive, impartial voting process. Despite superficial bonhomie in Kathmandu, recently there have been kidnappings of political candidates, beatings, arson and looting of party cadres which smack of intra-party jealousy, and future fissures after the CA Poll. The U.S. India, China, and the E.U have all worked hard to make the CA Poll happen this time around.
Meanwhile the Asian Network for Free Elections (ANFREL) has expressed concerns about election related violence and intimidation, both in the Terai by armed groups, and by party cadres across the country. Mr. Ichal Supriadi, in a briefing to media persons before deploying its 20 long term observers across the country, stated on behalf of ANFREL, that it would strongly condemn violent acts, whether it is against Election Commission staffs, candidates or party supporters. ANFREL has one of the largest numbers of international observers in Nepal followed by the Carter Center, Human Rights Watch, Amnesty International, International Crisis Group, Forum Asia, the European Union and Universal Human Rights Network. The UN Mission in Nepal (UNMIN) has also placed fixed term UN observers, who are working with EC partners and other groups to make the CA Poll happen.
Related to the election environment, various reports including from the UN showed that the human rights situation in Nepal had improved in the past year. However, the U.S. State Department, whose weighty analysis is considered quite blunt and resounding on human rights issues globally, has once again criticized Nepalese HR violations in the past year in its March 13 released report. It notes that the interim Nepalese government twice postponed elections for the constituent assembly after the November 2006 peace agreement had ended the decade-long insurgency. It cites abuses by security forces decreasing significantly, but that the Maoists and the cadres of the Maoist-affiliated Young Communist League, as well as other small, often ethnically-based armed groups, are continuously engaged in committing grave human rights abuses and crimes. They have been reported as engaging in attacks against civilians, government officials, members of particular ethnic groups, and against each other, despite the prospective peace accord leading to a democratic restructuring scenario. The report also states that lacking political backing, the Nepal Police were often reluctant to intervene, particularly against the Maoists. The Nepal Government has already appointed five national commissioners to the Nepal National Human Rights Commission in September, but despite has failed to release information on the whereabouts of approximately 700 disappeared persons identified in 2006 by the NHRC and the UN. The State Department has mentioned that impunity for human rights violators, threats against the media, arbitrary arrest, and lengthy pre-trial detention. The State Department´s human rights violations record is also critical of Pakistan, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka.
Given the fragile nature of the seven party coalitions, Nepali political analysts believe that unless strict security is guaranteed by the state, it might be difficult for the Nepalese Prime Minister to convince the voters to come out in larger droves to participate in casting their free and fair vote. Nepal´s Maoist leader Prachanda recently made a serious political remark that the Nepal Presidency is already booked by him in advance, and therefore the other political leaders might think about finding something else. Prachanda further reinforced his views that he was already the President in the Nepalese people´s hearts, unlike others who claimed themselves possible aspirants in the media. This prompted an acerbic reaction from his chief antagonist, Mr. Madhav Kumar Nepal, that Prachanda must have only been imagining himself a President on the election wall.
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